Recently, Iran conducted airstrikes on Israel utilizing a mixed air raid mode employing drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Of particular concern is the widespread use of drones in the attacks, drawing attention from various quarters. Experts analyze that drones have a significant impact on the future battlefield and warfare patterns, especially concerning the Taiwan Strait.
On the night of April 13, Iran launched a sustained airstrike on Israel, deploying approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. The United States, Israel, and Jordan participated in the defense operation, intercepting 99% of the drones and missiles.
In Iran’s mixed airstrike mode, besides conventional cruise and ballistic missiles, a large number of drones were heavily utilized.
Military expert Li Zhengxiu from the Taiwan National Policy Foundation stated that drones represent a major breakthrough in warfare technology for various countries.
Since drones have been used in combat, they have proven effective not only in surveillance and detection but also in offensive capabilities. Equipped with ammunition, drones become a light weapon.
He believes that while Iran’s large-scale drone attacks on Israel may seem ineffective, the potential harm could be significant if a country develops a substantial drone fleet to target specific nations.
“The use of drones has a significant impact on the future battlefield and warfare patterns,” he stated.
Li Zhengxiu pointed out that much of the equipment used in Iran’s drone attacks, including missiles, originated directly or indirectly from mainland China, showcasing the country’s advanced drone technology elements and overall export strength.
If the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) makes new breakthroughs in drone technology, it could pose a threat to global peace and stability, especially in the Taiwan Strait, an aspect that Taiwan and the international community must understand and guard against.
In addition to Iran, Russia is experimenting with a new warfare strategy in the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, featuring large-scale drone attacks. The Russian military has repeatedly employed the Shahed-136 drones purchased from Iran to target various infrastructure in Ukraine.
On March 14, Russia launched large-scale drone attacks, targeting Ukraine’s communication and television infrastructure, leading to interruptions in TV and radio signals in parts of Sumy, northeastern Ukraine.
Prior to this, Ukraine had also used drones to attack the Russian Black Sea Fleet. US officials believe Ukraine has sunk 15 Russian ships in the past six months, with European officials noting a reopening of the western Black Sea due to victories at sea.
Taiwan’s senior military commentator Qi Leyi mentioned that the future warfare involving drones will require a significant quantity. This differs slightly from the precision operations conducted by the United States over the past two decades.
He stressed the importance of having a sufficient amount of missiles in aerial combat, whether in attack or defense situations. Qi Leyi emphasized the need for cost-effective, simple, and high-quantity unmanned combat systems, capable of deploying thousands or even millions of drones quickly.
Iran’s recent airstrikes featured the “Shahed” series of drones, with many of the parts and equipment sourced directly or indirectly from China, underscoring the country’s role in the global drone market.
The CCP possesses a vast number of drones, with routine drone activities directed towards Taiwan since September last year. As of April 18, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported intercepting a total of 18 instances involving CCP’s main and auxiliary aircraft and drones, with 12 instances crossing the median line and entering the southwestern airspace, coming as close as 82 nautical miles to Taichung.
Taiwan’s Strategic Assessment Association hosted a seminar on the CCP’s military drone threat against Taiwan. Association President Hu Zhenpu emphasized that CCP’s drone operations not only pose a military threat but also impact regional security. Drones offer characteristics such as low cost, zero casualties, and high operational efficiency, making them potential mainstay tactics in future military conflicts.
Ou Xifu, director of the CCP Political-Military and Operational Concepts Research Institute at Taiwan’s National Defense Academy, noted that the CCP possesses drones of varying ranges in large numbers. Even if only a few drones manage to evade interception, they could cause significant harm. Drones, carrying smaller bombs, rockets, or missiles, rely on quantity to disrupt defense systems.
He disclosed that the CCP’s drone forces mainly consist of the ASN series for the land army, BZK-005 reconnaissance drones and ASN-209 drones for the navy, GJ-1/Wing Loong-1 attack drones, Wing Loong-7 drones for the air force, and JWP-02 drones alongside the ASN series for the rocket force.
Regarding CCP’s drone attacks on Taiwan, current affairs commentator Shen Zhou believes that launching medium to large drones across the Taiwan Strait typically requires a runway. Preparing and deploying hundreds or even thousands of drones in advance exposes CCP’s operations. Launching during the day risks easy identification of launching personnel near the site, while launching at night lacks clear visibility of targets during the drone’s flight over the Taiwan Strait.
Iran’s use of missiles and drones in a mixed airstrike mode against Israel and Israel’s response to the attack have significant implications for the Taiwan Strait.
Qi Leyi stated that Iran’s ammunition usage was limited in the recent attacks on Israel, merely serving as a countermeasure with short duration. Israel’s anti-missile defense is robust due to years of development, unlike Taiwan, which has not faced interception challenges, especially in the context of saturation (large-scale) attacks.
“When an aggressor amasses a considerable amount of missiles and directs a saturation attack on specific key points of a defending party, it is genuinely challenging to defend against,” he explained. Taiwan needs to consider its air defense system under potential suppression during the initial onslaught, preparing to withstand heavy strikes.
Taiwan’s main combat methods closely resemble those of Israel, with the joint air defense missile system primarily provided by the United States. Taiwan possesses various missile systems such as the Patriot, Tien Chien 3, Hsiung Feng 2, Avenger, Sky Bow, Tien Kung, and Sky Sword for air defense on destroyers, frigates, and other naval vessels.
Shen Zhou’s analysis indicates that if the CCP conducts an assault on Taiwan, the scale of preparation would exceed that of Iran. The US military would likely detect and target CCP rocket operations promptly, with clear positioning. Iran’s missile launches were tracked by the US military before firing, highlighting the importance of early warnings and preparation to significantly improve interception rates of missiles and drones.
He added that it may be challenging for CCP’s missiles to penetrate the US military’s air defense network in the Indo-Pacific region.
During the recent Iran-Israel conflict, the US openly assisted Israel. President Biden stated, “To support Israel’s defense, the US military dispatched aircraft and ballistic missile defense destroyers to the region over the past week…We aided Israel in shooting down almost all incoming drones and missiles.”
Maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait, the US has been actively involved in recent developments. On April 2, Biden and Xi held discussions, with Biden emphasizing the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the rule of law and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
On April 8, National Security Advisor Sullivan confirmed the US policy to guarantee that “nothing happens to Taiwan.”
On April 10 and 11, Biden hosted the US-Japan Summit and the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral meeting at the White House, emphasizing the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, crucial elements for international security and prosperity.
Qi Leyi noted the shift of the US strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific, primarily targeting the CCP as its main adversary.
“The US, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia have gradually formed a multilateral defense mechanism against China (the CCP), which is evident,” he stated. This recent development presents China (the CCP) with a multilateral security framework to contend with, whereas China (the CCP) stands alone against this trend.
He further explained, “Although Taiwan is not directly involved, Taiwan-US relations have made significant progress compared to the past.”
Current affairs commentator Wang He believes that the US is strategically encompassing China, particularly concerning the Taiwan issue, to prevent Xi Jinping from following in Putin’s footsteps. Tripartite defense cooperation between the US, Japan, and the Philippines aids in curbing CCP’s provocative actions in the Taiwan Strait.