“Mark Time: Russian Military Relies on Troop Superiority, Putin Bans Census”

Ukrainian forces withdrew from the heavily defended Hulidar on October 2nd. Hulidar, also known as Wuheleida or Bugledar. On October 3rd, Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Syrsky stated he had ordered reinforcement of defense in the eastern Donetsk region.

Following the loss of Hulidar, Ukrainian forces will fall back to the Pokrovsk-Kurakhovo-Donovsilka frontline, located near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia. The vital supply center of Pokrovsk has been a primary target for Russian forces, and Ukrainian troops may need to hold firm to prevent full Russian occupation of Donetsk Oblast.

Despite Ukraine’s sudden invasion of the Western Russian region of Kursk in August in an attempt to slow down Russian advances, Russian forces continue to steadily advance on multiple fronts in eastern Ukraine. Russian President Putin recently stated that the current main strategic goal is the complete occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

NATO’s new Secretary-General Mark Lut, in office for only 2 days, visited the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, on October 3rd. Lut vowed to discuss lifting restrictions on the use of weapons in Ukraine at the “Ramshteyn Group” meeting scheduled for October 12th and openly voiced support for Ukraine’s NATO membership. Lut also mentioned that “Russia’s casualties in the war in Ukraine have exceeded 500,000,” acknowledging some progress by Russian forces on the battlefield but highlighting the “very high cost.”

To address the shortfall of troops, Russian President Putin recently signed a presidential decree to further expand the military, increasing military personnel by 180,000. The conscription now extends not only to Russian mainland but also to the “New Russia” region, the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian forces.

Putin also signed an order banning census-taking for the next 5 years. This move aims to prevent Russians from knowing the extent of loss of able-bodied individuals and the number of eligible men wary of conscription and fleeing Russia during the ongoing two-and-a-half-year-long war.

With the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine diminishing Ukrainian enthusiasm for voluntary enlistment in combat, replenishing manpower has become a critical challenge for Ukrainian authorities. Earlier this year, the Ukrainian parliament passed new legislation lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25, with the aim of recruiting more men into the armed forces. Under the new law, Kyiv authorities have instructed Ukrainian men residing abroad to update their military service information online and encouraged their return to Ukraine to participate in combat.