As the 2024 US presidential election approaches less than a week away, nearly 60 million Americans have already participated in early voting, according to statistics from the Election Lab at the University of Florida.
By Wednesday (October 30) evening Eastern Time, a total of 59,088,325 voters across the US had cast their early ballots, representing more than one-third of the total voter turnout in the 2020 US presidential election. It remains to be seen whether this enthusiastic early voting will have an impact on the election outcome.
In 2020, the COVID pandemic led to a surge in mail-in voting, with Democratic voters more inclined to utilize mail-in or early voting options. However, a shift appears to be occurring in this year’s election, driven by the efforts of former President Trump and many Republican officials, as indicated by increased early voting among Republican voters in some states. This suggests that the advantage of increased mail-in or early voting may no longer solely favor the Democratic party.
The Election Lab at the University of Florida noted that 25 states have provided party registration data on early voting participants. According to the data, approximately 38.8% of early voters are Democrats, 36.2% are Republicans, and 25% are non-affiliated or have no clear party preference.
However, Republican voters still seem to prefer casting their ballots early in person at polling stations. The data shows that about 39.9% of in-person early voters are Republicans, 31.4% are Democrats, and 28.6% are independents.
Democrats appear to lean more towards mail-in voting. In the aforementioned 25 states, over 19.25 million Democratic voters have applied for mail-in ballots compared to over 13.52 million Republican voters.
Additionally, there are 1.7 million more returned mail-in ballots from Democratic voters than Republican voters.
These 25 states that provide voter registration information include several crucial swing states in this year’s election, such as Arizona (AZ), Nevada (NV), North Carolina (NC), and Pennsylvania (PA).
However, these statistics from only a portion of the 25 states may not conclusively reflect the overall landscape of the US election at this stage.
With both camps neck and neck in support leading up to the election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday (October 29), Democratic candidate Harris and Republican candidate Trump hold support rates of 44% and 43% respectively, narrowing Harris’s lead to just 1 percentage point.
Across various polls, the candidates are tied in Wisconsin, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with Harris leading by 1 percentage point in Michigan, and Trump leading by approximately 1 percentage point in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
This suggests that voters, campaign teams from both parties, and people worldwide may have to wait several days to ascertain the winner of the 2024 election.
Take Arizona as an example with its 11 electoral votes, where 60% of voters reside in Maricopa County.
With a population of 4.5 million residents, election officials caution that it may take up to 13 days this year to tally all the votes in Maricopa.
The Maricopa County in the American West will be the ultimate swing county. If the margin between the two camps is too close, the results from Maricopa will be crucial in determining whether Harris or Trump will become the next US president.