Last Saturday (April 13th), Israel vowed retaliation after being attacked by hundreds of missiles and drones from Iran. This could potentially escalate the longstanding “shadow war” between the two countries in the Middle East into a more direct conflict.
Israeli officials have not disclosed the manner or timing of their potential attack. However, as calls from around the world urge Israel to exercise restraint, the threat of multi-front warfare is escalating, and Israel’s direct attack on Iranian territory would clearly have significant repercussions.
Iran stated that it launched the recent assault in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in Syria on April 1, which resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals. Iran also claims that if Israel were to launch any counterattacks on its territory, it would respond more forcefully.
The United States is urging Israel to show restraint and has informed Israeli leaders that the U.S. will not participate in any attacks against Iran to prevent the escalation of hostilities.
The Israeli War Cabinet has been in discussions over the past two days about the next course of action. Here are some key factors they need to consider when making their decision:
Last Saturday night, Israel, along with the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Jordan, successfully coordinated an air defense operation, temporarily gaining international support and sympathy for Israel. Prior to this, Israel had been increasingly isolated by the international community due to civilian casualties in the Gaza conflict.
With the assistance of an international partner coalition, Israel effectively defended itself over the weekend, intercepting 99% of Iranian missiles and drones, resulting in minimal losses, with only a 7-year-old girl being injured.
The U.S. Central Command led this coalition in the air defense operation, closely collaborating with Israel and moderate Arab countries, forming a united front against Iran.
Saudi Arabia, a regional powerhouse without formal diplomatic relations with Israel, also seems to have provided assistance. Israeli maps show that many Iranian missiles flying over Saudi airspace were intercepted.
Israel also utilized the airspace of other Arab countries in the region during the interception of missiles and drones, indicating that it had obtained permission from these neighboring nations beforehand.
However, this tacit support from Arab countries does not necessarily mean they will assist Israel in retaliating against Iran. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, stated that if Israel acts unilaterally, it would be a risky venture.
He said, “If Israel refrains from launching a large-scale retaliatory attack, it can gain plenty of commendation. But if it does launch an attack, it would lose a lot of that praise.”
Launching a large-scale retaliatory strike on Iranian soil could potentially trigger a full-scale regional war, so any response must be carefully considered.
Directly targeting Iranian territory would almost certainly result in brutal retaliation and could prompt further attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon. This Iranian-backed organization possesses a much more significant arsenal than Hamas but has shown hesitance in launching a full-scale war thus far.
Engaging in direct conflict with Iran would further deplete Israel’s military strength, shift its focus away from Gaza, and hinder the country’s already war-burdened economic development.
The Israeli military is far more powerful than other militaries in the region, possessing a range of high-tech weapons, including the ability to launch long-range ammunition from F-35 fighter jets. Experts suggest that this primarily Jewish state has the capability to directly target Iran or its proxies in the region.
Fabian Hinz, a weapons expert and researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in the UK, stated that the Iranian air force is “simply not comparable.”
However, Hinz also noted that many of Iran’s missile bases and nuclear facilities are deep underground, making them challenging to hit. Israel may also need consent from Gulf Arab states to use their airspace—a situation that is far from guaranteed.
【This article is based on reporting from The Associated Press】