In comparison to North Korea and Russia strengthening their alliance, multiple South Korean reports suggest that the relationship between Pyongyang and Beijing appears to be cooling off. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, however, denies this. Experts point out that Kim Jong-un has been seeking to reduce dependence on China and may be trying to balance the influence of both China and Russia on North Korea.
According to a report by the South Korean newspaper, “Chosun Ilbo,” the National Intelligence Service of South Korea recently discovered that after meeting with Russian President Putin in June, Kim Jong-un issued instructions in July to North Korean diplomats working in China, saying, “Don’t pay attention to what China thinks.”
Several recent incidents seem to confirm the strain in the relationship between China and North Korea. NK News, specialized in monitoring developments in North Korea, reported that during the “Victory Day” (Korean War Armistice) commemoration event held in Pyongyang on July 27th, ambassadors from Russia, Vietnam, Cuba, and other countries were present, but the absence of the Chinese Ambassador Wang Yajun was notable, which NK News described as “extremely rare.”
On July 26th, the Chinese state media Xinhua reported that the Chinese Ambassador to North Korea, Wang Yajun, led over 40 embassy officials and representatives of the Chinese community in North Korea to pay tribute at the Monument to the Martyrs of the Chinese People’s Volunteers at Yunshan.
According to South Korean news agency reports, Ambassador Wang Yajun held a dinner on July 11th in Pyongyang to commemorate the 63rd anniversary of the signing of the “China-North Korea Bilateral Treaty,” but North Korea only assigned Kim Sung-chan, President of Kim Il-sung University, and mid-level officials to attend, with no high-ranking officials present. This was confirmed by the Chinese Embassy in North Korea on July 12th.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated on August 1st during a press conference that Beijing values and maintains its consistent stance of developing traditional friendly cooperative relations with North Korea and that there has been no change in this position. He noted that recently, “some countries” and media outlets have been fabricating stories and exaggerating the state of China-North Korea relations, which he emphasized was done with ulterior motives. Lin Jian also mentioned that China welcomes the development of relations between North Korea and Russia.
Regarding Kim Jong-un’s directive to North Korean diplomats not to pay attention to China, former director and honorary professor of the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, Weng Ming-xian, stated that if this directive is true, it shows that Kim Jong-un is aiming for a strategy of power balance, balancing the influence of China and Russia on North Korea.
Weng Ming-xian pointed out that China has long been North Korea’s big brother, supporting North Korea internationally through economic and energy means, but in recent years, China has had to face strategic confrontations with the United States. With the U.S. believing that North Korea supports Russia in the war, there have been many sanctions imposed on North Korea, reducing the resources provided by China. Therefore, North Korea is seeking more support from Russia. Weng Ming-xian stated, “From this perspective, there is a sense of strategic balance.”
The South Korean Institute for National Security Strategy recently published a report suggesting that North Korea may be trying to force China to address the weakening of its influence by hyping up the perceived “honeymoon period” in North Korean-Russian relations.
On July 30th, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell testified before Congress, noting that China and Russia are competing for influence over North Korea, and China is feeling “anxious” about the strengthening cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
Weng Ming-xian believes that North Korea aims to pursue a more proactive and independent diplomatic strategy apart from China, and that Russia is willing to provide relevant technology to North Korea to enable it to focus on a military-oriented strategic thinking and play a more critical role in Northeast Asia.
Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, Chen Shih-min, told Epoch Times that concerning the absence of the Chinese Ambassador at public events, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian did not deny it but emphasized that the China-North Korea relationship is still good. It appears that due to Putin’s visit to North Korea and the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, there may have been some dissatisfaction on the part of the Chinese Ambassador, leading to his absence, which is just a continuation of the changes in the China-North Korea relationship.
China has always been North Korea’s major trading partner, accounting for over 90% of its foreign trade.
Chen Shih-min analyzed that Kim Jong-un may feel concerned or even dissatisfied due to Beijing’s influence. Since coming to power in 2012, Kim Jong-un has been believed to continuously work towards reducing North Korea’s dependence on China.
“Kim Jong-un only met Xi Jinping in 2018 after a gap of 7 years during which their relationship was not very close. Moreover, in 2014, Xi Jinping visited South Korea for state affairs before meeting Kim Jong-un, which made Kim Jong-un very dissatisfied.”
In response to Pyongyang’s continuous nuclear tests and missile launches, Beijing’s stance has been delicate. In 2016, Beijing supported the UN Security Council’s sanctions against North Korea and participated in their implementation. At that time, North Korea also restricted the issuance of entry permits to Chinese nationals. The two countries distanced themselves in 2016-2017 but resumed close cooperation after 2018. Prior to meeting U.S. President Trump, Kim Jong-un held several meetings with Xi Jinping, who made his first visit to North Korea in June 2019.
After the leaders of South Korea, Japan, and China agreed on a joint declaration at the summit on May 27th, containing the term “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” North Korea launched a military reconnaissance satellite in opposition that same evening.
Chen Shih-min stated that the U.S. consistently hopes to stop North Korea’s nuclear development through China’s influence, leading Kim Jong-un to perceive a misalignment of interests between China and North Korea. Following the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, Russia has been actively improving its relationship with North Korea as it needs North Korea’s stockpile of ammunition and weapons, with a significant amount of weapons being transported from North Korea to Russia. In return, Russia must provide resources to North Korea, such as advanced technology and petroleum.
“North Korea has some subtle nuances in its relationship with China, but this does not mean a severe rupture; it’s just a minor episode.”
According to the “Chosun Ilbo” report, North Korea has been working to prevent its residents from being influenced by the “Korean Wave” (Hallyu), and recently extended these controls to the “Chinese Wave.” Reports suggest that North Korean authorities have tightened control over Chinese nationals, with recent restrictions on Chinese nationals leaving their residential areas and North Korean residents’ access to Chinese households. There are rumors that “in recent months, North Korea has forbidden residents and military personnel from watching Chinese movies,” and there have been instances of confiscating USB drives containing Chinese movies.
Chen Shih-min stated that Chinese nationals in North Korea are individuals who have frequent contact with the outside world, and Kim Jong-un may see them as a significant loophole in controlling North Korean society. North Korean citizens are exposed to Western culture through South Korean dramas, while Chinese dramas, from communist China, avoid political issues but still represent a level of acceptance of Western cultural trends, which is why North Korea restricts access to them.