After the military parade on September 3rd, the most important event for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October. Will there be a change in the highest power structure of the CCP at this meeting?
Currently, there are rumors circulating about the “nationalization of the military,” and the news of Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua taking over the highest power is becoming more and more frequent. As for the CCP leader Xi Jinping, it is said that he will either resign before the Fourth Plenary Session or be purged.
How will the future situation develop? Today, in our special report, we will analyze it for you step by step.
Following the conclusion of the September 3rd military parade, there have been new interpretations regarding the “elimination of negative influences within the CCP military.” Colonel Yao Cheng, former staff member of the CCP Navy Command, pointed out on September 8th that before, it was unclear who the “elimination of negative influences” was targeting, but now it is becoming increasingly clear that it is aimed at Xi Jinping himself. Furthermore, the “elimination” has already been completed, and political education in the military has essentially stalled, with military exercises in the latter half of the year also largely halted.
Yao Cheng mentioned that after the Fourth Plenary Session, military reforms should be carried out, such as convening an expanded meeting of the Military Commission, and then revising military textbooks, regulations, guidelines, and codes to use new versions. The first change will involve removing the words “Xi Jinping’s thought on strengthening the military” from the front of these books, which is what is meant by “elimination of negative influences.”
Regarding the issue of “eliminating negative influences” within the CCP military, it refers to a regulation issued by the Central Military Commission of the CCP in a document titled “Several Provisions on Vigorously Promoting Fine Traditions, Completely Cleaning Up Negative Influences, and Reshaping the Image and Prestige of Political Cadres.”
This regulation does not explicitly mention whose negative influences need to be eliminated, therefore, after its release, it has attracted high attention outside China.
Some believe that this is Xi Jinping continuing to remove the influence of Miao Hua. However, many critics have questioned: If this is Xi Jinping’s continuing purge of Miao Hua’s influence, then what “negative influence” does Miao Hua possess since he does not have any guiding ideology or theory?
The last time the CCP military announced the need to eradicate negative influences within the military was during the period when former Vice Chairmen of the CCP Central Military Commission, Xu Caihou, and Guo Boxiong were taken down ten years ago. Since then, the narrative of purging Xu Caihou’s and Guo Boxiong’s negative influences has persisted for many years.
However, now, after the CCP’s 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping has been conducting comprehensive purges within the military for over two years, and three out of seven members of the Military Commission have already been purged. If there is still a need for a comprehensive purge of negative influences within the military, then who is the target? Why is the document so vague on this issue?
Combining the speculation circulating overseas over the past year regarding Xi Jinping losing military support, some commentators believe that this is not Xi Jinping cleaning up the military but rather the military turning around to cleanse Xi Jinping’s negative influences.
Independent scholar Wu Zuolai pointed out on July 22nd that according to his military sources, the current operation is “coordinated by Liu Yuan,” which is actually the military turning against the “Xi family army.”
Wu Zuolai mentioned that last year, the military’s “Four Forums” and this current purge are in line. They are meant to ensure the safety of the Beidaihe Conference and the Fourth Plenary Session. Xi Jinping’s chance of making a comeback has now been reduced to zero.
On September 8th, Yao Cheng revealed in a program that initially people thought it was about cleaning up Miao Hua’s negative influences, but since Miao Hua did not write any books and his ideas did not rise to the level of guiding the military, there is no trace of Miao Hua in various guidelines and regulations. The so-called cleaning of negative influences is directly targeting Xi Jinping himself.
Yao Cheng also disclosed that another topic related to eliminating negative influences is the “nationalization of the military.” Previously, this topic was highly sensitive for the CCP; anyone daring to bring it up would face consequences from Xi Jinping. However, in some online communities in China, discussions on the “nationalization of the military” are no longer censored. Yao tested this topic personally and was not blocked.
