Lai Ching-Te to Take Office, Analysis: Impact on Taiwan-US-China Relations

On May 20th, Taiwan’s President-elect Lai Ching-te and Vice President-elect Hsiao Mei-chin will take office. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China announced on the 17th that 73 delegations from foreign countries consisting of nearly 700 individuals will visit Taiwan to express their congratulations. Experts are analyzing the impact of Lai Ching-te’s inauguration on Taiwan’s relations with the United States and China.

Among the foreign dignitaries attending the inauguration ceremony, there are delegations from 8 countries with heads of state, 1 delegation with deputy heads of state, 1 delegation of foreign ministers, and 2 special envoy delegations. In addition, there are congratulatory delegations from countries like the United States, Canada, and Singapore, as well as members of the Taiwan Friendship Group of the European Parliament, and parliamentarians from the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, and South Korea.

Regarding the incoming administrations of Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Mei-chin, Lai Jung-wei, the Executive Director of the Taiwan Inspiration Association (TIA), expressed to a media outlet that considering Taiwan’s security in the context of relations with the U.S. and China, Taiwan’s biggest national security threat is undoubtedly from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In recent years, Taiwan has faced increased threats from the CCP, leading to instability in the Taiwan Strait. The United States has also heightened its concerns about CCP threats, with instances of CCP interference even in American elections. Therefore, Taiwan should demonstrate determination and resolve to work with the U.S. in governing the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific region.

Lai emphasized that the ongoing U.S. presidential election shows a trend towards a tougher stance against the CCP, as both candidates, Trump and Biden, have policies aimed at countering the CCP, reflecting domestic American sentiments. Given the friendly Taiwan-U.S. relations, Lai believes that the new Taiwanese government under Lai Ching-te should focus on collaborative efforts with the U.S. in managing the Taiwan Strait, breaking through CCP disinformation campaigns, strengthening public vigilance, and preventing infiltration of spies or agents sympathetic to the CCP within Taiwan.

Regarding economic analysis, Lai pointed out two key factors. Firstly, the economic ties between the U.S. and Europe with China have inadvertently boosted China’s economic strength, compromising other countries’ economic interests. As China’s economic might grows, it poses a security threat globally, supporting rogue nations like Russia and North Korea, while engaging in grey-zone operations to disrupt democracies. Secondly, the U.S. is wary of China’s rising economic power, which has led to increased defense spending by the CCP, potentially jeopardizing Taiwan’s security. Taiwan’s economic success heavily relies on high-tech industries, which can impact global economic trends.

In light of these developments, Lai stressed the importance of strategic communication between the U.S. and other countries to raise awareness about the CCP’s threats. The G7 meeting of foreign ministers reiterated the essential nature of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for global safety and prosperity, emphasizing the need for peaceful resolutions to cross-strait issues.

On the front of values, Lai highlighted the stark contrast between democratic nations’ universal values of human rights, freedoms, democracy, and religious liberty, against the CCP’s authoritarian regime centered around Xi Jinping’s absolute rule. The CCP’s regime represses divergent views, aiming to subvert democracy in democratic nations through infiltration and divisive tactics to sway elections in favor of CCP-favored candidates and diminish democratic institutions in countries like Taiwan and the U.S.

Regarding legislative actions within Taiwan, Lai criticized the urgency displayed by certain lawmakers to push through legislation prior to Lai Ching-te’s inauguration on May 20th, questioning the motives behind such hasty moves and potential influence from China. He expressed concerns about legislative maneuvers that could disrupt Taiwan and play into the hands of the CCP.

As the United States House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman, McCain, a long-time supporter of Taiwan, intends to attend Lai Ching-te’s inauguration and believes that the U.S.-Taiwan relations have reached an unprecedented high. He emphasized the need for Taiwan to enhance its deterrence capabilities against the CCP, focusing on equipping Taiwan’s military forces with anti-ship weaponry. The cooperation within the AUKUS alliance with Australia and the UK plays a crucial role in ensuring regional security. McCain emphasized the importance of U.S. assistance in bolstering Taiwan’s defense capabilities and economic prosperity, making any potential CCP aggression towards Taiwan a costly endeavor.

In conclusion, Lai Jung-wei advocated for Taiwan’s integration into the international community, with enhanced partnerships with the U.S., Europe, and Japan, fostering economic relations to diversify and internationalize Taiwan’s industries. He warned against deepening economic ties with the CCP, which could compromise Taiwan’s security and economy, urging for caution to safeguard the Republic of China’s interests amidst global challenges and CCP assertiveness.