After President Lai Ching-te was officially inaugurated on May 20, the People’s Liberation Army of the Chinese Communist Party conducted a joint military exercise around Taiwan and the outlying islands from the 23rd to the 24th. However, the military drills by the Chinese Communist Party did not intimidate Taiwan. Instead, Taiwan’s stock market soared to new historic highs, while the mainland’s stock market was rattled. The Chinese military exercises also garnered condemnation from many countries, with the United States conducting multiple exercises on islands less than 200 kilometers north of Taiwan in the Philippines, both to practice new land tactics and to signal to the CCP that its commitment to defend Taiwan remains unchanged.
Every time a president is inaugurated in Taiwan, especially if they are from the Democratic Progressive Party, the Chinese Communist Party will inevitably conduct various exercises as a form of intimidation. Prior to President Tsai Ing-wen’s two inaugurations, the CCP held military drills, but this time, during President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration, they chose to conduct the exercise after the inauguration, lasting only two days without any live ammunition firing. Both the intensity and level of threat were reduced, and they dared not cross Taiwan’s red lines. Adding to the intrigue, a large Chinese tugboat of over 4,000 tons sank in the northeastern sea area of Zhoushan, Zhejiang, during the exercise, sparking widespread speculation.
The exercise, dubbed “Joint Sword—2024A,” referenced the round-Taiwan military exercise in August 2022, which saw a strong reaction from the Chinese Communist Party following the visit of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. The exercise area this time was highly similar to that of August 2022, but with significantly reduced intensity and no missile launches or live firing. Although no missiles were fired, the CCP still used animations to depict occupying and bombing Taiwan, clearly for internal propaganda purposes to divert attention from domestic social conflicts.
On the rare occasion of May 24, the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense released two black-and-white videos capturing a PLA H-6 bomber and a J-16 fighter jet from a tail perspective. While the Ministry did not disclose the equipment or method used for recording, and the videos lacked time, location, and distance data, it is widely believed that they were recorded using Taiwan’s F-16V with the US-made AN/AAQ-33 Sniper Pod.
The Sniper Pod produced by Lockheed Martin is an electro-optical sensor for passive detection with a long detection range. The Sniper Pod is approximately 2.5 meters long, weighing about 200 kilograms, capable of detecting ground targets from 15 kilometers high in the air, as well as distant aerial targets. Compared to the previous generation AN/AAQ-14 LANTIRN Pod, the Sniper Pod boasts 10 times higher accuracy and a 5-fold increase in detection range. In addition to precise ground strikes, the Sniper Pod can be used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance missions, and transmit high-definition images to the operation command center for use.
To deter potential military provocations by the CCP, the US, Japan, and the Philippines are continuously adjusting their deployments and strengthening readiness. In May, the US Army established the “Pacific Multinational Joint Readiness Center” in the Philippines at Fort Magsaysay in central Luzon, slated to be operational starting in June. This new center in the Philippines, alongside jungle and special training bases, will serve as the third Pacific joint training ground for the US military after Alaska and Hawaii, and the first complete joint readiness center in the Indo-Pacific region.
Japan has also decided to form a permanent institution called the “Joint Operations Command” with the US to command the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces along with the US forces stationed in Japan. The Joint Operations Command is expected to act as a coordinating hub to enhance the joint operational capabilities of the US and Japan. In recent years, Japan has also bolstered its military presence on the southwest islands close to Taiwan, deploying new military assets on remote islands like Yonaguni Island and expanding bases on those islands.
Drawing on the experience of the Russia-Ukraine war, in a scenario without absolute air superiority, ground and naval forces cannot achieve a quick victory, and amphibious landings have no chance of success. Faced with Taiwan’s dense air defense and anti-ship systems, as well as a considerable air force, the PLA dares not truly engage and can only continue to encroach while refraining from crossing Taiwan’s maritime and airspace redlines.