On Friday (September 27), in the afternoon, the ruling party in Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), held a leadership election with nine candidates vying to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The new prime minister is expected to be elected around 3:40 pm on the same day.
Prime Minister Kishida had previously stated he would not seek re-election, taking responsibility for political funding issues within the LDP factions. Kishida’s term as prime minister is set to end at the end of September.
In this election, the nine candidates are expected to compete, and in the first round of voting, it is likely that no candidate will receive over half of the votes, leading to a runoff between the top two candidates.
The candidates, in order of registration, include high-ranking officials such as Economic and Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, former Economic and Security Minister Takashi Kobayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, Foreign Minister Yoko Kato, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, Digital Minister Taro Kono, former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, and current Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai.
The top three candidates out of the nine, including Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi, are seen as frontrunners to enter the runoff to compete for the prime minister position.
Ishiba, aged 67, a former banker, is a defense policy expert who has proposed establishing an Asian version of NATO military alliance and a more equal Japan-US security alliance. He is a supporter of democracy in Taiwan and has advocated for establishing a disaster management organization for one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world.
He vows to promote diversity and gender equality, supporting amendments to allow married couples to choose their surnames and also backing same-sex marriage. Ishiba is known for his defense policies and calls for a more robust approach to regional security issues.
As for Takaichi, aged 63, the current Minister of Economic Security, this is her second bid for the position of Japan’s prime minister. She is a staunch conservative and a protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, articulating her priorities on food security, supply chains, and military capabilities to bolster Japan’s resilience against natural disasters and security risks.
Aiming to enhance cybersecurity and space defense, Takaichi has proposed the establishment of a cabinet-level intelligence agency. She believes economic growth is more critical than fiscal discipline and pledges to make it a key policy pillar.
Furthermore, her visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial war shrine, and her advocacy for a tougher stance against the Chinese Communist Party have drawn attention.
Takaichi opposes same-sex marriage and proposals to allow married women to retain their maiden names, supporting instead the male inheritance system in the imperial family. Critics argue that her backing of traditional patriarchal norms hinders women’s advancement in society.
Koizumi, aged 43, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, has been considered a potential candidate for the prime minister position since his election as a legislator in 2009. Known for his lineage, Koizumi has been popular but faces criticism for lacking policy depth.
He advocates for reforms to provide more options for careers and lifestyles, supporting extended paternity leave and allowing married couples the choice of using double surnames. His proposal to relax labor dismissal rules to enhance labor market flexibility has sparked controversy for perceived lack of protection for workers’ rights.
Koizumi stresses strengthening the Japan-US alliance, expanding cooperation with like-minded allies to counter China’s growing influence, and regularly visits the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which is viewed negatively by Japan’s Asian neighbors due to its association with Japan’s militaristic past.
The party’s parliamentary members will cast their votes on Friday afternoon at the party headquarters. In addition to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, with 368 votes from parliamentary members, the party will tally an equal number of votes from party members and supporters (distributed proportionally), totaling 736 votes for the candidates to compete for.
Over 1.05 million party members and supporters nationwide have already voted by mail or other means before Thursday. Prefectural councils will begin counting the votes on Friday morning, with results expected to be announced around 2:20 pm.
If no candidate secures a majority of valid votes in the first round, the top two candidates, likely Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi, may proceed to a runoff.
The runoff will have a total of 415 votes, including 368 votes from parliamentary members and 47 from party members and supporters. The winner of the runoff will be determined by a majority vote.
The elected candidate will hold a press conference at the party headquarters at 6:00 pm on Friday. Subsequently, the new leader will appoint party officials, including the Secretary-General, and is expected to officially assume the role of prime minister following the nomination at a special session of the Diet on October 1. The new cabinet is anticipated to be formed on the same day.