The price of Feitian Maotai liquor has been steadily declining recently, breaking through the breakeven line of 2500 yuan per bottle in the so-called “Lu Maotai” and “Maotai fans” groups, causing concerns and panic among liquor merchants, scalpers, and those who profit from the price difference.
On June 14th, the reference price of Maotai batch dropped from 2420 to 2230 yuan. The topic of “No one buys Maotai at 2300 yuan” even trended on Weibo.
In April this year, the reference batch price of Feitian Maotai fell below 2600 yuan, and just before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, it dropped below 2500 yuan. During the festival, Maotai not only did not pick up in demand but continued its downward trend from before the holiday, with prices continuing to decline post-festival.
According to reports from mainland media Caifeng.com, the Dragon Boat Festival is traditionally a “small peak season” for liquor, but Maotai’s wholesale price has fallen instead of rising, causing concerns in the market.
After the Dragon Boat Festival, Maotai’s price dropped to around 2400 yuan. The morning prices today show a cliff-like drop in Feitian Maotai, with the batch reference price on June 14th dropping from 2420 to 2230 yuan compared to the previous day.
During e-commerce promotions, the price of Feitian Maotai has also been sliding.
On the morning of June 13th, the price of Feitian Maotai dropped to 2340 yuan with Pinduoduo’s billion-yuan subsidy; the twin pack even dropped to 4590 yuan, with each bottle at 2295 yuan. On Taobao’s billion-yuan subsidy channel, Feitian’s price has also fallen to 2346 yuan, the twin pack at 4577 yuan, each bottle at 2288.5 yuan, and gifts are also randomly included.
In the afternoon of June 13th, also during Pinduoduo’s billion-yuan subsidy, the price of Feitian Maotai dropped to 2280 yuan. On the same platform, within one day, from morning to afternoon, the price of a bottle of Feitian Maotai dropped by 60 yuan.
On June 14th in the morning, under the billion-yuan subsidies of Taobao and Pinduoduo, Feitian Maotai bottles were priced at 2277 yuan each, with the twin pack at 4527 yuan. The price decreased compared to the previous day.
In the liquor merchant industry, 2500 yuan is seen as a safety line, balancing costs and profits. Unlike official distributors who are associated with the profit from factory prices, merchants operate in what can be likened to a “second-hand market.” Unlike other commodities in the second-hand market, Maotai’s value is even higher. These merchants make profits from reselling at a price difference, with their breakeven line not directly related to Maotai’s factory price but connected to market prices and the situation in the “second-hand market” where scalpers operate.
Merchant Huang Yu (pseudonym) revealed to mainland media “Shijie” that after the Dragon Boat Festival, many merchants started clearing inventory, many of whom stocked up before the holiday. With slow sales during the festival, once they sensed trouble, they had to sell at a loss and exit the market.
With the continuous decline in Maotai liquor prices, liquor merchants, scalpers, and those profiting from the price differences have started to worry. In groups discussing liquor, the topic of prices is a daily conversation. “I have over 500 bottles of Feitian, the cost is around 2500, and now I’m anxious.”
Huang Yu expressed, “Currently, no one has confidence, the prices are unstable. If the price falls below 2200, Maotai’s pricing system will need to be reshaped, involving too many interests. If the price stabilizes around 2200, scalpers will suffer heavy losses.”
Currently, the downward trend in Maotai’s market shows no sign of stopping. A liquor merchant told “Shijie,” “Since entering the business in 2019, Maotai has almost hit its lowest price, excluding a special period in the first half of 2020.”
Some practitioners suggest that the loss of confidence in the market is widespread: “Baijiu is seen as an economic lubricant, also reflecting economic development.”
One liquor merchant mentioned, “The problem is, no one knows when this continuous downward trend will stop.”
Through interviews with tobacco and liquor shop owners, second-hand recyclers, seasoned “Maotai fans,” and ordinary consumers who passively stocked up due to special circumstances, Nan Du Bay Finance and Social Communication noted a spreading sense of panic, from the second-hand recycling market to the capital market.
Not only has the price of Maotai liquor been declining, but Maotai’s stock price has also been nearly paralleling this downward trend.
On May 6, Guizhou Maotai’s total market value surpassed China Mobile once again to become the “stock king” in the A-share market. As of the May 6 closing, Guizhou Maotai’s total market value was 2.21 trillion yuan; China Mobile’s total market value was 2.16 trillion. By the May 7 closing, Guizhou Maotai also reached a phase high in 2024, with a total market value exceeding 2.22 trillion yuan.
However, by the June 13 closing, Guizhou Maotai’s total market value had dropped below 2 trillion to 1.95 trillion, lower than China Mobile’s total market value.
In over a month from the May 7 closing to the June 13 closing, within 26 trading days, Guizhou Maotai’s liquor and stock prices have continued to decline, with a stock price drop of over 11%, evaporating a market value of 270 billion yuan, nearly 1.3 trillion yuan less compared to the highest 3.26 trillion yuan in the past five years.
In China, Maotai liquor was once seen as a synonym for corruption in the Chinese Communist Party officials, becoming the “specially supplied liquor” in various military regions, systems, and institutions as gifts or bribes.
A Tencent user expressed, “Who would spend money to buy a bottle of Maotai for themselves to drink?”
An online user lamented, “The expenses for most rural elderly people are not even enough to buy a bottle for a whole year.”