Mozambique held its presidential election on October 9th, with many analysts predicting that the current ruling party is likely to win, continuing its control over this southern African country for nearly half a century.
Among the four candidates, 47-year-old lawyer Daniel Chapo is the candidate for the ruling party, the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo), and a new face for the long-standing party. Analysts believe he is the most likely person to succeed President Filipe Nyusi, who will step down after two terms in office.
Chapo’s opponents include independent candidate Venancio Mondlane, former rebel commander Ossufo Momade, and a leader of a small opposition party.
Analysts suggest that Chapo and Frelimo’s dominant position face their biggest challenge from the 50-year-old political newcomer Mondlane, who focuses his campaign on the disillusioned young Mozambicans struggling with poverty and unemployment.
Mondlane aligns with the opposition coalition but they were barred from participating in the election. He now has the support of a new party called “Podemos.”
Chapo, a former broadcaster and television host turned law professor, previously served as governor of the flagship tourist region of Inhambane province in Mozambique. He unexpectedly won the presidential candidate position in a party internal vote in May.
If Chapo wins, he will become Mozambique’s first leader born after independence.
Vote counting will commence immediately after the close of polling on election day. Preliminary results for some regions are expected to be announced on Thursday, with the complete results required to be submitted to the Constitutional Commission for verification and official declaration within 15 days of the end of voting. Approximately 17 million people registered to vote.
The credibility of the election will be under scrutiny, as the left-wing Frelimo has been accused of electoral manipulation in previous votes, including last year’s local elections, involving ballot stuffing and result forgery. The party has consistently denied allegations of election rigging.
Regional and international election observation teams are monitoring the situation in Mozambique, including a team from the European Union.
Key issues concerning voters include poverty, youth unemployment, and government corruption. This year, over a million Mozambicans have been affected by hunger due to a drought in the southern African region.
Furthermore, in 2016, government officials and bank executives illicitly guaranteed over $2 billion in loans from overseas banks in the name of the government, then misappropriated these loans, plunging the country’s economy into crisis, which is still in recovery.
This country of around 33 million people has also been impacted by ongoing Islamic insurgency in the north.
Ending the insurgency and bringing stability to the affected regions are promises of the two main presidential candidates. The province has seen 1.3 million people displaced due to the insurgency, with over half still in displacement.
Mozambique gained independence from Portugal in 1975 and has been under the rule of Frelimo ever since, following a bloody 15-year civil war with the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) until 1992. The country held its first elections in 1994.
Renamo’s leader Ossufo Momade is also running in this election. He was a military commander during the civil war.
The peace relationship between Frelimo and Renamo has been fragile, with more conflicts erupting in 2013. Momade and outgoing leader Nyusi signed another peace agreement in 2019.
However, tensions persist, especially between these two former warring parties.