In the latest poll for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election in Japan, rising political star Shinjiro Koizumi has temporarily taken the lead, with veteran politician Shigeru Ishiba in second place, and conservative senior member Sanae Takaichi in third. The survey indicates that the Japanese people hope for Japan to continue maintaining its tradition of conservative politics.
Following Fumio Kishida’s announcement on August 14 that he will not run for the next party presidency and the election management committee held by the LDP on August 20, the battle for the next presidency officially kicked off with over a dozen lawmakers expressing interest in the position.
On August 26, Japan’s Sankei Shimbun released a joint survey conducted with Fuji News Network (FNN), allowing respondents to select among 12 candidates who would be suitable to serve as the next LDP president. The results show that former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi ranked first with a support rate of 22.4%, followed by Shigeru Ishiba at 21.6%. Sanae Takaichi came in third with 10.8% support, followed by Taro Kono at 7.7%, Yoko Kamikawa at 4.2%, and Takayuki Kobayashi at 3.6%.
Regarding Fumio Kishida’s announcement not to run for re-election, 85% of respondents considered it “appropriate.” The LDP’s approval rating stands at 33.0%, increasing by 7.9% compared to the previous poll. 52.6% of respondents hope for the next House of Representatives to maintain the coalition government led by the LDP and Komeito, reflecting a 13.3% increase from the previous poll. On the other hand, 36.8% prefer a change in government, a decrease of 9.2% from the previous poll, as in the past four months, there was a higher preference for a change in government.
When asked about which policy issues they would like to discuss in the LDP presidential election, the majority answered with “high prices, wage increase, and economic measures” at 59.7%. 35.9% selected “pensions, healthcare, nursing care,” 29.3% chose “children, childcare support,” and 25.7% selected “political and financial issues.”
Regarding the question of “when should the House of Representatives be dissolved for a general election,” 47.1% of respondents chose “within the year,” an increase of 2.7% from the previous survey. 27.2% selected “before the end of next October’s term for House of Representatives,” a decrease of 3.3%, and 20.0% chose “earlier next year,” a decrease of 1.5%.
Moreover, the data on the “LDP support base” from the Sankei Shimbun survey showed Shinjiro Koizumi with a support rate of 29.4%, Ishiba with 23.0%, and Takaichi with 15.3%.
These survey results are considered to be close to the opinions of LDP members and supporters, potentially influencing the votes of parliamentarians in the party’s presidential election in September.
In previous polls, Ishiba had a slightly higher approval rating than Koizumi. Regarding the latest public opinion survey results, Ishiba stated that the outcome will be determined a month later.
On August 25, the Asahi Shimbun also released a public opinion poll on “who is suitable to serve as the next LDP president.” The survey divided respondents into two groups: LDP supporters and those not aligned with the LDP.
Based on the number of votes, the rankings are as follows (based on “overall” with additional “LDP supporters”): 1. Koizumi (21% overall; 28% LDP supporters); 2. Ishiba (21% overall; 23% LDP supporters); 3. Takaichi (8% overall; 5% LDP supporters); 4. Kono (6% overall; 8% LDP supporters); 5. Kamikawa (6% overall; 7% LDP supporters); 6. Kobayashi (5% overall; 5% LDP supporters).
Apart from the above six candidates, Toshimitsu Motegi received 2% overall support, Takayuki Kobayashi, Seiko Noda, and Katsunobu Kato each received 1% overall support. Additionally, aside from the ten mentioned candidates, 22% of respondents selected other candidates.
The survey results from two major Japanese media outlets show the top six candidates have the same ranking. However, it is expected that the final contenders will come from the top three. The surveys also indicate that the Japanese public prefers to maintain the current conservative politics rather than a change of government.
Shinjiro Koizumi, who topped this poll, was born in 1981 and is currently 43 years old. He hails from a political family background and is the son of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. In 2006, Koizumi earned a master’s degree in political science from Columbia University in the United States. He then worked as a part-time researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies under the Tavistock Institute of Human Relations in London. In 2007, he returned to Japan to serve as his father’s private secretary. Koizumi has held various key positions, including Environment Minister and LDP House of Representatives Security Committee Chair. He will officially announce his candidacy for the next presidency on August 30. This is his first bid for the presidency.
