After the Chinese New Year, the price of pork has been continuously falling, while feed prices and disease prevention costs have been rising. Some breeders lamented, “It’s the off-season now, but prices have never been this low in previous years.”
Wang Yong (alias), a large-scale breeder in Qinglong County, Qiannan Prefecture, Guizhou Province, revealed to the Shanghai Media Group’s “Blue Whale News” that the current local price for Duroc pigs is only 13.5-14 yuan per kilogram. He said, “It’s the off-season now, but prices have never been this low in previous years.”
Another breeder also disclosed, “Selling now means making a loss, it’s better to wait and see.” Due to the continuous decline in pork prices recently, some breeders have decided to temporarily hold off on sales and wait for the market to improve.
Wang Yong mentioned that nearly 200 pigs on his farm have met the requirements for sale, but he has yet to contact slaughterhouses and distributors.
Choosing to “hold off” (delaying the sale of live pigs to wait for prices to rise) is also a desperate move. Wang Yong acknowledged that this decision also comes with risks. “Holding off means continuing to invest in feed costs every day, and there is a possibility of slaughterhouses reducing the price of heavier pigs.” He expressed that for now, they can only persevere and wait for market price changes.
According to “China Business News,” the weak demand and strong supply in the Chinese pork market have led to the continuous decline in live pig prices this year, especially since entering the off-season for pork consumption in July, resulting in further price drops due to sluggish demand.
Currently, the pork industry is in its sixth “pig cycle.” The situation of oversupply and weak demand for pork has not been effectively resolved, exacerbated by the off-season for pork consumption in the summer, leading to depressed pork prices. The sales revenue of listed pork companies in July has generally decreased by double digits year-on-year.
While live pig prices are declining, feed prices are on the rise. According to data released by the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center and Zhuochuang Information, as of August 13, 2025, the nationwide ratio of feed to pork was 5.26, a decrease of 1.31% from the previous period. Based on current prices and costs, each pig raised for fattening is estimated to incur a loss of 35.77 yuan. The monitoring data on August 21 revealed that the national average feed-to-pork ratio has dropped to below 6:1, triggering a Level 3 warning.
The feed-to-pork ratio is a key indicator for monitoring the profitability of pig breeding, reflecting the ratio between the selling price of live pigs and the average cost of feed. A higher ratio indicates better profitability for breeders, while a lower ratio suggests potential losses in the industry.
Despite the Chinese authorities’ measures to stabilize pork prices by purchasing and storing pork, Li Jing, a pork analyst at Shandong Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., told Blue Whale News that in the short term, the increased procurement of live pigs by state-owned enterprises will undoubtedly enhance the speed of pork digestion, but storage at this stage may only have emotional effects. The fundamental factor that will drive a long-term adjustment in pork prices still lies in the supply-demand relationship in the live pig market.
Furthermore, industry insiders believe that the pig breeding market is continuously consolidating towards leading enterprises, which may lead to the exit of small and medium-sized breeders from the market in the future.