Military hotspot: Ukrainian military operation in Kursk changes the narrative of the war

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In the southern Kursk region of Russia, another bridge has been destroyed by the Ukrainian army. On September 8th, a video released by the Ukrainian 116th Mechanized Brigade surveillance and target capture “Nightmares Battalion” showed Ukrainian forces using HIMARS or M270 rocket systems to attack a bridge near the village of Kareriz in the Kursk region. Kareriz village is located on the banks of the Seme River, about 7 kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian border.

The Ukrainian forces targeted the bridge on the Seme River to cut off logistical supplies for the Russian forces caught between the northwest region and the southern Ukrainian border, and to create opportunities to assist Ukrainian forces in advancing eastward.

The Ukrainian army utilized airstrikes and drones to destroy a Russian reinforcement convoy trying to reach the area. By early September, about 10-12 kilometers from the Glushkovo district center, Ukrainian forces theoretically encircled 2000 to 3000 Russian troops. However, Ukrainian forces did not intentionally take action to pursue this goal.

The day before, Ukrainian forces destroyed two floating bridges in the Kursk region to prevent Russian forces from crossing the transit point over the Seme River in Kursk. On September 8th, the Ukrainian forces released a video shot by drones showing the precise destruction of the two floating bridges in the Kursk region.

A Ukrainian military blogger with the alias Alex reported this news on his Telegram channel. He said, “The good news from the Kursk direction is not the only one. Overall, the Russians seem to have discovered that everything is not as easy and wonderful as they thought, as they are working hard to dig in and call for more guided bombs.”

As the Ukrainian war unfolds, the “red line” of Russia threatening to use nuclear weapons seems to become increasingly blurred. CIA Director William Burns warned the West not to be concerned about Russia’s nuclear threat. For a long time, the US think tank War Studies Institute has viewed Russia’s nuclear threats as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to encourage Western self-deterrence and influence Western military assistance to Ukraine.

On September 7th, CIA Director Burns and MI6 Director Richard Moore made a rare joint public appearance. Burns stated during the meeting that Russian President Putin will continue to periodically issue threats of direct confrontation with the West, but these threats should not intimidate the West. Burns said that he had communicated with Sergey Naryshkin, the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), about Russia’s consideration of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the fall of 2022. The CIA’s assessment of the matter indicates that even during the Ukrainian army’s successful counteroffensive operations in Kherson and Kharkiv, Russia’s actions regarding nuclear confrontation were only verbally intensified. This rhetoric may be more of a routine disinformation campaign to prevent Western countries from providing Ukraine with security assistance, rather than a sign of Russia preparing to use nuclear weapons.

At a critical moment when the West is discussing further military assistance to Ukraine, the Kremlin has repeatedly unabashedly released threats of nuclear confrontation with the West, attempting to instill fear in Western decision-makers. The War Studies Institute believes that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere.

During the meeting, Moore stated that the invasion of the Russian Kursk region by Ukraine last month was a bold move that changed people’s perception of the full-scale invasion war initiated by Russian President Putin.

Regarding the invasion of Kyiv into Kursk, Moore said, “The Ukrainians are trying to change the rules of the game, which is typical boldness.” He said, “I think they have, to some extent, changed the narrative surrounding the war with Russia.”

Moore stated that during Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this Russian leader has been steadily advancing from one village to another with a mindset of “I will hold on to what I have and show no interest in negotiation.” It was only after Ukrainian forces entered and occupied Kursk that ordinary Russians truly grasped the reality of the war.

The Kyiv invasion took place as Russian forces made progress in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, leading to speculation that its purpose was to seize the strategic logistics hub of Pokrovsk. However, Burns described the Kursk offensive as a “major tactical achievement” that boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed Russian vulnerabilities.

Burns compared it to the June 2023 march in Moscow led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, where Prigozhin questioned the reasons for the war and accused the Russian military leadership of incompetence and corruption.

Burns described Putin’s rhetoric as “extremely arrogant and self-satisfied.” Putin believes that once Ukraine is defeated, all of its Western supporters will crumble, it’s just a matter of time. However, the impact of the Kursk offensive negated this narrative, raising questions among the Russian elite about the purpose of it all.

Russian military blogs continue to provide insights into how the Kremlin screens military blogs to control the Russian information space. On September 7th, the prominent Russian military blog author Alexander Sladkov stated that former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his team at the Russian Ministry of Defense punished military bloggers, including Sladkov, for their overly candid and harsh comments on Russia’s military failures and the resulting disasters.

Sladkov said that a few months ago, during Shoigu’s tenure at the Russian Ministry of Defense, the main military prosecutor’s office brought criminal charges against him for defaming the Russian military. Sladkov noted that officials at the Russian Ministry of Defense under Shoigu’s leadership tried to hypocritically instruct bloggers how to “act ethically.” However, many officials from the Ministry of Defense have been arrested by Russian authorities in recent months for bribery and fraud.

He also stated that with the appointment of the current Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, military bloggers seemed to breathe a sigh of relief. He hinted that the Kremlin intervened and enabled him and other Russian military bloggers to avoid criminal prosecution. This could be part of the Kremlin’s war efforts to recruit compliant military bloggers who often criticized the Russian government’s actions to ensure they will not be held accountable in the future.

In fact, since 2022, the Kremlin has been making efforts to reward and coax moderate Russian military bloggers, making them display loyalty. The War Studies Institute assessed in 2022 and 2023 that the Kremlin is trying to recruit Sladkov and Poddubny, who were critical of the Russian army’s failures in Ukraine before being courted.

However, the Kremlin has not successfully recruited or suppressed all Russian military bloggers. There are still voices among military bloggers openly criticizing the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense. Three video clips released on September 8th were deleted because they asserted that there are traitors within the Kremlin, and the Russian authorities have expelled and detained those individuals.

Sladkov’s account of the Russian government’s intervention in his case suggests that Putin may be more inclined to adopt a policy of co-optation and bribery, using the guise of maintaining freedom of speech to prevent dissenting voices from spreading rapidly. The War Studies Institute believes that the Kremlin may continue to strive to establish full control over the Russian information space in the future.

Although the Ukrainian war has not seen a breakthrough, many are optimistic about ending the war soon. Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Director Kyrylo Budanov believes it may be within reach.

In an interview, Budanov likened the war to a football match, stating, “The current score is 1:1, the game is in the 70th minute, and there hasn’t been a breakthrough yet. Thank God, there hasn’t been a reversal yet, but it’s getting close.” Budanov mentioned that resources are not unlimited for both sides, and the situation cannot persist indefinitely. He indicated that Ukrainian drones can strike Russian military targets up to 1,800 kilometers away, implying that the infrastructure supporting Russia’s war effort will suffer losses.

Written by: Charlotte Shan (Reporter for Epoch Times, with over a decade of military experience, primarily involved in teaching and technical management in the military)

Produced by: Current Military Production Team

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