Israel on Friday (September 27) launched airstrikes on Hezbollah headquarters in Lebanon, killing Hezbollah’s top leader Hassan Nasrallah. Many experts believe that the Arab region does not truly like Hezbollah, so Nasrallah’s demise is not viewed as a loss by them.
Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death on Saturday (28th), and his passing is expected to escalate tensions in the already volatile Middle East. On Saturday, Israeli forces conducted further airstrikes on Dahiyeh in the southern suburbs of Beirut and other areas in Lebanon. Hezbollah continued cross-border rocket attacks on Israel, prompting Israeli residents to seek shelter.
Experts from various countries shared their opinions on the future developments in interviews with Reuters.
Rosemary Kelanic, Director of the Middle East Program at the US Defense Priorities, stated, “Israel’s airstrike in Lebanon resulting in the death of Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, will not fundamentally alter the course of this conflict.” She pointed out that targeting terrorist leaders has seldom led to the disintegration of an organization.
Kelanic emphasized that killing Nasrallah does not equate to a conclusive Israeli victory in this conflict. She also noted that Nasrallah’s death does not alter anything for the US but could complicate American efforts to mediate ceasefire talks between Israel and Hezbollah.
“Washington has no direct national security interest in this conflict. It should distance itself more from the troubles in the region, rather than attempting to manage it through weapon deployments and military presence,” added Kelanic.
Mehran Kamrava, a government professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, expressed that the Arab region is both concerned and somewhat relieved by the news. He emphasized that no conservative Arab country particularly favors Hezbollah, especially amid concerns that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s war expansion actions may succeed. Therefore, Nasrallah’s removal brings a sense of relief to some people.
“From Iran’s perspective, even in the face of this worst-case scenario, they are unlikely to take action. Tehran adheres to a principle of ‘strategic patience’ and is committed to prolonged warfare. I believe this principle will persist, and they are unwilling to engage in direct conflict with Israel in any way,” supplemented Kamrava.
Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi analyst studying Gulf countries’ relations with Israel, echoed Kamrava’s sentiments, mentioning that Saudi Arabia does not harbor friendship with Hezbollah and views them as highly destructive in the region. Despite this, Saudi Arabia is rational in contemplating the implications of Nasrallah’s demise and possible opportunities it may bring.
“The reality is, time will reveal everything… These are incredible developments that are unfolding. We are witnessing things that we never thought would happen before,” commented Alghashian.
Abdullah Baabood, Chair of Islamic Area Studies at Waseda University in Japan, and a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, raised doubts about Iran’s response to Nasrallah’s death, highlighting that Iran has not directly retaliated even after enduring more evident attacks on its territory.
“I doubt Iran will take action at any cost to avoid it. They understand Netanyahu’s intentions to involve them and provoke a possible open conflict or war between them and the US,” said Baabood.
Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center mentioned that Nasrallah’s death could signify significant changes, as he served as the glue holding together the vast Hezbollah organization.
“It essentially depends on how the organization internally transitions. It could possibly face a downfall, falling into unknown hands. The situation remains uncertain, but as an organization, its reputation, military capability, and leadership have greatly declined. I believe their ability to rise again has significantly weakened,” Ali concluded.