Hello everyone, welcome to “News Perspective”, I’m Li Xin.
Today’s focus: First time in 70 years! Japanese Self-Defense Forces “incidentally” cross the Taiwan Strait, conduct naval exercises in the South China Sea with Australia and New Zealand warships; China conceals sinking of latest nuclear submarine exposed by the United States! Rising unemployment rate among Chinese youth, Beijing introduces series of emergency policies, experts are not optimistic!
Let’s first focus on the military news from China.
Senior U.S. defense officials revealed through The Wall Street Journal and CNN that China’s latest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in May at a shipyard in Wuhan. The Chinese military is suspected of hiding related information and has not disclosed it publicly. Experts suggest that due to the accident occurring before deployment, the likelihood of radiation leakage is low.
According to The Wall Street Journal on the 26th, China’s newest cutting-edge nuclear-powered submarine sank at the end of May to early June. Several U.S. government sources disclosed that the Chinese military and local authorities concealed the sinking incident and did not make it public. While the specifics of the sinking are unclear, this incident appears to have dealt a significant blow to Xi Jinping’s plans to strengthen the navy.
The report stated that the first ship of the “Week” class attack nuclear submarine sank. The ship underwent final preparations for departure at a shipyard along the Yangtze River in Hubei province at the end of May before presumably sinking. Satellite images from early June show a large crane arriving on the scene to salvage the submerged submarine from the riverbed.
The U.S. government is unsure whether the submarine was carrying nuclear fuel at the time of sinking, but experts believe the likelihood is high. Additionally, the U.S. government has not confirmed whether Chinese authorities inspected for radiation contamination or casualties.
U.S. defense officials who disclosed the message emphasized that China’s attempt to conceal the sinking of the latest nuclear-powered attack submarine is not surprising. Officials believe that besides revealing China’s equipment quality issues, this incident also exposes more serious problems, namely longstanding corruption plaguing China’s defense industry.
According to a report released by the U.S. Department of Defense in October last year, China currently possesses 6 ballistic missile submarines, 6 attack-type nuclear submarines, and 48 conventional-powered submarines.
Although the submarine has been salvaged, it may take several months to be operable at sea. This incident is undoubtedly a significant setback for China’s efforts to modernize its navy. Currently, China boasts the world’s largest navy, including many relatively small vessels such as frigates and light escort ships.
Meanwhile, the United States and the United Kingdom are working to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. This move will increase the number of countries with advanced underwater vessels.
Beijing has consistently criticized the trilateral security cooperation between the U.S., Australia, and the UK. Under this partnership, the three countries jointly develop advanced operational capabilities, seen as a strategic response to Beijing’s ambitions in the Pacific region.
On Wednesday, Japanese, Australian, and New Zealand warships traversed the Taiwan Strait on the same day.
According to Japanese media reports on Thursday, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer “Sazanami” crossed the Taiwan Strait from the East China Sea on Wednesday morning, sailing from north to south for over ten hours. This marked the first time in 70 years since the establishment of the Self-Defense Forces.
Later on the same Wednesday afternoon, the Australian destroyer “HMAS Sydney” and the New Zealand replenishment ship “HMNZS Aotearoa” also crossed the Taiwan Strait together. The New Zealand Navy stated that this was their first operational action in 7 years, aimed at upholding freedom of navigation.
These three countries can be said to have banded together, shored each other up, and dealt a slap in the face to the CCP together. For Japan, crossing the Taiwan Strait for the first time in 70 years is like having your ten-year-old child killed for no reason and not receiving an apology, so they have to toughen up. For Australia and New Zealand, when missiles are launched at their doorstep, they also have to make a statement. Originally, these countries were considered soft targets by the CCP, but now they are standing up and speaking out. Of course, the CCP cannot afford to lose face in this situation.
On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian expressed strong dissatisfaction to Japan during a routine press conference. Lin Jian also issued warnings regarding the actions of the Australian and New Zealand warships crossing the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also expressed “serious concerns” to Japan and stated that they have “handled it in accordance with the law and regulations.” On the same day, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army dispatched 43 military aircraft and 8 warships to conduct operations around the Taiwan Strait, referring to the actions as “legitimate and reasonable.”
On Thursday, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand navies conducted joint exercises in the South China Sea. Japanese warships “en route” through the Taiwan Strait to the South China Sea.
Recent military incidents between China and Japan have been frequent: in July, a Japanese destroyer “Suzutsuki” entered Chinese territorial waters off the coast of Zhejiang during a Chinese military exercise; in August, a Chinese Y-9 intelligence collection aircraft flew into the waters near Nagasaki, Japan; last week, the Chinese aircraft carrier “Liaoning” sailed 24 nautical miles off the coast of Japan’s Yonaguni Island, confirming the first time China’s aircraft carrier has sailed in the adjacent zone; two days ago, 8 ships in a joint Chinese-Russian fleet passed through Japan’s Soya Strait.
This time point happens to be the final days of the Kishida government, with the LDP presidential election on the 27th and the nomination election in parliament on October 1st to select the new prime minister. Over two years ago, when Fumio Kishida was elected as party president and became prime minister, he said he would speak and act upon China-Japan relations. However, it was not until this past Wednesday that Kishida made the significant decision to sail through the Taiwan Strait.
Taipei Zhongshan University professor Guo Yuren told Radio Free Asia that Kishida’s decision is a demonstration for the next prime minister. Currently, only Italy has not sent warships through the Taiwan Strait among the G7 countries, with the UK, the U.S., France, Canada, and Germany already doing so.
