After enduring four days of intrusion by a Chinese military reconnaissance aircraft (Y-9) into its airspace, Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced the defense budget for the fiscal year 2025 on August 30. The following day, a Chinese naval survey ship once again violated Japanese territorial waters, prompting Japan to issue a strong protest. In response to the escalating threat from China and in alignment with public opinion in Japan, the government is planning to further increase defense spending to enhance its defense capabilities and deterrence.
On August 30, Japan’s Ministry of Defense unveiled the defense budget proposal for the fiscal year 2025, requesting a total amount of 8.5389 trillion yen (approximately $59 billion), marking a 10.5% increase from the initial budget for the fiscal year 2024, reaching a historical high.
Following the publication of the budget proposal, on August 31, a Chinese navy survey vessel once again intruded into Japanese territorial waters in the sea off the southwest of Kyushu Island in Kagoshima. The Japanese Ministry of Defense expressed strong concerns and lodged a protest through diplomatic channels.
The Japanese government believes that this action by the Chinese military is aimed at gathering data in the waters near Kagoshima Prefecture’s Kuchinoerabujima and the Pacific Ocean, potentially for deploying submarines into the Pacific to threaten U.S. naval vessels. According to the Joint Staff of the Ministry of Defense, including this incident, Japan has issued a total of 13 notifications of Chinese military vessels intruding into Japanese territorial waters, with 11 occurrences in the waters near Kuchinoerabu. Since November 2021, these activities by the Chinese navy have become more prominent.
Facing the increasing military threats from China, Russia, and North Korea, Japan is striving to accelerate its defense buildup.
Defense Minister Minoru Kihara stated after the announcement of the fiscal year 2025 defense budget that in order to further strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities and deterrence, it is crucial to diligently and rapidly implement necessary projects.
According to the “Outline of Defense Capability Enhancement and Budget Request for 2025” released by the Japanese Ministry of Defense, 2025 marks the third year of adjustments to Japan’s defense capabilities. As part of the plan to fundamentally enhance defense capability during the planning period, the budget request has been increased, focusing on advancing in seven main areas:
1. Regional outer defense capability;
2. Integrated air defense and missile defense capability;
3. Unmanned assets defense capability;
4. Cross-domain operational capabilities (space, cyber, land, sea);
5. Command and control, intelligence-related functions;
6. Mobile deployment capability, civil protection;
7. Sustainability, resilience (ammunition, maintenance, and facility resilience).
In the fiscal year 2025 budget proposal, 790 billion yen (approximately $6.7 billion) is allocated for developing and procuring long-range missiles and their launch equipment to strengthen “counterstrike capabilities,” including for Aegis destroyer. “Regional outer defense capabilities” will see the early deployment of enhanced Type 12 anti-ship missiles, acquisition of Tomahawk missiles, and implementation of operational training and related tests.
Regarding Japan’s defense “counterstrike capabilities,” the Japanese government stipulates in the “National Defense Strategy” that in the event of an enemy using ballistic missiles to launch an attack on Japan, the Self-Defense Forces can take the minimum necessary self-defense measures to prevent such attacks from occurring, potentially targeting enemy territories.
Empowering the Self-Defense Forces to utilize “counterstrike capabilities” when necessary marks a significant shift in Japan’s post-war defense principles.
The “Integrated air defense and missile defense capabilities” include completing the basic design of Aegis system vessels and accelerating detailed designs; signing agreements with the U.S. for joint development of the GPI project, among others.
The Japanese Ministry of Defense plans to allocate 323 billion yen (approximately $2.2 billion) for strengthening missile detection through the star chain system. This system is expected to begin launching satellites in 2025 and be fully operational by 2028.
The Ministry of Defense will establish a new generation defense communications satellite network to enhance “cross-domain operational capabilities” and create a new Space Operations Squadron (tentative name) to carry out surveillance and response tasks in outer space.
