Last week, Ukraine launched a small-scale offensive in the direction of Kurssk. Let’s take a look at the map. Ukraine’s attack this time was on the village of Fanaseyevka in the northeast direction of Sujia. Ukraine advanced 5 to 7 kilometers beyond the contact line and captured two villages along the road, posing a threat to the Russian flank.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated last week that the Russian military had defeated Ukraine’s armed forces’ counterattack in that direction. Ukraine deployed up to two mechanized battalions of infantry fighting vehicles and armored vehicles, with tank and mine-clearing vehicle support.
TASS, a Russian news agency, released a video showing Ukraine’s armored convoy advancing along the road, while Russian drones continuously conducted reconnaissance and guided long-range artillery shelling, indicating intense frontline combat.
In another video, a Ukrainian M1150 mine-clearing vehicle appeared on the snowy plains of Kurssk. The M1150 is a mine-clearing vehicle developed based on the chassis of the M1 Abrams main battle tank. Drones continuously attacked this mine-clearing vehicle. In subsequent videos, Ukrainian armored vehicles can be seen driving one by one on the snowy plains, each tank and armored vehicle equipped with iron cages to prevent Russian drone attacks.
In another video, a German-made Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicle appeared. This vehicle, developed by West Germany in the 1960s based on the Leopard 1 tank chassis, is primarily tasked with towing damaged tanks for repair on the battlefield.
In the final video segment, a tank’s power unit was damaged, halting on the road, with Russian forces continuing to launch attacks on it using suicide drones.
In this offensive, Ukraine deployed a significant amount of NATO equipment, demonstrating the seriousness of Ukraine’s command in planning this attack. There are several possible reasons for Ukraine’s launch of this small-scale offensive.
Firstly, with some Russian forces withdrawing from the battlefield, there may be weak defensive points in the Russian front lines. Secondly, this may be a tactical diversion strategy by the Ukrainian military to attract forces from other directions. In recent days, Ukraine’s offensives have gradually stalled, and Ukraine does not have enough troops to launch a large-scale counterattack.
Since Ukraine launched the Kurssk offensive six months ago, at its peak, it occupied over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. The map displays the changes in the Kurssk situation over the past six months. The deep blue areas are the territories occupied by Ukraine, while the light blue areas are the territories Ukraine had previously occupied but were recaptured by Russia. Currently, Ukraine mainly controls areas near the small town of Sujia, encompassing approximately 500 square kilometers of land.
For Ukraine, there is another piece of good news – the Mirage 2000 fighter jets from France have arrived in Ukraine. The French military primarily operates two Mirage variants – the Mirage 2000 C, which was phased out around 2022, and the Mirage 2000-5, with around 30 jets currently in service in France.
The Mirage 2000-5 boasts advanced features compared to the Mirage 2000 C, including a new RDY Doppler radar system with a detection range of up to 150 kilometers. Additionally, it has upgraded sensor technology and modernized cockpit displays. The Mirage 2000-5 can carry out ground attacks with missile launch capabilities and can even be equipped with nuclear warheads.
However, it is uncertain whether Ukraine received the older Mirage 2000 C or the updated Mirage 2000-5. According to reports from US Defense News, France plans to retire all Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets by 2029 and all Mirage 2000 D fighter jets by 2035. Therefore, the Mirage 2000 received by Ukraine is likely an earlier model, such as the C variant.
The introduction of Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine could bring significant changes. The Mirage 2000 has a robust arsenal, including the Storm Shadow cruise missile. The Storm Shadow missile, present in Ukraine for over a year, has performed well, especially in severe Russian electronic interference conditions. The versatile targeting modes of the Storm Shadow missile make it less susceptible to Russian electronic interference, making it a favorite within the Ukrainian Air Force.
Currently, the only aircraft in the Ukrainian Air Force capable of firing Storm Shadow missiles is the modified Su-24 attack aircraft. However, with the Mirage 2000’s arrival, it can take on the Su-24’s ground strike missions as their numbers diminish during the war.
Furthermore, the Mirage 2000 can launch the anti-ship Exocet missile, notable for sinking the British HMS Sheffield destroyer during the Falklands War. While Ukraine may not require the Mirage 2000 for anti-ship missions due to the absence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukrainian waters, the aircraft’s anti-ship capabilities remain valuable.
Additionally, the Mirage 2000 can deploy the AS37 anti-radiation missile jointly developed by the UK and France, with a range of 60 kilometers. In past conflicts, this missile was successfully employed in Libya and Chad to destroy enemy radar systems.
In terms of air-to-air combat, the Mirage 2000 can carry Magic short-range and MICA medium-range air-to-air missiles. The MICA missile has a range of 60 to 80 kilometers, utilizing infrared guidance or active radar guidance, serving as the primary air-to-air missile for the French Air Force. France’s latest development is the MICA NG missile with a rumored range of up to 160 kilometers, equivalent to the US AIM-120D. If Ukraine obtains the latest MICA missiles alongside the Mirage 2000 aircraft, their air-to-air combat capabilities will significantly improve.
Regardless of the F-16 fighter jets from the US or the Mirage 2000 from France, augmenting Ukraine’s air force is crucial. However, expecting these aircraft to instantly alter the battlefield situation is unrealistic.