On May 20, the President-elect of the Republic of China (Taiwan) Lai Ching-te will be inaugurated. Mike McCaul, Chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee who has long supported Taiwan, has announced his visit to Taiwan to attend Lai Ching-te’s inauguration ceremony. He stated that he is familiar with Lai Ching-te and has had interactions with him and former Vice President and ex-President of the Legislative Yuan, Xiao Mei-chin. McCaul believes that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship has reached an unprecedented high, and that Lai Ching-te will need to continue to build upon this after taking office.
According to reports from the Central News Agency, President Tsai Ing-wen of the Republic of China is about to step down and pass the baton to Lai Ching-te, drawing attention to the diplomatic direction between Taiwan and mainland China. The Central News Agency obtained content from the upcoming documentary “Taiwan in Transition,” which interviewed Mike McCaul, co-chair of the “Congressional Taiwan Caucus” in the U.S. House of Representatives, along with Ami Bera and Mario Diaz-Balart, interpreting future Taiwan-U.S. relations and regional issues.
McCaul mentioned in the documentary that among the future priorities to be promoted between Taiwan and the U.S., he will strive to pass the Taiwan-U.S. “Avoidance of Double Taxation” bill, deepen Taiwan-U.S. trade relations, and expedite the delivery of military weapons to Taiwan. He jokingly mentioned that President Tsai used to frequently ask him when she would receive the weapons she had already paid for.
Regarding enhancing Taiwan’s security, McCaul believes Taiwan should strengthen its deterrence capabilities against the People’s Republic of China at sea, with anti-ship weapons and other equipment being crucial. He is committed to strengthening the trilateral security partnership among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS) and believes that the concept is closely related. Furthermore, U.S. assistance in Taiwan’s military training will also provide significant support.
McCaul emphasized the need for the U.S. to assist Taiwan in building its self-defense capabilities and ensuring Taiwan’s economic prosperity, making it imperative for Chinese President Xi Jinping to think twice before attempting to invade Taiwan, considering the significant military and economic costs such actions would entail. He stated, “My father participated in World War II, and I believe the U.S. does not want to see Pacific countries fall into the hands of dictators again.”
According to McCaul, Taiwan is important to the U.S., both in terms of its democratic values and industrial supply chain, with the Taiwan issue garnering bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress. Regardless of the outcome of this year’s U.S. presidential election, the fundamental U.S. stance towards Taiwan will not change.
The co-chairs of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ami Bera, from the Republican and Democratic parties respectively, serve as the best proof of bipartisan support for Taiwan in the U.S. Congress. Diaz-Balart stated that the U.S. Congress is a crucial cornerstone in Taiwan-U.S. relations, having passed many important pro-Taiwan bills in recent years. He expressed confidence that further bills in support of Taiwan will be passed, particularly as Xiao Mei-chin takes on the role of Vice President to Lai Ching-te, which will greatly benefit Taiwan-U.S. communication, deepen mutual trust, and serve as a foundation for deepening all relationships.
Bera mentioned that he met Lai Ching-te when he visited the U.S. as a legislator, and personally visited Lai during his trip to Taiwan last year. In January of this year, he specifically traveled to Taiwan to congratulate Lai on his election. Based on these interactions, Bera believes that Lai Ching-te is a thoughtful leader who is considerate of others.
Bera also noted that both he and Lai Ching-te were previously doctors before entering politics, and shared a belief in serving the people, transitioning from serving patients to public service. He expressed his confidence that Lai Ching-te will be a competent president, maintaining the current cross-strait policy without seeking conflict, asserting that Lai will continue Tsai Ing-wen’s legacy while also enhancing it and adding his own accomplishments.
As for the challenges that the Lai government may face in the field of diplomacy, Associate Professor Chen Shih-min from the Political Science Department at National Taiwan University stated that Lai Ching-te has declared his intention to continue with President Tsai’s policies, indicating that there won’t be significant changes. Taiwan will continue to strengthen its relationships with countries that share democratic values in order to unite the democratic camp in support of Taiwan. He pointed out that in the example of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, although economic sanctions imposed by Western countries have had limited effects on Russia, China’s foreign trade accounts for 40% of its GDP, suggesting that should Western countries apply economic sanctions, “it is believed that China’s economy would collapse.”
Chen emphasized that democratic countries will not tolerate the idea of a free and democratic Taiwan being forcibly annexed by China, highlighting Lai Ching-te’s proposal of the third pillar of the “Four Pillars of Peace,” which involves establishing partnerships with democratic countries worldwide. Chen believes that during his presidency, Lai Ching-te must convince these democratic countries to unite in supporting Taiwan.
Addressing national defense and security, Shen Ming-shih, Director of the National Security Institute at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, pointed out that the Indo-Pacific issue is a global concern. Recent actions such as the U.S., Japan, and South Korea participating in the NATO summit reflect various bilateral and multilateral cooperative relationships. This demonstrates that “if there are issues in the Indo-Pacific in the future, NATO is of course willing to assist; if conflicts occur on both sides at the same time, it can also ease the pressure on the U.S. facing two major wars alone.”
Shen stated that the most critical gap lies in Taiwan not having participated in joint military exercises with other countries in the island chain. If Taiwan were to become the weakest link in the future, it could lead to China’s influence directly permeating into the Pacific. Therefore, in addition to bilateral cooperation with the U.S., Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, amidst the increasing alignment between China and authoritarian countries like Russia, Taiwan’s role becomes even more crucial.
Shen believes that the primary task of the new government’s defense is continual enhancement of Taiwan’s defense capabilities to prevent Taiwan from becoming a breach for Chinese military aggression. Building upon the foundation laid by President Tsai, the Ministry of National Defense should continue reforms, strengthen cooperation with other countries, shape a “quasi-alliance” status, and be vigilant against the potential outflow of critical technologies, especially in the semiconductor industry.
The situation in the Indo-Pacific involves interactions between Taiwan and mainland China. Senior advisor at the Institute for National Policy Research, Chen Wen-jia, analyzed China’s recent strategies towards Taiwan, pointing out that Beijing will intensify its use of “cognitive warfare” and “gray zone strategies” against Taiwan, attempting to undermine Taiwanese confidence and morale, deplete their military readiness, and erode national security.
Chen is of the view that Lai Ching-te must not forget his original intentions, implement the “Four Pillars of Peace” policy, focus on the realization of “real peace through strength, advocating the establishment of a deterrent force,” and effectively leverage Taiwan’s existing strengths in geography, technology, democracy, and defense. By closely linking with the U.S.-Japan alliance, they can jointly build a strong deterrent force to deter potential Chinese military aggression against Taiwan.
Before the election, Lai Ching-te proposed the “Four Pillars of Peace,” including “strengthening national defense and asymmetric warfare capabilities,” “improving economic security and supply chains,” “continuing to establish partnerships with democratic countries,” and “establishing stable and principled leadership in cross-strait relations.”