Regarding the “nationalization of the military,” this idea has been present within the CCP military, with figures like Liu Yazhou and Liu Yuan being influential advocates. It is said that Liu Yazhou’s sentencing is related to his advocacy for the nationalization of the military. Liu Yuan’s political ideas actually originate from the early stages of the CCP’s New Democracy theory, which includes thoughts on political democratization and military nationalization.
The CCP’s New Democracy theory is essentially a combination of Sun Yat-sen’s democratic thoughts and Marxist-Leninist class struggle views, used to deceive people into believing that after New Democracy, a higher stage would be socialism.
If the Marxist-Leninist historical perspective is detached from the New Democracy theory, it can be restored to universal democratic values. This is a crucial observation point when examining the future political situation in China.
By adhering to the New Democracy theory, Liu Yuan’s advocacy for the nationalization of the military carries progressive significance in breaking away from the current CCP authoritarian system. Especially in the field of military nationalization, it could potentially bring about a breakthrough.
According to a disclosure by self-media blogger Laodeng, at a political bureau enlarged meeting held in May, Liu Yuan, the son of Liu Shaoqi, was invited by the military to attend and speak. Liu Yuan called for the nationalization of the military and the New Democracy theory during the meeting.
Liu Yuan emphasized that the nationalization of the military and the New Democracy theory are crucial to the CCP’s survival. Without the nationalization of the military, the party has no way out. Without updating faith, the country has no future. He believes that the root of all problems in China lies in “the military still being the party’s military, not the national defense army.” The loyalty of the party’s military is focused on individuals, becoming a tool for internal party struggles. If this fundamental issue is not resolved, political, economic, diplomatic, and social problems will remain unresolved.
Liu Yuan’s speech also referred to historical lessons, including the Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, and the 1989 Democracy Movement, where the military followed the dictates of a few individuals. Since Xi Jinping came to power, the military’s issues have become more severe, with the Military Commission Chairman’s system of responsibility becoming a personal command, even extending to wives and secretaries commanding the military. This has led to anxiety within the military ranks, resulting in low morale.
Furthermore, if this situation continues, the authoritarian rule will have no end, internal party democracy will be hopeless, economic resources will be misused, diplomatic risks will escalate, people’s trust will collapse, and there will be no peace for the party and the country.
Liu Yuan stated that the military should be loyal to the constitution, serve the overall interests of the people, break free from individual or factional control; this is the only way forward.
The pathway to military nationalization mentioned by Liu Yuan includes: 1. disengaging from the established system, abolishing the Military Commission, establishing the National Defense Commission with the President serving as the supreme commander; 2. organizational reform, abolishing party committees at all levels within the military, with senior officers responsible for operations and traditions, ensuring that political officers do not interfere with military operations; 3. military personnel swearing allegiance to the constitution and removing political doctrines demanding obedience to the party.
4. renaming the military to the National Defense Army.
Of course, we cannot verify the authenticity of Laodeng’s disclosure. However, the content aligns with basic logic. By nationalizing the military within the CCP system, separating the military from the party entirely and ensuring the military remains independent of the party, loyal to the constitution as a genuine national defense force. The military’s duty is to defend the country against external threats, not to suppress internal dissent.
In a program on September 8th, Yao Cheng mentioned that now that Xi Jinping has lost military support, media outlets such as the Military News will no longer openly oppose the nationalization of the military. This is a gradual process, allowing everyone to discuss the topic openly, with Liu Yuan leading the way.
Yao Cheng believes that the CCP cannot implement a standard military nationalization, something that can only be achieved under a democratic system. However, the CCP currently has no other choice and will implement a form of CCP-style military nationalization. The main reason is that Xi Jinping has made the military unbearable for everyone; the military no longer wants to be involved in politics and hopes to distance itself, thus moving closer to Western practices to some extent. Although it will not be a standard military nationalization, the military requires these reforms.
Here, Yao Cheng refers to the so-called standard military nationalization under constitutional democracy, which is the system of military nationalization implemented by Western countries, Japan, South Korea, and the Republic of China (Taiwan).
