On September 26th, several media outlets reported that the latest nuclear-powered submarine of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sank at the end of May or early June near a shipyard in Wuhan, sparking widespread attention. However, the CCP has been vigorously trying to cover up this incident. Experts believe that the sinking of the submarine reflects structural weaknesses within the CCP’s navy.
The sinking submarine was the first of the new generation of Zhou-class nuclear-powered submarines, featuring a unique X-shaped stern design aimed at enhancing the submarine’s maneuverability.
According to reports from The Wall Street Journal, the sunk submarine was observed near a pier on the Yangtze River in Wuhan in late May while undergoing final equipment preparations before setting sail. Satellite images from the scene showed that a large floating crane arrived in early June to salvage the submarine from the riverbed and bring it ashore.
Su Ziyun, director of Strategic and Resource Institute at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, confirmed that the sunken submarine is indeed a new model of the CCP. It has been transformed from the traditional 039 submarine with diesel-electric propulsion system to nuclear power, making it an experimental submarine.
“The photos of this submarine were exposed on social media from May to July, at that time the U.S. Department of Defense hadn’t confirmed it. Now it’s confirmed and mentioned yesterday, similar to when the U.S. disclosed all of the CCP’s rocket arsenal a couple of years ago, serving as a deterrent. With the CCP’s recent activities, including testing intercontinental missiles,” Su told Dajiyuan.
Shen Mingshi, a researcher and director at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, said that such valuable intelligence is usually kept confidential. Once it is made public, the purpose is to let the CCP know that its weaknesses have been exposed. He noted that revealing such incidents can help gauge their accuracy and impact based on the CCP’s reactions.
In cases of military accidents like this, Western countries make them headline news, prompting public scrutiny and inquiries into the cause and responsibility. However, neither the CCP military nor local authorities have acknowledged this incident.
On Friday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, when asked about the incident, said they were unaware and provided no information.
Su Ziyun explained that concealing information is a daily practice for the CCP. They will hide everything they can, only reporting when the CCP’s Military Commission deems it to have propaganda value.
“Why does the CCP hide it?” Shen Mingshi said, the most crucial consideration is not to let others know what their submarines’ main weaknesses are and to avoid impacting officials’ promotions.
The cause of the sinking of the CCP submarine is still unclear. A senior U.S. defense official stated, “In addition to the apparent issues with training standards and equipment quality, this incident raises deeper questions about the PLA’s internal accountability and oversight of the defense industry, which has long been plagued by corruption.”
Shen Mingshi analyzed various possible reasons for the submarine sinking. One possibility is that the pressure hull on the outside of the submarine may have cracks and leaked water. “The choice and welding of pressure hull steel plates, or bending forming, are basic technologies. If leakage and sinking occur due to welding or sealing errors, that would be a low-level mistake.”
“There may also be internal system issues, resulting in leaks after an explosion; or when encapsulating certain systems such as torpedo outlets, inadequate sealing could cause sinking.”
He further added that fishermen in the Taiwan Strait previously saw a CCP nuclear submarine passing through the waters using snorkeling, indicating that it couldn’t submerge due to a malfunction, requiring it to return to port quickly for repairs.
“It’s evident that the CCP’s nuclear-powered submarine technological capabilities lag far behind the United States,” he said.
Shen Mingshi also suggested that it could be a personnel quality issue. “If the personnel are constantly changing, with inexperienced or inadequate abilities, or if there are disciplinary issues, not following operating procedures, with some naval officers and soldiers engaging in corruption like government officials, the work is done halfway or not too seriously, which could lead to such a situation.”
“If it’s a discipline problem, and it’s a widespread issue, it could indeed affect the PLA’s combat effectiveness, and Xi Jinping may not easily initiate conflicts and wars.”
The United States has also faced similar setbacks, such as the sinking of the nuclear-powered USS Guitarro submarine in a shipyard in California due to a series of errors in 1969.
Su Ziyun pointed out that the accidents with nuclear power in the United States in the 1960s occurred during the early development stages of nuclear power when there wasn’t sufficient experience with pressure tubes, etc. and thus mistakes were made.
