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The rapid development of long-range attack drones in the turmoil of Ukraine has always been a mystery. Today, Ukraine is not only a major producer of various reconnaissance and attack drones, but it can even target objects up to 1000 kilometers away. While these drones cannot replace the long-range weapons provided by the West, they are having an undeniable impact.
Mentioning the development of Ukrainian drones, the mysterious “Phoenix Ghost” drone cannot be ignored. Before the White House announced the delivery of 121 “Phoenix Ghost” drones to Ukraine in March 2022, this attack drone seemed unheard of. In June of the same year, 580 more were delivered, followed by 1100 in November. The Pentagon mentioned the “Phoenix Ghost” and the Spring Knife drone system in a security assistance report in July 2023 but did not provide specific numbers. That year, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby vaguely stated that the Phoenix Ghost offers similar functions to the Spring Knife series drones but not identical. The Spring Knife 600 and the smaller Spring Knife 300 were early variants of the Kamikaze drones provided to Ukraine, also known as loitering ammunition. Since then, official news about the “Phoenix Ghost” has been scarce.
Oleksii Arestovysch, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, once stated in an interview that the “Phoenix Ghost” can be carried by one person, effectively combating medium-sized armor, with a flight time of up to six hours and a 60% hit rate on vehicles. However, these claims have not been confirmed by US officials or supported by related image evidence.
Later, some answers were found on the internet. Arny from Aevex Aerospace in California mentioned his contact with hardware belonging to the “Phoenix Ghost” drone. He believes that the systems regularly provided to the Ukrainian army by Aevex Aerospace possess impressive new features. They consist of multiple systems with varying ranges. Now, these items resembling the “Phoenix Ghost” are being used to attack targets within Russia.
Aevex Aerospace is a company specializing in drone system design that has developed drones with different functions based on the “Phoenix Ghost.” They introduced an loitering ammunition called Atlas at this year’s Army Aviation Mission Solutions Summit. It appears as a more advanced version of the Russian Iskander missile, used to target frontline objectives. There is also a larger brother named Dominator, resembling a downsized version of the Iranian Shahed drone, used for hitting distant targets. They are considered members of the “Phoenix Ghost” family, but their actual combat effectiveness surpasses that of competitors.
Atlas features foldable wings driven by electric motors, with a length of 3 feet and a wingspan of 5.5 feet. It has a total weight of 21 pounds, including an 8-pound warhead that can be either a fragmentation or an anti-armor projectile. It can loiter for approximately two hours, reach speeds of about 57 miles per hour, and cover a range exceeding 75 miles. With such performance, it is capable of destroying radar stations, anti-aircraft gun emplacements, rockets, and other high-value targets far from the frontline.
The larger Dominator adopts a twin-boom design, measuring 5 feet in length with a wingspan of 16 feet. Its take-off weight is 100 pounds, with an effective payload of 37 pounds. Like most medium drones, it is equipped with a gas engine and propeller. It can fly at speeds exceeding 60 miles per hour for 5 hours, covering distances over 400 miles, making it suitable for targeting strategic objectives at a distance. Dominator is also described as a multi-role drone, capable of one-way attacks and recyclable for various tasks including intelligence gathering, communication relaying, electronic warfare, and precise targeting.
Aevex’s website indicates that over 4,000 drones have been delivered to users through US government contracts. This means that around 4,000 drones have been provided to Ukraine in approximately 30 months since the war began, averaging over 100 drones per month. In June of this year, Aevex CEO Brian Raduenz stated that the company was delivering over 300 drones to Ukraine per month. In July, Aevex announced an expansion of its Florida plant to produce approximately 450 aircraft per month. This production capability demonstrates customer satisfaction with the performance of the “Phoenix Ghost.” Based on information provided by Aevex, the average cost per drone seems to be less than $130,000, which is not high by US standards.
Russia produces less than 500 “Shahed” drones on average per month. Signs indicate that Ukraine is also producing more long-range attack drones. However, Aevex’s expansion rate is much faster than the combined production of the two.
Raduenz expressed that the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield changes rapidly, necessitating continuous design modifications to their products. Electronic warfare largely dictates the battlefield dynamics; both Atlas and Dominator utilize visual image navigation, allowing them to autonomously identify and track terrain features, achieving precise target location without relying on GPS. This navigation type, employing a resilient wireless network, enables drones to weaken or avoid interference measures when attacking stationary targets.
This implies that Aevex’s loitering ammunition may possess terminal autonomous identification and guidance capabilities, enabling autonomous seeking through algorithm and sensor fusion. Equipped with their own processors, they contain various target feature data, comparing imagery captured by cameras with internal target data. If the imagery aligns with the internal target data, the system can confirm and lock onto the target, completing the entire process internally without requiring long-distance signal transmission, thus remaining unaffected by electronic interference. This capability allows them to independently lock onto and engage targets without external intervention. Once guided to a designated location, the drone begins its search for specific targets such as radar stations or missile launch sites, establishing an attack trajectory.
They may even have the ability to conduct autonomous attacks, though this is speculative. Autonomous operational capability does not necessarily mean autonomous attacks, as there is a significant moral divide where operators must authorize drones to autonomously engage confirmed specific targets. In principle, firing must be carried out with human consent.
Russia combines reconnaissance drones with “Iskander” and other attack drones to form a lethal chain. The “Phoenix Ghost” likely operates as a hunt-kill combination of long-endurance reconnaissance drones and multiple attack drones. This setup may also involve other drones for communication relaying and electronic support.
Drones with longer ranges may provide more opportunities to find matching targets. Ukraine has already utilized various drones for long-range attacks. Defense analyst HI Sutton from the CovertShores website has recorded at least 24 different types of long-range attack drones. One drone known as Mystery 8 is believed to be an overseas version of the “Phoenix Ghost” family. It resembles Dominator, featuring exceptional body shape, fairings, sensors, and payload layout.
Considering that the US is unlikely to permit Ukraine to use long-range weapons like Mystery 8 to target objects within Russia, Mystery 8 appears more likely to be a closely related replica of the “Phoenix Ghost,” created by Ukraine to circumvent US restrictions on the use of long-range weapons.
The “Phoenix Ghost” could bring significant tactical changes. Recently, Russian artillery losses have increased dramatically. If one understands how many losses were caused by the “Phoenix Ghost,” the extent of its impact becomes clear. It is unknown how many Mystery 8 or Dominator drones have participated in long-range attacks, as Ukraine rarely discloses the weapons list used for remote strikes. However, the range of these drones is nearly twice that of the highly sought-after Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile.
Aevex’s production capacity is quite formidable. The long-range attack drones it manufactures could overwhelm Russia’s air defense systems, creating destruction on Russian airbases, various logistics and energy facilities used for attacking Ukraine, or other vital resources to compel Russia to end the invasion sooner. However, achieving these objectives also depends on whether the US is willing to provide and agree on using these long-range weapons in areas where they can produce the maximum tactical effect.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian version of the “Phoenix Ghost” quietly rising within Ukraine could soon become a remarkable weapon influencing the course of this war.