On September 17, 2025, Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi stated on Tuesday, September 16th, that the fate of the U.S. economy in avoiding a recession largely depends on the consumption activities of the high-income groups. If affluent households continue to support the economy through spending, it could serve as a “lifeline” to avoid a recession. However, if they reduce their spending, the economy could face a greater risk of recession.
Zandi pointed out on X platform that the expenditure of these households is crucial for economic growth. Updated charts from Moody’s show that currently the “U.S. economy is primarily driven by the affluent class.” If the wealthiest group continues to spend at their current levels, the economy could potentially avoid a recession.
Zandi found that in the second quarter of this year, the top 10% of U.S. income earners accounted for nearly half of total consumer spending, reaching 49.2%, higher than the first quarter’s 48.5%, marking a new high since 1989.
“The economic outlook is closely tied to the wealth and consumption of the affluent class. If they become more cautious in their spending for any reason, the economy will fall into a recession.”
Zandi pointed out that with recent near-historic highs in the U.S. stock market and persistent high home prices, the net assets of the wealthy have increased, prompting them to continue spending. However, he warned that a stock market decline could trigger a slowdown in affluent spending.
Zandi wrote, “For the bottom 80% of earners, households with incomes below about $175,000, their consumption has barely kept pace with inflation since the pandemic, and their actual purchasing power has not increased. The situation is much better for households in the top 20% of income earners. The top 3.3% of households perform even more significantly better.”
Zandi’s perspective reflects the dilemma the U.S. economy currently faces: while consumer spending remains a key driver of economic growth, a decrease in consumer confidence among high-income groups could potentially strain the overall economy.
Zandi stated that the latest consumption data clearly reveal why Americans are dissatisfied with the economy – most people are reducing their consumption. “From a data perspective, it is not surprising that the majority of Americans feel the economy is not in their favor.”
On Sunday, September 15th, Zandi had issued a warning that the U.S. economy is on the “brink of recession,” with the probability of entering a recession in the next year rising to 48%, a worrisome level. He stated, “While the probability of recession has not reached 50%, historically there has never been such a high probability of recession, nor has it actually triggered an economic downturn.”
This analysis has sparked widespread attention on the future direction of the U.S. economy, especially against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty. Experts urge policymakers to closely monitor the consumption trends of high-income households in order to adjust policies promptly to address potential risks.
(This article references reports from The Hill and Bloomberg.)