Is China’s economy currently in recovery? Recently, the WeChat public account “Moving Forward 2020” published an article titled “viewing economic recovery through a few small things around us”, attempting to argue that the economy is recovering by citing micro phenomena such as the reopening of shops in urban villages, bustling business at barbershops and rice noodle shops. However, this article has sparked huge controversy among readers, with a large number of netizens “refuting” the author’s viewpoint, pointing out its biased observations. The feedback from readers who received the most likes all believe that the influx of customers at barbershops and rice noodle shops is actually a vivid reflection of consumer downgrading.
The aforementioned WeChat article mentioned that in recent years, the overall economic environment has not been favorable, but some recent small incidents around us have been sending out different signals.
For instance, shops in nearby urban villages have started renovating and reopening one after another. Before the pandemic, this place used to be bustling with people at night. However, as the economy declined, the number of migrant workers decreased, making business increasingly difficult. Most shops closed down, leaving the area deserted at night. Now, the urban villages are slowly returning to their former vibrancy.
Also, a new barbershop recently opened nearby and achieved breakeven in less than two months. Barbershops mainly rely on loyal customers. With several barbershops already in the vicinity, being able to achieve breakeven quickly is quite remarkable. The barber shop owner mentioned that business has indeed improved a bit, but the primary reason is that the rent has become cheaper, only half of the neighboring shop’s rent. The adjacent shop used to be a barbecue restaurant which closed down before the new year. Poor business and high rent led to losses even after operating for six months.
Furthermore, the rice noodle shop near the barbecue restaurant is now also doing incredibly well.
Based on these three small incidents, the author concludes that the micro subjects are indeed beginning to recover.
After the publication of the article, dozens of readers from different regions of mainland China left comments below the article, questioning the author’s “recovery theory”, indicating a significant gap between public and official (indirect) narratives.
WeChat automatically displays the IP addresses of the commenters. The comments with more likes and rankings are from various locations such as Jiangxi, Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Beijing, and even a Vietnamese netizen participating in the discussion.
Leading the way is “Kaiyuan Information” from Jiangxi: The booming business at barbershops and rice noodle shops is due to the economic downturn, not a sign of economic recovery, as these are essential for survival. As of now, this comment has received 183 likes.
“Xiaohui” from Guangdong: Oh my, you think you can see economic recovery from this? Nonsense.
“Guqiao” from Shandong: It’s quite the opposite of what you’re saying. Every industry is struggling to make money, leading people to downgrade their consumption. Food stalls and roadside fast food shops in neighborhoods are booming, and the number of customers at barber shops charging between 5 to 15 yuan has increased. Those who can see the essence through the phenomenon are those who are truly aware.
“Yu Jian” from Jiangsu: The economy has not recovered at this stage.
“Meng Huan” from Sichuan: Not necessarily. In our neighborhood, restaurants with an average price of around 100 yuan per person are still closing down, but night markets, street stalls, and the rice noodle shop you mentioned seem to be doing better than before. This shows the continued trend of consumer downgrading. Many other netizens agree with the “consumer downgrade” point of view.
“Tu Zi” from Jiangsu: Haven’t received a salary in three months, just managing basic living expenses.
“A Guangzhou Tian Tai Yang” from Guangdong: Author, where is your location? From what I know and see in Guangdong, factories and companies are contracting, leading to a significant increase in unemployment among workers!!!
“Lao Wang” from Shanghai: So, the small barbershops and rice noodle shops in China are what’s reviving the economy???
“Qi Dian Zhong” from Guangdong: These are all basic necessities of life, not indicators of economic change. When you see clothing stores opening everywhere, and the food in restaurants getting better, then that’s economic recovery.
“Qing Feng” from Sichuan: Consumer downgrade.
“Le Hong” from Beijing: Economic recovery is far from coming: jeans that used to sell for 200 yuan are now only 60 to 80 yuan in stores. Daily busy restaurants are now only half as crowded as they used to be, if not less. There are too many Didi drivers, and they are not making a profit.
“Dian Nao Mang” from Beijing: Check out Chen Zhongcun, please go see the urban commercial streets.
“Kuai Le Quan Quan” from Henan: In reality, more businesses are closing down.
“Tony” from Vietnam suggests the standard for “real recovery”: If the average person used to go for a haircut once a month, and because your shop is 3 yuan cheaper, they now come twice a month. If your shop being cheaper by 3 yuan attracts customers, causing less business at other places and leading to one shop closing down, that’s economic recovery. The same applies to the rice noodle shop; if despite being more expensive, people still come to eat frequently, that’s true economic confidence and recovery. Some users speculate that Tony moved from China to Vietnam, as domestic audiences are accustomed to reading WeChat articles.
This debate on economic recovery not only reflects the complex and genuine economic experiences of the Chinese people but also illustrates the huge gap between macro data and individual micro perceptions. While the authorities emphasize economic recovery, more ordinary people are facing the reality of unemployment, salary cuts, and tightening consumption with anxiety, adding more uncertainty to the future economic trajectory.