Entering July, 17 alcohol-related stocks have already disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with the alcohol sector showing a collective downward trend as most alcohol companies experienced losses in the first half. Analysts believe this is attributed to various factors such as policies and residents’ purchasing power.
According to mainland China’s “21st Century Economic Report,” as of July 15, 17 alcohol stocks have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, including liquor, beer, yellow wine, health wine, and grape wine. Among the 17 listed alcohol companies, 11 saw a year-on-year decline in revenue, with many experiencing double-digit drops.
Out of the 17 listed alcohol companies, 9 reported losses in the first half of the year. Among the remaining 8 companies, several also saw significant declines in profits. Overall, the alcohol sector’s performance in the first half of the year shows a collective downward trend.
Jinzhongzi Wine, Shanghai Guijiu (*ST Yanshi), and Hainan Yedao (*ST Yedao) all reported losses in the first half of the year. Jinzhongzi Wine, which had recently turned around from losses, slipped back into losses in the first half of this year, with an expected loss between 60 to 90 million yuan. Shanghai Guijiu is expected to incur losses between 50 to 75 million yuan.
Liquor giant Jiugui Liquor, with over 20 years of history, is forecasted to see a profit of only 8 to 12 million yuan, marking a drastic drop of over 90% compared to the previous year. Shuijingfang is expected to achieve a net profit of 105 million yuan in the first half of the year, down by 56.52% year-on-year. Shunxin Agriculture, the owner of Niulanshan, expects a net profit of 155 to 195 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 53.85% to 63.32%.
Small and medium-sized alcohol companies have been hit hard by this round of losses, while top companies such as Maotai and Wuliangye have maintained relatively stable growth through a trade-off between price and quantity. For example, Maotai’s prices have seen a significant decrease compared to previous figures.
Expert commentator Wang He commented, “In fact, since the beginning of this year, Maotai’s marketing strategy has been focusing on a price defense battle for Feitian Maotai, but eventually failed to sustain the 2000 yuan price level and continued to decline.”
“The price of Feitian Maotai has experienced four major drops in history, but this time, it is more intense than ever before. Words like price collapse and severe moments, which have never appeared before, have frequently surfaced in public opinion, indicating the huge shock that the price breach of Feitian Maotai has brought to the industry.”
According to the “21st Century Economic Report,” the grape wine market is in a state of overall downturn. Among four grape wine companies – Mogao Share, Weilong Share, Zhongxin Noya, and ST Tongpu, only Zhongxin Noya barely achieved a profit of several hundred thousand yuan, while the others all suffered losses.
For domestic grape wine, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first five months of 2025, the production of grape wine by large-scale enterprises in the country amounted to only 36,000 kiloliters, a decrease of 26.5% year-on-year.
Yellow wine has been a hot category this year, but it has shown clear polarization. Kuaiji Mountain has been highly sought after on e-commerce platforms and in the capital market, while Shanghai yellow wine company, Jinfeng Liquor, incurred losses of several million yuan in the first half of the year.
As a popular fast-moving consumer good, beer has seen further differentiation this year. Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer have maintained high growth levels above the industry average, with profits exceeding 1 billion yuan and 500 million yuan respectively in the first half of the year. Lanzhou Huanghe incurred increased losses in the first half of the year, while Tibet Development, though profitable, is forecasted to have a non-recurring net profit of less than 9 million yuan in the first half of the year.
According to the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, second-quarter Baijiu sales dropped by 17% year-on-year in 2025. Wang He believes, “After the economic upheaval in 2022, the Baijiu industry has been greatly impacted, leading to a profound adjustment that has persisted until today. This alcohol ban has exacerbated the situation, making the overall Baijiu outlook even more grim.”
At the beginning of 2025, the Chinese Communist Party issued an internal disciplinary document, “Regulations on Strict Economy and Anti-Waste in Party and Government Organs,” stipulating “no alcohol at work dinners” and banning the provision of tobacco and high-end dishes. After the amendment on May 18, which was officially released, it was considered the “strictest alcohol ban in history.” According to reports from Huizhong Financial, following the policy’s implementation, Baijiu stocks experienced a collective decline in May, with high-end liquor stocks such as Maotai and Wuliangye falling by 1% to 3%.
The Chinese Alcohol Association analysis believes that the current administrative consumption ratio has decreased significantly, and the impact of the new “alcohol ban” primarily affects market sentiment. The report noted that the day after the policy was announced, the Baijiu sector only saw a modest 2% to 3% pullback, contrasting sharply with the dramatic fluctuations following the 2012 “Eight Provisions.”
Looking back at data from Zhongjin Securities, after the “Eight Provisions” were introduced 13 years ago, the Baijiu index experienced a deep decline for about 6 quarters (approximately 1.5 years), with the maximum withdrawal valuation reaching 60%. The data shows that in 2014, the overall revenue and net profit of listed companies in the Baijiu industry dropped by 7.7% and 15.6%, respectively. Compared to 13 years ago, the Chinese Alcohol Association stated: “This adjustment is relatively mild, reflecting the industry’s improved ability to adapt to policy impacts.”
Wang He believes that the term “mild impact” is only superficial, as the alcohol ban has been in effect for a short time, and its full impact on the Baijiu industry has yet to be fully realized. The current data is insufficient to explain this impact. Although the administrative consumption ratio is not high compared to 13 years ago, the psychological impact on society is strong and lasting.
“‘Liquid gold’ Feitian Maotai is reverting to the rational value of commodities and the essence of consumer goods, breaking the bubble of previously hyped high-end liquors,” Wang He commented.
He also compared the background of the two alcohol bans. He stated that 13 years ago, the official “Eight Provisions” initially had a significant impact on the Baijiu sector, but it eventually subsided, with high-end dining experiences rebounding. This time, the background of the alcohol ban has changed. When the “Eight Provisions” were introduced last time, the Chinese economy was still in a growth phase. However, since 2022, the Chinese economy has been unstable.
He mentioned, “In the current situation with no visible hope for the future and widespread collapse of confidence in society, this has led to a significant downgrade in consumption.”
He further added, “So, in such a background, with the addition of the CCP’s ‘alcohol ban,’ the overall alcohol industry situation is further exacerbated. Therefore, the deep adjustment in the Baijiu industry is likely to take more than just one or two years. The reported losses so far are just the beginning.”
Over forty alcohol-related public companies will release their official mid-year reports in late August. Looking at the current situation, the outlook is not optimistic.