China’s pork prices in August fell by approximately 8.3% month-on-month and 33.6% year-on-year, reaching 13.77 yuan (RMB) per kilogram, marking a new low for the year 2025.
Data from China Pig Farming Network shows that on August 10th, the price of live pigs (crossbred, as well) in China was 13.77 yuan per kilogram, experiencing a decrease both month-on-month and year-on-year, hitting a new low for the year and dropping by about 13.9% since the beginning of the year, falling below the breakeven point for the entire industry. Calculating from the third quarter of last year when pork prices started to fluctuate downward, prices have plummeted from around 21.3 yuan per kilogram to 13.77 yuan per kilogram, marking a cumulative decline of 35.3%.
According to a report by “First Financial” on August 10th, weak demand and strong supply in the Chinese pork market have led to a continual decline in live pig prices throughout the year, especially since entering the off-season for pork consumption in July, causing prices to further drop due to sluggish consumption.
An agricultural analyst mentioned that it will be some time before the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” for sales, and the ongoing off-season for pork consumption may keep pork prices fluctuating and under downward pressure. He said, “In the short term, there may be certain pressure on the market due to recent pig sales, which could also have a certain impact on prices. Given the current situation, ongoing capacity regulation in the industry may be relatively strong, and maintaining pork prices may be a long-term task.”
The report highlighted that the pig industry in China is currently in the sixth round of the “pig cycle,” where the reality of strong supply and weak demand for pork has yet to see effective improvement. The abundant supply coupled with the off-season for summer pork consumption has kept pork prices low, leading to a general double-digit year-on-year decline in live pig sales revenue for listed pig companies in July.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that by the end of June, there were 424 million pigs in inventory on the mainland, a 2.2% increase. Among them, there were 40.43 million sows in inventory, accounting for 103.7% of the normal maintenance level, approaching the upper limit of reasonable capacity regulation. Sow inventory is the “master switch” of pig supply, directly determining the scale of pork production for slaughter in the following 10 months. With sow inventory currently at 103.7% of the normal maintenance level, it indicates a significant increase in pig production for slaughter in the second half of the year and after the Chinese New Year next year, suggesting that maintaining pork prices may be a long-term task in this round.
The decline in pork prices has led to a decrease in the profitability of pig companies. Leading pig company Muyuan Group reversed its loss to profit in the second quarter of 2024, achieving a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.208 billion yuan and then followed by a continued profit of 9.652 billion yuan in the third quarter. However, Muyuan Group’s performance declined quarter-on-quarter afterwards, with the revenue growth rate dropping to 3.16% in the fourth quarter of 2024 (down from 30.45%), and net profit attributable to the parent company decreasing by 23.33% quarter-on-quarter. The first-quarter revenue and net profit have also fallen by 12.41% and 39.85% respectively. Similarly, listed pig companies such as Wen’s Group, Tangrenshen, and Tianbang Food have experienced similar fluctuations in performance.