On September 5th, at the 2024 Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russian President Putin was asked whether he was prepared to negotiate with Ukraine. He stated, “We have never refused to do so.” However, he also emphasized that any negotiations would need to be based on the agreements signed by both parties in Istanbul, Turkey, rather than temporary demands. Putin did not explicitly mention what the “Istanbul agreements” entail.
Prior to this, after Ukrainian forces entered Kherson, Putin had publicly stated his refusal to negotiate with Ukraine. This change in Putin’s stance could be seen as a strategic move or a sign that the conflict may be prolonged, especially with the pressure mounting on Putin after the Kherson incursion.
Putin’s policy of having it both ways does not seem to be effective as he aims to gain control over eastern Ukraine while attempting to push Ukrainian forces out of Kherson. The Ukrainian forces in Kherson are not heavily engaged at the moment, as their troop presence in the region is limited, possibly only around 10,000. Thus, the main goal for the Ukrainian army is to consolidate their current foothold and withstand potential future Russian offensives.
Following Ukraine’s incursion into Kherson on August 6, Russia’s major response has been intensified bombings targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. In addition to energy installations, residential buildings, schools, and hospitals have been increasingly targeted. The series of airstrikes by Russian forces since August 26 have consistently hit civilian targets, leading to suspicions that Russia may be intentionally bombing Ukrainian civilians under orders from the Kremlin to undermine Ukrainian resistance.
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year, Western arms production continues to expand while Russia faces the impacts on its military supply chain, potentially reaching its industrial capacity limits. Moreover, the U.S. is considering providing AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles to Ukraine. According to Reuters on the 3rd, U.S. officials indicated that they were nearing an agreement with Ukraine to supply JASSM missiles capable of deep penetration into Russian territory, one of the most powerful long-range weapons the U.S. has to offer. In response, Russia issued a warning, cautioning the U.S. government against crossing Russia’s red lines. However, the exact location of Russia’s red lines seems unclear to the outside world, as they appear to shift constantly, leading some to mock them for resembling a red carpet.
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