The battleground state that has proven to be the most unpredictable in this year’s US election is Nevada. The wide disparity in polling results in Nevada has made it challenging to gauge the political landscape. Factors such as language barriers, differences in work schedules compared to other regions, and the influx of new residents have put the Democratic stronghold of Nevada at risk.
According to Bloomberg News and Morning Consult polls conducted in May, the support for Biden and Trump in Nevada was neck and neck, while another poll by The New York Times and Siena College showed Republicans leading by 12 percentage points. This significant difference in polling results is unprecedented among battleground states.
Moreover, Nevada is experiencing one of the fastest population changes in the country, with Las Vegas being the demographic hub. As a result, Nevada is emerging as the biggest uncertainty in this year’s election.
Historically, Nevadans have voted for Democratic candidates in presidential elections since 2008. However, Biden’s winning margin in Nevada decreased significantly in 2020, to less than 3 percentage points. In this year’s election, issues like inflation and high unemployment rates have taken center stage in Nevada, which is one of the states with the highest unemployment rates in the country. The average of Nevada polls by RealClearPolitics shows Trump leading by 5.7 percentage points.
Polling experts point out the challenges of conducting surveys in Nevada due to the 24-hour work culture in Las Vegas, making it difficult to reach shift workers between 5 PM and 9 PM when polling organizations typically contact voters. Approximately 23% of Nevada workers are employed in the food and hospitality industry, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, noted that contacting Nevada voters for surveys can be particularly challenging due to varying work schedules compared to other regions, among other factors. Language barriers also play a role, as about 23% of eligible voters in Nevada have a primary language other than English. This language diversity poses a unique challenge in reaching all voters effectively.
Both Trump and Biden have made multiple visits to Nevada this year in a bid to secure the state’s six electoral votes. Campaign teams face the daunting task of deciding how much advertising to invest in and how much grassroots campaigning to engage in, given the uncertain electoral outcome in Nevada.
Nevada continues to witness rapid shifts in its voter demographics compared to other battleground states, with 19% of eligible voters experiencing changes in their population since the 2020 election. Factors contributing to this demographic turnover include inter-state voter migration, a younger electorate, and new US citizens.