“The CCP is a different story, reflecting structural weaknesses within the CCP’s navy. It rushes things too much, errors might be left unnoticed due to the haste, just like the WS10 and WS15 engines the CCP’s air force developed. These require accumulated technological expertise over centuries and if rushed, potential vulnerabilities may be overlooked, leading to potential failures of critical components during operations.”
U.S. officials stated that they have not found any signs indicating CCP officials have conducted radiation sampling of the water or surrounding environment. This suggests that there might not have been a nuclear leak in this sinking incident.
Su Ziyun explained that the likelihood of nuclear fuel inside is low, as nuclear submarines have safety designs. Even if the nuclear fuel is loaded or the reactor has been activated, in the event of an accidental sinking, the nuclear reactor would immediately shut down. Therefore, the chance of a nuclear leak is low unless the factory had loaded nuclear fuel but failed to fully close the nuclear power unit, causing nuclear contamination, a disaster for the Yangtze River.
“If the Yangtze River is contaminated, samples can be collected outside in the open sea in the East China Sea or through satellite imaging. Nuclear water radiation has distinct colors. Currently, it seems that such phenomena have not occurred.”
The CCP has been striving to expand its production of nuclear-powered submarines, previously concentrated in the northeastern city of Huludao but now shifting to Wuhan to manufacture nuclear-powered attack submarines.
The CCP still heavily relies on diesel-powered submarines, which have shorter ranges compared to nuclear-powered submarines and must surface more frequently.
CCP submarines are noisier, making them easily detectable by the U.S. and Japan once they set sail, leading to continuous tracking by attack submarines, anti-submarine aircraft, and surface vessels.
According to the latest 2023 China Military Power Report from the Pentagon, the CCP Navy possesses 48 diesel-powered attack submarines, six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, and six nuclear-powered attack submarines.
The report stated that the CCP is developing new types of attack submarines, surface vessels, and naval aircraft to counter U.S. and allied efforts in aiding Taiwan during conflicts and to achieve a “maritime advantage” within the first island chain.
In June of this year, CCTV specially released a documentary on CCP submarines, publicly reporting on the latest 039C conventional-powered submarine. The newly developed 041 submarine is optimized based on the 039C model.
Su Ziyun stated that the CCP Navy aims to largely nuclearize its future underwater fleet, as nuclear-powered submarines can run faster and farther underwater without the need for coming up for air but are not as quiet as diesel-electric submarines.
He pointed out that diesel-electric submarines are comparable to hybrid cars, able to run on electric motors without initiating the engine, whereas nuclear-powered submarines require the continuous operation of the nuclear reactor, generating noise from steam and generators, somewhat akin to starting both the engine and motor of a hybrid car simultaneously, increasing noise levels.
“For defensive-oriented countries, diesel-electric submarines are a good choice. If the CCP’s 041 submarine testing is successful and mass-produced, it would mean a significant increase in its underwater nuclear-powered submarine numbers, symbolizing the CCP Navy’s strategic shift towards an offensive naval force.”
Analysts note that while the CCP has the world’s largest navy in terms of ship numbers, there is a vast disparity in capabilities compared to the U.S. Navy, preventing it from becoming a true long-range naval force, partly due to shortcomings in underwater warfare.
Shen Mingshi stated that indeed the CCP’s naval power is inferior to that of the United States and Japan in terms of personnel quality, training, standards, technology, systems, and equipment, suggesting a gap of 10 to 15 years between the naval strengths of the U.S. and China.
“All U.S. submarines are nuclear-powered, the CCP has fewer nuclear-powered submarines, and if the CCP wants to build nuclear-powered submarines similar to the U.S., it would take them ten to fifteen years.”
Su Ziyun mentioned that the gap between U.S. and Chinese submarines is currently a generation apart (10 years), primarily in mechanical aspects. However, this difference is likely to widen to approximately two generations in the future because China’s advanced chips are being restricted, limiting its chip technology to the level of twenty years ago.
“Therefore, the future battleground between Western democratic countries and China will be electronic technology, especially advanced chip technology. If the CCP can’t obtain or breakthrough in advanced chip technology, it will fall further and further behind.”
[Translated from Chinese]