From the current situation, if Xi Jinping truly loses military power, and individuals like Liu Yuan and Zhang Youxia indeed take control of the highest power, then this CCP-style military nationalization, represented by CCP military personnel like Zhang Youxia, it could be the only way for CCP soldiers to avoid political purges, protecting their legitimate rights under the constitution.
If this step is truly accomplished, the military will no longer protect the party’s interests but focus on defending the country and the safety of the military itself, posing a significant challenge to the foundation of the CCP regime. Regardless of the outcome, this upheaval will profoundly affect China’s future trajectory.
Military nationalization is a crucial step towards democratization in future China, impacting not just the fate of CCP military personnel but also the direction of Chinese politics. The Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP scheduled for October will be a window to observe these developments.
Yao Cheng mentioned that before the September 3rd military parade, there was a rumor circulating indicating that a group of generals had jointly written a letter to Zhang Youxia, refusing Xi Jinping’s review. As confirmed through the parade, the total commander was only a major general, and none of the senior generals stood up in support of Xi Jinping. Behind the main commander of the parade were two colonels and two lieutenant colonels, with no senior generals present. Therefore, Xi Jinping undoubtedly did not receive military support.
In terms of Xi Jinping’s future, Yao Cheng predicts that one possibility is that Xi Jinping will write a resignation letter before the Fourth Plenary Session because he does not want to attend the meeting. If he does participate, it would be humiliating for him.
Commentator Jiang Feng revealed in his self-media program that following the September 3rd military parade, the direct lineage 82nd Group Army under Zhang Youxia’s command refused to return to its station and continued to stay in Beijing under the pretext of safeguarding the Central Committee of the Party. According to regulations, a field army without joint signatures from the Chairman and both Vice Chairmen of the Military Commission cannot be stationed in the capital. However, this iron rule has been broken, and the definition of the Central Committee is clear, establishing a modern-day scenario of coercing subordinate officials to serve the supreme ruler.
By controlling the political situation through the military, Zhang Youxia conducted a complete reversal of the party’s command over firearms. Jiang Feng stated that two factions have emerged within the CCP; one led by Xi Jinping trying to overturn an unfavorable situation by launching a war, and the other composed of technical bureaucrats and elders striving for stability and maintaining the existing system, advocating conciliation externally and escalating ventures as a way to avoid war. This internal conflict is not a public showdown, but a state of uneasy coexistence. Zhang Youxia’s controlled military opted for a delicate neutral stance, neither turning against nor protecting Xi Jinping, merely observing the situation with weapons in hand. By controlling the capital and the pace of this upheaval, they ensured that no one dared to act rashly, forcing both sides back to the negotiation table.
Jiang Feng said that the most democratic power reshuffling in the history of the CCP’s governance has quietly commenced behind closed doors. Finally, through an internal vote in secrecy, a consensus was reached between the elder faction and the majority of technical bureaucrats, leading to Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua forming a caretaker center to handle the transition task and take a single focal point: stabilizing the situation, ending adventurism, and cleaning up the mess.
Xi Jinping’s ultimate fate is thus determined; either he will voluntarily resign before the Fourth Plenary Session to save face, or various reasons within the party can lead to his purge.
As the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the power struggles within the CCP are intensifying. Discussions about the nationalization of the military have quietly resurfaced, and the movements of figures like Zhang Youxia, Liu Yuan, and rumors about Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua potentially taking over power have made the political landscape even more convoluted.
The nationalization of the military is not just about the military’s future but could be a crucial step in China’s political transition. If the military truly breaks away from the party’s control, loyal to the constitution and becoming a national defense force, it could pose an unprecedented challenge to the foundation of the CCP regime. Whatever the outcome, this upheaval will significantly impact China’s future trajectory.
Please continue to follow “Epoch Focus,” where we will bring you the latest analysis and interpretations.
—
Translated and rewritten by [Your Name], news reporter specializing in translation and rewriting.