A report released by the French think tank “Institute for International and Strategic Affairs” (IRIS) emphasizes the importance of the Taiwan Strait to the global supply chain and European interests. France should anticipate potential chaos in the event of escalating tensions and deploy diplomatic, economic, and military measures to deal with it.
The report titled “Competitive and Potential Crisis Tests in the Taiwan Strait: France’s Strategic Challenges and Choices,” highlights the strategic significance of the Taiwan Strait, which accounts for over 20% of global maritime transportation, with a total transportation volume reaching $2.45 trillion in 2024. It has become a focal point of tension between China and the United States due to strategic competition, technological rivalry, and ideological differences.
Additionally, Taiwan holds a core position in global semiconductor production, manufacturing up to 90% of the most advanced chips. Given the close connection between France’s and Europe’s interests with maritime security and technology supply chains, an escalation of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could have serious ramifications.
Since 2018, France has positioned itself as a significant power in the Indo-Pacific region, aiming to become a “balancing force” by defending a multilateral model and partnerships to provide a “third way” for countries caught between China and the United States.
The report outlines various hypothetical scenarios of a Taiwan Strait crisis, including partial isolation or full-scale blockade, precision strikes, high-density cyber-attacks, and actual invasion. Among these scenarios, invasion poses the highest risk of direct, immediate conflict between China and the United States and its allies, with political, military, and personnel costs that the Chinese Communist Party considers a risky gamble.
The report stresses that an escalation of military tensions in the Taiwan Strait would significantly impact the global economy, and Europe, including France, would not be immune. Disruptions in supply chains and trade would particularly affect industries heavily reliant on Asian imports of components, such as automotive, electronics, and telecommunications.
Disruptions in trade would also lead to increases in energy and raw material prices, shortages of strategic raw materials and components hindering industrial production and exports to Asia, and triggering financial market turbulence.
The resilience of Europe will depend on various factors, with diversification of supply chains and strengthening the production of strategic components like semiconductors being crucial.
In the event of an escalation in the Taiwan Strait situation, the report provides recommendations for the stance France could take.
Firstly, seeking diplomatic solutions and exerting pressure. France could propose resolutions to the United Nations Security Council calling for de-escalation and respect for the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and take similar actions within the Group of Seven industrialized nations (G7) by forming a temporary voluntary alliance. If negotiations fail, gradual diplomatic measures against China, such as strengthening diplomatic ties with Taiwan, could be considered.
Secondly, protecting and evacuating nationals, strengthening regional military deployments, protecting French companies in Taiwan, developing emergency industry plans, and providing economic support measures. In the event of a crisis deepening, France and European countries could activate strategic reserves and reorganize supply chains.
Moreover, given the critical importance of freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait to trade, economy, and global order, France could ensure the security of sea lanes. Depending on the nature of the escalating situation, allied nations could agree on maintaining open maritime traffic or establishing alternative routes. In case of worsening conditions, joint naval patrols with the United States Navy, European, and Asian Navies could be conducted to demonstrate maritime deterrence.
If Taiwan were to face direct attack or prolonged blockade, causing humanitarian impacts on its people, France could provide humanitarian assistance under international authorization, dispatching medical and civil defense teams to ensure the delivery of necessary supplies via air or sea transport. Additionally, offering non-combat logistical support and mobilizing the international community would be essential.
Lastly, military support or intervention is a sensitive issue that would depend on allied requests or international authorization. There are two options under this assumption: indirect contributions involving providing intelligence and protection to support allied operations, and limited intervention where French naval forces may consider joining directly involved allied forces in actions such as maritime patrols and aerial reconnaissance.
France and its European partners could also accept missions to secure secondary theaters, where potential adversaries like China and its potential supporters, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, may take actions to divert attention.
In conclusion, the report emphasizes that the assumption of an escalation in the Taiwan Strait situation and high-intensity conflict is no longer just a forecast but increasingly likely in the strategic scenario within the next 10 years. Faced with such a prospect, France cannot remain passive; it should anticipate potential chaos and reinforce regional civil and military deployments that are currently insufficient.