Mastercard’s forecast report released on Thursday, September 18, indicates that due to inflation and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, consumers are more inclined to seek discounts and promotions, leading to a slowdown in holiday sales growth in the United States this year.
According to the latest forecast report from Mastercard’s Economic Research Institute, retail sales during the period from November 1 to December 24 are expected to grow by 3.6% this year, compared to a growth rate of 4.1% during the same period last year.
Holiday shopping is a major driver for retailers, and with the Trump administration’s constantly changing trade policies leading to rising costs of goods and suppressing demand, holiday shopping this year will be even more crucial.
The report by Mastercard also points out that this year, the time gap between Thanksgiving on November 27 and Christmas is shorter, and the early launch of promotional activities may boost online sales in early December.
Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard Economics Institute, stated, “The biggest difference compared to last year lies not in the total amount of expenditure, but in the composition of spending.”
“In the context of tariffs taking effect, this year will undoubtedly be a year where ‘price’ is more important.”
According to Mastercard’s report, online sales during the holiday season this year are expected to grow by 7.9%, compared to a growth rate of 8.6% last year.
It is anticipated that in-store sales will grow by 2.3%. During the 2024 holiday season, in-store sales grew by 2.8%.
Mastercard’s forecast is based on insights from SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all payment methods, excluding car sales.
Mastercard’s forecast aligns with recent reports from Salesforce, Deloitte, and PwC indicating sluggish holiday season sales.
As the holiday season approaches, retailers have issued mixed forecasts in recent weeks. Target and Best Buy have maintained their annual forecasts, while Walmart and Macy’s have raised theirs. However, toy manufacturer Mattel has lowered its forecast.
(Reference: Reports from Reuters)