Recently, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai has continued to decline. On June 24, the third-party platform “Today Wine Price” disclosed that the reference price for wholesale sales of Feitian Maotai individual bottles in 2024 has dropped from 2140 yuan (RMB) the previous day to 2080 yuan, falling below 2100 yuan. By the midday close on June 24, the stock price of Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH) was reported at 1470.04 yuan per share, a decrease of 0.07%, with an initial drop exceeding 3%.
In recent days, there has been online speculation that Maotai will cancel the instructions for unpacking and abolishing the sales of 12 bottles per case of Feitian Maotai. According to reports by The Paper, on June 24, several distributors confirmed the above information, stating that they had received the notice in the past two days.
A Maotai distributor in Shanghai confirmed on June 24 that they had received a message on the 23rd to stop shipping 12-bottle cases, stating, “In the future, it may not be possible to buy 12-bottle cases of Feitian Maotai, but distributors currently have inventory to sell.”
Distributors also mentioned that in the future, individual bottles of Feitian Maotai will not be provided, and instead, shipments will consist of small cases with 6 bottles each.
Another Maotai distributor in Shanghai indicated on the 24th that the selling price of Feitian Maotai has been fluctuating near the market price recently. Although the wholesale price displayed by third-party platforms is very low, end consumers cannot purchase the wine at such low prices. When the price drops significantly, distributors may sometimes withhold shipments to ensure profitability. Middlemen who stockpile Maotai are often more impacted by the decrease in prices, with some facing financial chain problems.
Since reaching a high point of 2700 yuan per bottle at the beginning of the year, the price of Feitian Maotai has been fluctuating, starting to decline in April and accelerating the decline in the past month. This marks the longest continuous decline in Feitian Maotai prices over the past 3 years.
In June, the market value of Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH) evaporated by over a hundred billion yuan. As of the closing on June 21, the stock price of Guizhou Maotai fell below 1500 yuan per share, hitting the lowest point since 2023.
The decline in Maotai prices has triggered a “butterfly effect” in the market – auction failure rates are rising, collectors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, pawn amounts are decreasing, and scalpers are halting purchases.
During the Guizhou Maotai Wine special session at the Poly Spring Auction on June 13, out of 132 lots, only 11 were sold, resulting in an auction failure rate of 91.67%, with a total turnover of 214,600 yuan. The previous instance was at the Poly Autumn Auction in 2023, where the auction failure rate was around 69%; the same for the Poly Spring Auction in 2023.
Alongside the rising auction failure rates, the prices of aged wines are also declining. Last year, a set of 6 bottles of 1990s Guizhou Maotai wines with iron caps was auctioned for 224,300 yuan at the Poly Autumn Auction, while the same product at the Spring Auction this year had an estimated price of 162,000 to 210,000 yuan but still went unsold.
Within the Maotai aged wine market, collectors are also in a state of observation. Zeng Yu, Vice Chairman and Executive Secretary-General of the Collection and Market Professional Committee of the Chinese Alcoholic Drinks Circulation Association and founder of ZengTang, mentioned that the current downward trend in the pricing of new Maotai wines is affecting the prices of aged wines as well. Ten years ago, the selling price of aged Feitian Maotai was only 500 yuan higher than this year’s new wine. At present, collecting Maotai products is not considered a good investment.
The pawn amounts offered for the 2024 53-degree Feitian Maotai by several pawnshops in Beijing have reached the market guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle.
As the only product in the liquor industry with a selling price higher than the market guidance price, the price of Feitian Maotai is an important benchmark for observing the liquor industry, often seen as the basis for liquor manufacturers’ pricing strategies.
According to Economic Observer reports, an investor in Guizhou Maotai expressed concerns that the logic behind the price increase for high-end liquors has been shaken, and the slowdown in the growth rate of listed companies’ performance may just be a matter of time.
The decline in Feitian Maotai prices has also led to a decrease in the selling prices of other liquor brands. The price of Wuliangye, the eighth generation classic, has dropped from 940 yuan per bottle three months ago to 860 yuan per bottle, while products from Guojiao 1573, Guotai, and Xijiu, among other brands, have also seen price reductions.
The head of a liquor packaging company in Zunyi City revealed that as liquor prices decline, the profit from developing new wines has decreased, leading to a 30% reduction in their packaging factory’s order volume this year.