Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare announced on Wednesday (June 5) that the total fertility rate in Japan for 2023 has dropped to 1.20, reaching a historic low.
By region, Tokyo’s fertility rate fell below 1.0 for the first time, dropping from 1.04 the previous year to 0.99, ranking the lowest among Japan’s 47 prefectures. The highest fertility rate was found in the southern Okinawa prefecture at 1.6, although this was lower than the previous year’s 1.7.
Nationwide, the number of births among Japanese citizens residing in Japan in 2023 was 727,277, a 5.6% decrease from the previous year. The natural population decrease, calculated by subtracting the number of births from the number of deaths, was 848,659, a 6.3% increase from the previous year. This declining trend has persisted for 17 years since 2007.
To calculate the total fertility rate, the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare adds the birth rates of women aged 15 to 49 within the country. In order to maintain the total population, the fertility rate needs to stay above 2.07. Japan’s fertility rate dropped below 2.07 in 1974, fifty years ago. It continued to decline, reaching a historic low of 1.26 in 2005. Though it slightly increased afterwards, by 2022 it dropped back to 1.26.
Japan’s total population peaked at 128.084 million in 2008 and has been decreasing since. In April 2023, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research under the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare released the latest “Population Prediction for Japan,” forecasting the trend of Japan’s decreasing population based on data.
According to the prediction, Japan’s population will decrease to 86.996 million by 2070 (a 32% decline from 2008) and further decrease to 49.733 million by 2120 (a 61% decline from 2008).
The population prediction paints a rather pessimistic picture of Japan’s future population. However, the actual demographic dynamics appear to be even more severe.
According to the statistics from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the total population of Japan in 2023 was 124.352 million, which is 56,000 less than the predicted 124.408 million. The population of Japanese citizens was 170,000 less than predicted, while the population of foreign residents was 114,000 more than predicted.
The introduction of the “Specified Skilled Worker” residency status in April 2019 has led to a rapid increase in the number of foreign laborers working in Japan in recent years, reaching 138,518 in October 2023, accounting for 6.8% of the total foreign population.
The future population prediction shows that the number of foreign residents will increase from 2.747 million in 2020 (2.2% of the total population) to 9.39 million in 2070 (10.8% of the total population). However, even with the increase in foreign residents, the overall population decline trend cannot be avoided.
The Japanese government is expanding support for families with dependent children in an effort to curb the declining birth rate. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida established the Ministry for Children and Families in April last year to oversee policies related to children.
On Tuesday (4th), the Japanese Diet passed an amendment to strengthen economic support for childcare families, including expanding child allowances and reducing economic burdens related to childbirth and higher education.
In order to ensure financial resources, the Japanese government plans to collect a “childcare support fee” from the public and businesses, with phased implementation starting from the 2026 fiscal year.