In addition to enhancing capabilities in land, sea, and air domains, Japan’s Defense Ministry aims to ensure asymmetric warfare advantages through combinations of space, cyber, and electromagnetic waves. For this purpose, the fiscal year 2025 budget plans to allocate 597.4 billion yen (approximately $4.08 billion) to enhance space operational capabilities, including utilizing space for intelligence gathering.
Furthermore, approximately 1.1446 trillion yen (about $7.83 billion) will be allocated to strengthen traditional land, sea, and air domain operational capabilities, while 907.2 billion yen (about $6.2 billion) is expected to be allocated for enhancing command and control, intelligence-related functions.
To address the gradual reduction in the Self-Defense Forces’ size, the Japanese Ministry of Defense is focusing on developing and acquiring more unmanned drones for surveillance and combat purposes. The budget for this aspect for the fiscal year 2025 is 103 billion yen (about $7.1 billion). Additionally, 314 billion yen (approximately $2.17 billion) will be spent on building three new multipurpose destroyers. These ships will operate with over half the personnel reduction and require only 90 naval personnel.
The Defense Ministry will invest 18 billion yen (about $124 million) to introduce artificial intelligence surveillance systems at 40 Self-Defense Force bases across Japan, reducing up to 1,000 soldiers. Additionally, 4.3 billion yen (about $29.7 million) will be allocated for an automated supply storage project in Okinawa.
The budget report emphasizes that unmanned combat drones can perform missions for several hours, reduce casualties among combat personnel, and are seen as a “game-changer.” In the context of declining birth rates, aging population, and shortages in Self-Defense Force personnel, combat drones are considered a pillar of Japan’s military construction in modern warfare environments.
In 2023, the Self-Defense Forces aimed to recruit 19,598 officers but only managed to enlist 9,959 individuals. This severe situation is exacerbated by factors such as declining birth rates, the high employment rate among Japanese university graduates (98.1%), leading to intense competition for talent. Currently, the Self-Defense Forces’ personnel number around 247,000, a figure that is unlikely to change in the coming years.
Addressing the personnel shortage faced by the Self-Defense Forces, Minister Kihara stated that the Ministry of Defense intends to strengthen the fundamental base of personnel by improving benefits, enhancing professional attractiveness, unit advancement, and utilizing external resources.
In recent years, with the abrupt changes in the international situation, China’s expansionist behavior in the Asia-Pacific region has been increasingly aggressive and manifesting a menacing posture.
The Japanese Ministry of Defense believes that amid extensive growth in defense spending, China is significantly enhancing its military capabilities, primarily focused on its navy, air force, nuclear arsenal, and missiles. Over the past 20 years, China’s military spending has increased by 7.9 times, while Japan’s defense spending has only grown by 1.6 times.
Chinese warships and other vessels continue to operate continuously in the East China Sea, especially near the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands), showing high activity. Chinese military aircraft, drones, submarines, aircraft carriers, among others, have also been increasingly active in the airspace around the Senkaku Islands and Okinawa Island.
The Chinese military is rapidly expanding and strengthening its military activities at sea and in the air, escalating unilateral actions. It appears that the Chinese military is planning to institutionalize its activities in the Sea of Japan, the Pacific Ocean, and around the Senkaku Islands. Furthermore, it is expected that their future activities in the Sea of Japan and the Pacific will see further expansion and heightened intensity.
A public opinion survey published by the Yomiuri Shimbun in April of this year revealed that 84% of Japanese people feel threatened by Japan’s security measures. Among them, 91% perceive the threat to come from China, representing a 5% increase from 86% in 2023.
72% of respondents support Japan’s strengthening of its defense capabilities; 50% of those surveyed expressed approval for the Japanese government’s revision of three documents, including the “National Security Strategy,” in December 2022 to fundamentally enhance Japan’s defense capabilities.
57% of respondents support the Self-Defense Forces possessing a “counterstrike capability” to destroy enemy missile launch bases. To bolster Japan’s defense capabilities, Japan aims to increase defense spending over five years starting from the 2023 fiscal year to approximately 43 trillion yen. Of the survey participants, 53% expressed support for the increase in defense spending.