In April last year, Koizumi expressed in a parliamentary session that Japan should strengthen its defense capabilities to counter the threat of China. He stated that China has transitioned from ‘single-party dictatorship’ to ‘individual dictatorship.’ Koizumi advocates for holding Japan-China summit talks on various issues and urges responsible actions from China.
Back in September 2013, as the chairman of the LDP Youth Division and a member of the House of Representatives, Koizumi led a group of 97 youth division executives, including 33 parliamentarians and local councilors, on a visit to Taiwan. He noted the longstanding relationship between the LDP Youth Division and Taiwan, expressing gratitude for the substantial support Japan received from the Taiwanese people after the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Koizumi also supports amending the Japanese constitution to explicitly include the Self-Defense Forces in Article 9. He advocates for enhancing Japan’s defense capabilities.
Shinjiro Koizumi and Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi are considered traditional conservatives in Japan. Koizumi visits the Yasukuni Shrine annually, and Takaichi made a similar visit on August 15 this year. It is suggested by Japanese media that the Chinese Communist Party would least prefer their election.
Born in 1957, Shigeru Ishiba is 67 years old and a veteran Japanese politician who has served in various key roles, including Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, LDP Chief of Party Affairs, and Secretary-General. He is known as a political expert and a rare political commentator. On August 24, Ishiba officially announced his candidacy for the next LDP presidency in his hometown of Tottori Prefecture. This marks his fifth challenge for the party presidency.
He considers this the culmination of his 38-year political career and views it as his final battle. Before Ishiba’s official announcement, former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi declared his candidacy, becoming the second candidate to do so. While Ishiba enjoys strong support from local LDP members and allies, his criticisms of his own party have led to relatively lower support among lawmakers.
On August 13, Ishiba led a bipartisan group of Japanese parliamentarians on a visit to Taiwan and during a meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen, he remarked that today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia. He emphasized that only by leveraging the might of the democratic camp could regional peace and stability be maintained.
Ishiba, having previously served as Minister of Defense, has good insights into international military affairs. He has long emphasized a “strength for peace” approach to enhance Japan’s defense capabilities. With the devaluation of the yen leading to a reduction in the established defense budget, he proposes a revision of the five-year defense budget starting from 2023. He also advocates for the removal of Article 9, Clause 2 of the Constitution to clarify Japan’s possession of armed forces. In July 2022, during his visit to Taiwan, he discussed with President Tsai the need for both sides to have a shared understanding of the legal and operational actions of the military in response to emergencies to deter the Chinese Communist Party.
Furthermore, the third-ranking Minister of Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, is also considered a tough conservative. In a live broadcast on BS Television on August 25, she stated that she was diligently preparing for her candidacy.
Books reflecting Takaichi’s political ideas and policies are set to be released on August 30. She emphasizes that due to significant changes in the international landscape in recent years, Japan needs to strengthen its “comprehensive national power.” She believes aspects like diplomatic capability, defense capability, economic capability, and human resources capability are essential components of “national power.” She calls for strict vigilance against excessive reliance on others and the immediate increase in defense spending to enhance Japan’s independent defense capabilities.
Previously, the LDP had multiple factions, and in many cases, factions acted collectively to support candidates in leadership elections. However, due to scandals involving secret funds generated by faction activities, most factions dissolved or reorganized (with the exception of the Aso faction). Consequently, the factional constraints of the past may not influence the current presidential election, allowing each lawmaker to recommend and vote for the president independently.
With factional restrictions loosened and Fumio Kishida’s announcement not to compete for the next presidency, an increased number of candidates, including current cabinet members, have thrown their hats into the ring. As more candidates enter the fray, the hurdle of obtaining 20 nominating persons among the limited 367 legislators increases. Moreover, nominators also need to consider the potential embarrassment if their recommended candidate loses, leading several lawmakers to be cautious and closely monitor the election trends.
One noteworthy focus is on how many individuals will ultimately become the final candidates. While 11 lawmakers have announced or expressed interest in running, LDP executives suggest that the field may narrow down to five or six candidates. Engaging in vigorous debates with multiple candidates could help restore the LDP’s reputation, as asserted by some views.
In the scenario of multiple candidates, votes are likely to be dispersed, possibly resulting in no candidate securing a majority in the first round of voting, necessitating a showdown in the second round. Considering this, each camp will likely include the prospect of a second-round vote in their election strategies.
The 27th President of the LDP, Fumio Kishida’s three-year term will conclude at the end of September, with the election for the 28th President scheduled for September 27.