The Irish Parliament will hold elections on November 29th, and the campaign is already in full swing. However, it may take several days, months, or even longer to determine who will ultimately take the position of Prime Minister.
Prime Minister Simon Harris announced the dissolution of the Parliament on November 9th. Shortly after, campaign posters appeared on the streets of Dublin. Politicians from across the country have begun canvassing and knocking on doors to understand voter intentions and introduce their governance ideas.
According to Irish regulations, elections must be held within 30 days of the dissolution of the Parliament. For over a hundred years, Ireland has been predominantly governed by the two center-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, taking turns in power. However, the 2020 election brought a three-way split. Fianna Fáil won the most seats with 38, but still far below the 80 seats needed to form a government. Sinn Féin, which had long been on the fringes, surged with 37 seats, even surpassing Fine Gael’s 35 seats.
To prevent Sinn Féin, known for its significant policy differences, from joining the government, Fianna Fáil set aside their differences and reached an agreement with Fine Gael to form a coalition with the environmentally-focused Green Party. The three parties agreed that Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil would first serve as Prime Minister, with former Prime Minister Leo Varadkar taking over at the end of 2022 until the term ends.
Unexpectedly, Varadkar resigned in March of this year, prompting an interim vote within Fine Gael. Harris seized the opportunity, conducting a swift campaign within 24 hours, successfully assuming the party leadership and Prime Minister position. At just 37 years old, he became the youngest Prime Minister in history, injecting new energy into the party. According to the latest poll in November, Fine Gael’s support has risen to 22%, overtaking Fianna Fáil’s 21%. Fine Gael hopes to leverage this momentum for re-election.
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil leader Martin, 64 years old, has been hitting the streets to engage with Dublin voters. The party has also released a series of videos on social media, with Martin explaining their governance principles on various issues from healthcare to housing and climate change.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has long aimed to become Ireland’s first female Prime Minister. Formerly the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, Sinn Féin has never entered the power center in over a hundred years. However, the party has seen a surge in popularity in recent years, leading multiple polls last October with over 30% support. Yet, a series of recent political mistakes and scandals, including allegations of child sexual abuse against a party communications officer, have tarnished Sinn Féin’s reputation, putting them at a disadvantage at the start of the election.
A recent poll by the Business Post showed a slight resurgence in support for the left-wing nationalist party in November, reaching 18%, still only half of its peak in 2022.
McDonald is focusing on attracting working-class voters, stating that voting for Sinn Féin is the “best” and only chance for laborers to change their circumstances. She emphasized that, “If you want to change the government, Sinn Féin is your choice.”
The issues influencing voter sentiment mainly revolve around two aspects.
Firstly, the housing crisis. Housing has been the most controversial issue under the current coalition government. The government’s current National Housing Plan aims to construct 33,000 new homes annually by 2030. Analysts and opposition parties criticize this target as too low. Due to housing shortages, property prices have remained high, rents have continued to rise, and in many areas, finding accommodation has become increasingly difficult.
Immigration is also a key issue in the election, as immigration numbers this year have reached the highest level in 17 years. A significant portion of this increase is due to the tens of thousands of Ukrainians seeking refuge since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out. Additionally, asylum applications in Ireland have reached record levels, with Dublin’s International Protection Office receiving 20,000 applications in the first 11 months of this year alone, a 50% increase from the previous year. The influx of refugees has exacerbated the housing crisis, with the number of homeless individuals reaching new highs in recent years.
Since the large-scale riots in Dublin last year, small-scale protests and demonstrations against illegal immigration have occurred nationwide. Currently, no party seems to have a clear advantage on this issue. A survey by the Business Post in the first week of November, which interviewed over 1,200 people, found that more than a quarter of respondents believed that no party had policies to solve the immigration problem.
The parliamentary elections are scheduled for Friday, November 29th, and voters will cast their ballots at local polling stations. Following British tradition, polling will take place from 7 am to 10 pm. Citizens who have reached the age of 18 are eligible to register and vote. British citizens residing in Ireland also have the right to vote. However, Irish citizens living abroad must return to the country to vote, with only a small exception for certain individuals such as diplomats and military personnel allowed to vote by mail.
Ireland does not use electronic voting but employs a system where voters fill out paper ballots, which are then manually sorted and counted. The counting process begins early the next morning after the voting day, with teams across the country sorting and counting the ballots under public supervision.
The counting process is intricate and requires multiple rounds. Each electoral district establishes a “winning threshold”, where a candidate reaching the minimum winning votes (quota) is deemed elected. After the first round of counting, if a candidate meets this threshold, they are declared elected. Any surplus votes received by the elected candidate will be transferred to other candidates in subsequent rounds. This process continues until all seats in the district are filled.
If no candidate reaches the winning threshold, the candidate with the lowest votes is eliminated, and their votes are sequentially transferred to other candidates. While this proportional voting system maximizes capturing public preferences and avoids the hassle of multiple elections, the final results may take several days or even months to be revealed.
The Irish election selects members of the lower house of the Parliament, the Dáil Éireann (with the Irish Senate holding limited power). This means that post-election results, MPs can begin forming coalitions and electing a Prime Minister.
After the Electoral Commission reviewed and adjusted constituencies last year, the parliament this year will consist of 174 MPs, 14 more than the previous parliament. Therefore, this year, a majority of 88 seats is required for forming a viable government.
In over 40 years, no party has gained over half of the parliament seats in elections, typically leading to coalitions between two or multiple parties. If parties are closely matched in votes, the government formation process could last for several months or even longer. The 2020 election, held in February, took four months of negotiations before a three-party agreement was reached. Once a coalition is established, the parliament can vote to elect the Prime Minister. In the unfortunate event of failed negotiations, Harris may have to dissolve the parliament once again.