Before the People’s Republic of China (PRC) invades Taiwan, it would first instigate internal anti-government groups in Taiwan and deploy hidden spies to carry out terrorist attacks and interfere in protest activities, commonly known as the “Fifth Column,” to disrupt Taiwan’s internal order. At that critical moment, issuing accurate information for the public to believe becomes extremely important.
According to the report by the Central News Agency, former Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force Lieutenant General Hiroki Yamashita stated this on the 15th afternoon during a share session for his new book “Full Simulation of the Taiwan Invasion War.” The event was packed with people interested in issues related to the Taiwan Strait situation.
The book, based on war gaming documents from Japanese parliamentarians, meticulously analyzes key moments, fierce battles, and potential outcomes of a Chinese Communist invasion of Taiwan. It also describes how the Chinese Communist Party would instigate internal anti-government groups in Taiwan and plant spies within the military and businesses to systematically carry out terrorist attacks and intervene in protest activities, also known as the “Fifth Column,” with the aim of disrupting Taiwan’s internal order.
Addressing the potential terrorist attacks by the PRC before invading Taiwan, Hiroki Yamashita pointed out that while Taiwan can prepare and take precautions, it is impossible to completely prevent such actions. Even the United States and Japan cannot fully guard against them. The purpose of these terrorist actions is to shake the confidence of the Taiwanese people and spread confusion, making it crucial for the government to issue accurate information to the public in a timely manner.
The book also quotes former Director of Security of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association, Kanzo Watanabe, who outlined the PRC’s timetable for unification with Taiwan. According to the book, between 2022 and 2035, the PRC’s nuclear deterrence capability is not yet sufficient, so it would adopt a peaceful unification approach. However, between 2035 and 2050, the PRC’s nuclear deterrence capability would have grown to be comparable to that of the United States, and thus it would use traditional military forces like fighter jets and warships to invade Taiwan.
Hiroki Yamashita emphasized the importance of collective security for Japan and other relevant countries like the US, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and Taiwan. However, due to Japan’s constitution, the Self-Defense Forces have more passive roles in their operations. For deepening military exchanges with Taiwan, a legal framework similar to the US’ Taiwan Relations Act is necessary.
He believes that if Japan were to enact a law similar to the Taiwan Relations Act at a political level, military exchanges between Japan and Taiwan would accelerate. There are also voices within Japan advocating for military exchanges with Taiwan.
However, Hiroki Yamashita also pointed out that the historical resistance of the Taiwanese military toward Japan due to past conflicts may impact the willingness for military exchanges with the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, posing another factor that needs consideration. He mentioned a former defense minister who reportedly harbored a dislike for Japan.
Regarding the issue of evacuating Japanese nationals in the event of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Hiroki Yamashita mentioned that according to statistics from the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are approximately 20,000 Japanese nationals in Taiwan and 100,000 in China. If the situation changes, Japanese nationals would likely start returning to Japan gradually.
When asked about whether Taiwanese citizens could seek refuge in Japan, Hiroki Yamashita believed that if Taiwanese people sought refuge in places like Okinawa by ship, Japan, based on humanitarian grounds, should accept them. However, Japan is also planning for Okinawa residents in the event of conflicts in the Taiwan Strait to evacuate to Kyushu, so when Taiwanese people seek refuge in Okinawa during such times, there may not be residents available.
Hiroki Yamashita wore badges of the flags of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and Japan during the event. He mentioned that his father was born in 1918 and attended the University of East Asia Tongwen College in Shanghai, China. He later fought in the Sino-Japanese War as part of the Japanese military, surrendered to the Kuomintang after the war, and fought alongside the Nationalist forces against Communist advances.
Additionally, Hiroki Yamashita candidly shared that the scene of the Republic of China leaving the United Nations during his childhood left a lasting impression on him.