On October 1st, Iran launched a missile saturation attack on Israel, firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles. The main targets of Iran’s missile strikes were the Mossad headquarters and three air force bases. Despite Iran’s claim of destroying 20 F-35 fighter jets, satellite images the next day showed that Iran’s assertion was entirely false. At the Nevatim Air Base where F-35 fighter jets were parked, there were no signs of direct missile hits, no craters, explosions, or traces of fires burning, except for a roof of a hangar that seemed to have been hit by missile debris, along with several traces of missile debris scattered around.
Moreover, one missile landed less than 1 kilometer away from the Mossad headquarters, creating a large crater. Another missile debris, resembling a rocket booster, fell on the west bank of the Jordan River, tragically killing a Palestinian man by sheer coincidence. He was the sole casualty of this Iran missile attack, leaving one to wonder about the sentiments of the Iranians and Palestinians involved in this incident.
Perhaps learning from the experience and lessons of the April attack, Iran, in this recent assault, only launched ballistic missiles and the so-called hypersonic missiles, refraining from using cruise missiles and suicide drones. During the April 13 attack, faced with joint interception from the United States, Israel, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, nearly all the subsonic cruise missiles and suicide drones Iran launched were shot down.
The hypersonic missile Iran claimed to have used this time is the Fateh-1 missile, debuted in June 2023. Iranian officials stated that Fateh-1 has a range of 1400 kilometers, a top speed of 13 to 15 Mach, a warhead payload of 1.5 tons, and a circular error probable of less than 30 meters. This range conveniently covers Israel, seemingly tailored for Israeli targets. However, skepticism arises when looking at the Fateh-1’s double-cone warhead and rugged spherical engine, raising doubts about the missile’s actual capability to fly at hypersonic speeds.
Regarding the strike’s effectiveness, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed, “90% of our missiles successfully hit Israeli targets,” and that “over 20 fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets were destroyed in Israel,” with videos circulating online showing Iranian missiles hitting the ground. However, U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan stated, “Iran’s attack on Israel appears to be ineffective.”
From satellite photos on the 2nd, none of these airbases showed direct missile impact traces. It is evident that Iran’s missiles were either intercepted or missed their targets. Israel also chose not to waste surface-to-air missiles, allowing those off-course missiles to explode upon impact with the ground.
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