Japan held a general election for the House of Representatives on Sunday (October 27). Exit polls indicate that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will not be able to secure a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. This would be a significant blow for Prime Minister Shozo Ishiba. The coalition government with Komeito Party also faces uncertainties on whether they can secure more than half of the seats.
This election will see various parties vying for the 465 seats in the House of Representatives, with a total of 1,344 candidates registered to run.
Exit polls from Kyodo News and NHK indicate that the LDP will not be able to secure a majority of seats in the House of Representatives on its own.
According to NHK’s exit poll, the LDP is expected to win between 153 to 219 seats, significantly lower than the 247 seats they previously held, while Komeito Party is predicted to win between 21 to 35 seats.
Shozo Ishiba’s goal is for the LDP and Komeito Party to secure a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. In other words, the two parties combined need to secure at least 233 seats.
The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), is expected to win between 128 to 191 seats. This outcome may force the LDP or CDPJ to enter into power-sharing agreements with other parties in order to form a coalition government.
Ishiba, who took office on October 1, succeeding Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister, immediately called for an early election in the hope of garnering more support with his image as a candid reformist.
A survey by a Japanese television network shows that the ruling coalition is projected to win 198 seats, while the CDPJ is expected to secure 157 seats, both falling short of the 233 seats needed for a majority.
Regardless of the election outcome, cooperation with smaller parties such as the Democratic Party for the People or the Japan Innovation Party might be crucial in forming a new government. According to NHK’s exit poll, the Democratic Party for the People is forecasted to win between 20 to 33 seats, while the Japan Innovation Party is expected to secure between 28 to 45 seats. However, the policies proposed by these parties are at odds with the LDP’s direction.