Even more crucially, Japan is the first country in East Asia to do so. “Japan must assume the responsibility of a regional power. With this demonstration effect, it is very likely that the next country to send warships through the Taiwan Strait will be South Korea.”
Guo Yuren said, “It is almost certain that a qualitative change will occur in China-Japan relations. Previously, Japan tried to avoid touching certain taboos in China, such as the Taiwan issue, which was considered off-limits. The international community continues to emphasize that the Taiwan Strait is international waters, and Japan’s action aligns it directly with the international community, challenging China’s political and military taboos.”
The youth unemployment rate in China is soaring, with the authorities issuing 24 opinions touted as “promoting high-quality and full employment,” proposing to “continuously promote the effective improvement in the quality and reasonable growth in the quantity of employment.” However, analysts believe that China’s policies are self-contradictory and full of inconsistencies, with this new document serving more as a political slogan, attempting to maintain stability during the CCP’s 75th anniversary.
Recent data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows that the youth unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 rose to 18.8% in August, the highest level since the restoration of youth unemployment rate data release in January of this year.
The real unemployment rate for young people is definitely higher than 18.8%. There have been reports of falsification in universities, where graduates are falsely reported as employed to avoid not receiving graduation certificates, etc. The actual perceived youth unemployment rate is likely even higher than 18.8%.
In response, on Wednesday (25th), the Chinese authorities released the 24 opinions titled “Promoting High-Quality Full Employment.” Chinese human rights lawyer Wu Shaoping in the U.S. said that the CCP is genuinely concerned about social instability. If young students and graduates cannot find employment opportunities, their dissatisfaction will inevitably spill over into society. Many unemployed veterans have taken to defending their rights, with the issue of Chinese veteran rights advocacy existing for many years, including incidents where thousands of veterans surrounded the Central Military Commission’s Bayi Building. For the CCP, these are all problems that endanger its political stability. Therefore, they inevitably want to appease them by introducing these policies. But in the end, it’s all just playing word games, with no practical effect.
China analyst Wang He told The Epoch Times that the Chinese economy is currently in an abnormal state, with a severe unemployment situation despite an insufficient overall labor force.
He analyzed that China’s labor force (ages 16-59) peaked in 2012 and has been declining ever since. From 2020 to 2022, due to the pandemic, even according to official data, the population in this age group decreased by nearly 40 million. The pace of the decline in China’s labor force far lags behind the speed of China’s economic downturn.
Moreover, China’s policies often contradict themselves and are filled with internal conflicts. For instance, due to pressures from the deficit in the social security fund, authorities are pushing for delayed retirement. This contradicts the goal of solving the unemployment problem. On one hand, the social security fund faces significant losses as income fails to cover expenses, and the CCP is unwilling to invest to cover these deficits. On the other hand, it’s estimated that over 80% of medical and social security benefits are taken by those within the system, leaving a severe shortage for the broader population.
The CCP is simultaneously delaying retirement for middle-aged and elderly individuals while hoping for more people to work. However, with economic recession, the number of available jobs in society is decreasing. Faced with this highly contradictory situation, the CCP hopes that the masses will self-sacrifice and solve the problem themselves.
The official “opinions” state that they will “encourage young people to engage in employment and entrepreneurship in key sectors, key industries, grassroots urban and rural areas, and small and micro-enterprises. Places with conditions can increase policy support for college graduates employed in small and micro-enterprises located in county towns.”
These points sound like empty slogans. The CCP is heavily promoting so-called new productive forces, such as AI, artificial intelligence, high-tech industries, and autonomous driving, which aim to replace human labor with robotics. So where does the encouragement for employment come in?
The CCP document proposes that it will “ensure that there is no risk of mass unemployment,” but analysts believe that mass unemployment has long since arrived, with official figures just covering it up.
Wu Shaoping, the U.S.-based human rights lawyer, told The Epoch Times that the CCP has always played word games, and this “opinion” is full of clichés, offering no concrete assistance for youth employment. Local governments themselves are facing financial deficits, so where will the money come from for training them? From where will the funds for social security come from? It’s all just playing word games, with no practical effect.
On the same day that the CCP issued the “employment opinions,” the CCP Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance jointly announced that they would provide one-time living allowances to impoverished individuals, orphans, and other vulnerable groups to ensure they receive it by October 1st.
The CCP is rushing to create an atmosphere of handing out money like this ahead of its 75th anniversary to shift social contradictions, ease tensions, and pacify the public.
Ye Yaoyuan, professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in the United States: “This is because the Communist Party controls some of the disadvantaged people. There are many voices of opposition, so they had to implement this policy.”
Internet writer Li Mianying: “Its domestic pressure has reached the boiling point and is about to explode. It is now using this method to relieve pressure. By giving the common people a little money, they won’t rebel, which is their goal.”
In fact, the CCP is also preparing in advance for the devaluation of the currency and inflation caused by its unanchored printing of money. The normal economic machinery is no longer running smoothly, and the CCP’s finances can only be sustained by printing money out of thin air. Printing money dilutes the savings of the people, requiring each citizen to pay for the CCP’s debts, ultimately leading to people rising up in rebellion. What can be done? They first give a little bit of money to the lower-class people to maintain their livelihood. But they don’t say how much will be distributed, or if they will distribute more in the future? Keeping you hopeful so that you don’t cause trouble. However, even after the bureaucratic vampires of the CCP strip everything down, how much of the subsidy will actually reach the people’s hands? Thank you for watching today’s “News Perspective”. I’m Li Xin, and we’ll see you next week.
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“News Perspective” Production Team