In the midst of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russian President Putin visited China seeking support. However, Chinese leader Xi Jinping emphasized a “non-alignment” stance. Experts analyze that Beijing is walking a tightrope between Russia and Europe, being cautioned that supporting Putin could lead to “destroying the Great Wall”.
Putin arrived in Beijing on Thursday (16th) for a two-day state visit. Xi Jinping welcomed Putin in front of the Great Hall of the People in the morning, followed by talks between the two leaders, signing and issuing a Joint Statement on Deepening the New Era Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between China and Russia on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.
According to CCTV, Xi Jinping stated that the discussions were fruitful, and both sides will continue to deepen political mutual trust based on the principles of “non-alignment, non-confrontation, and not targeting third parties”.
The Kremlin highlighted the meeting. The Kremlin’s press service announced that the two leaders extensively discussed all issues regarding the comprehensive strategic partnership and outlined the key directions for further developing practical cooperation between Russia and China, exchanging views on the most urgent international and regional issues.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to expand its offensive towards Ukraine. According to Agence France-Presse, based on data from the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, Russian forces have reportedly seized 278 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the past week, marking their largest gain in a year and a half.
Putin urgently needs support from China in various aspects, including weapons and strategic supplies. With ongoing sanctions from the US and Europe, Russia has severed its economic ties with Europe.
Professor Gu Xuewu from Bonn University of Political Science and International Relations analyzed for Deutsche Welle, stating, “Putin is trying hard to promote the image of China and Russia as all-weather strategic partners with an unbreakable relationship, attempting to verify the Western notion of China and Russia as the axis.”
Putin has recently replaced the Minister of Defense, and Gu Xuewu believes, “The current challenge for the Russian side in planning the next steps (regarding Ukraine) military operation is significant. This difficulty was inadvertently revealed when appointing a new Minister of Defense, indicating that the Russian military needs robust support for wartime economy and logistics supply during a comprehensive breakthrough on all fronts.”
China has been reportedly aiding the Russian military-industrial complex. According to a list released by the US in April this year, by 2023, 90% of chips imported by Russia are from China, used in the production of missiles, tanks, and aircraft. In the last quarter of last year, 70% of machine tools imported by Russia were from China, and “possibly used for” missile production.
However, Gu Xuewu stated, “Beijing is making another move, emphasizing that the China-Russia partnership is not a military alliance relationship…”
In the joint statement issued on Thursday, compared to two years ago, the phrase “there is no end to friendly relations between the two countries, and there are no restricted areas for cooperation” is no longer mentioned. Xi Jinping emphasized during the press conference, “Continuing to uphold the principle of non-alignment, non-confrontation, and not targeting third parties.”
The White House stated during a press conference on Thursday that the Biden administration did not see any new content in the China-Russia joint statement.
From the images released, Putin did not appear to have a smile upon his arrival in Beijing; he often looked serious. Political commentator Zhong Yuan analyzed in Epoch Times that Putin may not have achieved the expected outcomes of the visit. The joint statement should have disappointed Putin. The 75th anniversary of China-Russia (Soviet Union) diplomatic relations did not exude celebration, revealing the true nature of the relationship between the two countries.
Assistant researcher Zhong Zidong from the Taiwan Institute of National Defense Security previously told Epoch Times that Beijing has a two-faced strategy – on one hand, it aims to strengthen the China-Russia relationship to counter the encirclement of the US and Europe, but on the other hand, it is unwilling to worsen relations with Western countries like the US and Europe due to its ties with Russia, potentially facing sanctions as a result. The possibility of a “no limits” strategic alliance, in reality, does not see a possibility of a military alliance.
The US and Europe have repeatedly warned China not to support Russia. During Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China in April, he cautioned that Beijing shipping critical components for manufacturing military hardware to Moscow undoubtedly adds fuel to the fire of the Ukraine conflict, and if China does not stop, the US will take action.
Last week, Xi Jinping completed visits to three European countries, including France. French President Macron emphasized respect for international law and its norms in his statement, demanding Beijing to ensure it does not support Russia. According to Agence France-Presse, Xi Jinping turned a deaf ear to the request.
The US and Europe are taking actions. On Tuesday (14th), Biden announced a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese imported products including steel, aluminum, semiconductors, batteries, essential minerals, solar panels, shipyard cranes, and medical products. Electric vehicle tariffs have increased fourfold.
The Biden administration will also announce on Friday to block imports from 26 Chinese textile companies, which are suspected of engaging in forced labor in the Xinjiang region.
The EU has also initiated investigations into some of China’s practices. On Friday, the EU official journal announced anti-dumping investigations into tin-plated or electrolytically coated flat rolled steel products from China; earlier investigations were launched into subsidies for Chinese electric vehicles, solar panel manufacturers, wind turbine manufacturers, and gaining public procurement contracts for medical equipment.
In reality, China greatly needs technology, investment, and markets from the US and Europe. Over the past thirty years, China’s economic rise heavily relied on the benefits of “globalization”; however, with the outbreak of the US-China trade war in 2018, global industrial chains reorganized, and foreign companies have been steadily leaving China.
The three-year pandemic has further exacerbated China’s economic challenges. With the real estate sector in continued decline, plummeting exports, sluggish domestic demand, high unemployment rates, capital flight, and a series of other issues, the Chinese Communist Party is under great pressure.
Gu Xuewu believes, “China’s economic interests are closely linked with various countries globally, especially Western countries. If China continues to increase its support for Russia, it would be self-destructive.”
Zhong Zidong also notes that China’s interactions with Russia are like walking a tightrope, requiring China to play both sides.
Regarding the Xi-Putin meeting, Gu Xuewu believes a major focus is on whether Putin will agree to a ceasefire during the Paris Olympics. He stated, “After Putin’s visit this time, Xi Jinping will definitely make a request, which is a ceasefire during the Olympics.”
Xi Jinping recently visited France and met with French President Macron. Chinese state media quoted Xi Jinping saying that China is willing to join France in proposing a global ceasefire during the Paris Olympics as an opportunity to stop all fighting.
Macron and Xi Jinping also mentioned this in the Sino-French declaration. Gu Xuewu remarked, “Putin must agree to Xi Jinping’s request; otherwise, it will be a huge blow to Xi Jinping, making it difficult for him to justify before the world.”
Gu Xuewu analyzed that Putin might give in to Xi Jinping’s demand due to needing China’s assistance, agreeing to a ceasefire during the Olympics. However, “if the China-Russia joint statement does not mention this, Xi Jinping would have failed. If it is mentioned, it shows Putin yielding to Xi Jinping.”
Paris and Beijing have called for a ceasefire during the Olympics, “If Putin does not comply with the ceasefire, the so-called China-Russia friendship will face a severe test. China (the CCP) cannot fully join sanctions against Russia amid various considerations, but can at least make some small, symbolic peace gestures to show sincerity. If even this is not accepted by Russia, the future is uncertain.”