A Russian military blog’s conflicting reports from the Ukrainian battlefield not only reflect the chaos in the Russian information space but also indicate progress by the Ukrainian military, making Moscow’s control over the information space seem less effective. With Telegram channels facing issues, Russian military blogs will lose a platform for free communication.
Reports suggest that on August 25, the Ukrainian military launched an offensive in Kursk, with Russian forces losing their position in Komarovka southwest of Korenevo. Some Russian military blogs immediately claimed that Russian forces had retaken Ol’govka and Kremianoye to the east of Korenevo and were advancing west of Kremianoye. However, other Russian military blogs stated that the Ukrainian military still controlled Kremianoye, and had encircled the troops of the Russian 18th Motorized Infantry Division stationed north of Suhaya, as well as the troops of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade. Subsequently, another Russian military blog claimed that the fighting in Malaya Loknya was ongoing and these engagements did not affect the Ukrainian military’s further advance into Kurksk Oblast.
Russian media and military blogs reported that two Russian naval infantry brigades and at least 4 airborne regiments were deployed to the border areas adjacent to Ukraine for combat missions. These forces were redeployed to Kurksk from the northern front of Kharkov Oblast and the Robotyne area in the west of Zaporizhia.
The Russian military command appears to be resisting the redeployment of their forces from the high-priority offensive to recapture Pogorovsk in Donetsk Oblast back to Russia, and may continue to draw troops from lower-priority offensive operations in the entire theater to defend Kurksk.
As Russian military blogs extensively report the complex situation on the Ukrainian battlefield using Telegram channels, shocking news has emerged for these military blogs.
On August 24, French authorities arrested Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, sparking concerns among Russian extremist nationalist blogs about their ability to freely report on the Ukrainian conflict. The Russian Embassy in France promptly requested an explanation from the French authorities about Durov’s arrest, but they have not responded yet. There is widespread concern among Russian military blogs that their ability to disseminate information on Telegram will be compromised, while others fear that the Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology, and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) will restrict Russian users’ access to Telegram within the country. The Kremlin has long been trying to coerce Durov and his Telegram to comply with Russia’s censorship regulations and tighten control over Russian extremist nationalist blogs. So far, there have been no observed changes in how Russian sources report on the Ukrainian conflict through Telegram following Durov’s arrest.
The potential loss of Telegram within Russia will further hinder Russian military blogs from freely expressing opinions. Russian extremist nationalist blogs and other groups often utilize Telegram to make allegations against Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, Moscow’s policies, and even specific officials, bypassing Telegram’s censorship. Russian authorities have resorted to publicly arresting media personalities and grooming blog authors loyal to the Kremlin to control the information space on Telegram. The disruption of Telegram channels will enable the Kremlin to exert broader control over the information space.
Furthermore, the disruption of Telegram could also impact Russia’s military operations. Russian soldiers often rely on various information platforms, including Telegram, for temporary communication to organize military operations in Ukraine. Russian military blogs widely describe Telegram as the primary alternative for Russian military communications in Ukraine, highlighting the importance of establishing an official communication system by the Russian military command. However, Russian military blogs cannot ascertain if the Russian military has indeed created such a dedicated communication system or if one does not exist at all.
During the conflict, the Russian military has faced challenges in specialized communication, hindering their indirect fire operations. The Russian military also struggled to establish sufficient command and control systems to support their offensive in the north of Kharkov and defense of Kurksk. The Russian military relies on insecure personal communication devices to organize frontline command control, logistical supply, and other combat operations, largely compensating for the deficiencies in official communication but also making their operational intentions vulnerable. Recently, the Kremlin tried to criminalize the Russian military’s use of personal communication devices, but provided no meaningful context, such as whether the military’s issues with secure communication have been addressed.
The Research Institute of War believes that the sudden uncertainty over Telegram’s continued operation within Russia and any mishap in Telegram’s operation could potentially affect the Russian military’s frontline actions in the short term. Concerns over Telegram’s potential compromise during Durov’s arrest could prompt Russian military users of Telegram to migrate. Even if Telegram remains unaffected by Durov’s arrest, the Russian military may already be gradually disengaging from Telegram. This scenario aligns with the Kremlin’s desires.
On the other hand, Ukraine’s determination to target strategic Russian assets within Russia once again brings up discussions on lifting restrictions on Ukraine using Western weapons to attack Russian targets in its territory. Earlier this year, the US provided Advanced Tactical Missiles to Kyiv, limiting Ukraine to only use them against Russian military targets in Ukrainian-occupied territories and Crimea, but not in mainland Russia.
The Research Institute of War argues that Ukraine’s remote strikes on Russian rear military targets are crucial for weakening Russia’s overall military capability across the theater, and lifting restrictions on the use of Western weapons by Ukraine may enable them to target a broader range of critical Russian objectives.
White House officials state that due to Moscow deploying air defense firepower near Russian air bases close to Ukraine, the effectiveness of land-based tactical missile strikes on Russian targets will be limited compared to what Kyiv desires. However, on August 24, the Research Institute of War contradicted this in their assessment of Russian offensive campaigns, revealing that approximately 250 Russian military targets are within the range of Ukraine’s land-based tactical missiles. These targets include large military bases, communication stations, logistics centers, repair facilities, fuel depots, ammunition depots, and command control centers.
The Research Institute of War claims that rapid redeployment of military assets in these locations by Russia would be extremely difficult or even impossible. Of the 250 targets, only 17 are airports, which aircraft can relocate swiftly, but it is unlikely that military assets from the other 233 facilities can be rapidly deployed to safer locations like aircraft. Additionally, the Research Institute of War notes that the Ukrainian military does not need to strike every Russian military target within the range of Western-supplied weapons to exert significant pressure on Russian forces.
Ukraine does have the legal right to use the provided HIMARS and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems against Russian military targets within Russia, but these systems have shorter ranges. Among the 250 potential targets shown by the Research Institute of War, only 20 are within the attack range of these weapons. So far, US officials have focused primarily on the redeployment of Russian aviation assets, largely overlooking the impact of land-based tactical missiles. If the US lifts the ban, the Ukrainian military could potentially target all 250 Russian military targets using land-based tactical missiles.
The Research Institute of War believes that this move could compel Russian forces to concentrate their air defense and electronic warfare assets to protect rear military and semi-military facilities, preventing disruption or loss due to the withdrawal of these assets and impact on frontline operations. Ukraine’s drone strikes against Russia demonstrate that air defense coverage in many rear areas within Russia is very limited or absent in certain places, potentially allowing Ukraine to expand airborne operations along the front. Therefore, lifting restrictions would enable Ukraine to start targeting crucial Russian military objectives, prompting the Kremlin and Russian military command to reconsider deployments and the allocation of limited air defense and electronic warfare assets. The massive redeployment of assets from these facilities would pose a significant logistical challenge to the entire theater, with logistical disruptions limiting the ongoing offensive operations across the front.
Written by: [Redacted]
Produced by: Current Affairs Military Production Group
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