Apple’s latest iPhone 17 series, which was officially released on September 19, has sparked a fervent wave of upgrades with its largest new design in recent years, driving strong sales for Apple and injecting confidence into the upcoming holiday sales season.
The success of the iPhone 17 can be attributed to significant upgrades in cameras, displays, and batteries, coupled with trade-in offers that have attracted a large number of users to exchange their old devices. The extended waiting time for users indicates a surge in demand.
Analysts predict based on data from the financial data analysis and research platform Visible Alpha that Apple’s revenue from smart phones in the current fiscal year will increase by 4% to reach $209.3 billion, with a growth rate close to 5% in fiscal year 2026, projecting iPhone revenue to reach $218.9 billion.
According to the Financial Times, Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management said that the performance of the iPhone 17 has been “surprisingly strong,” exceeding Wall Street’s expectations at the end of August.
Munster also mentioned that the average wait time for the iPhone 17 is approximately 13% longer than that of the previous iPhone 16, with orders for the iPhone 17 being “much higher” than those for the iPhone 16 last year.
Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President of IDC, also noted, “Apple has shown very strong performance this quarter. I can’t remember the last time there were queues outside Apple stores like this year.”
US bank analysts observed that the shipping time for the iPhone 17 has notably extended compared to previous years, indicating strong demand.
Dan Ives, Chief Analyst at Wedbush, stated that demand for the iPhone 17 is 10% to 15% higher than that of the iPhone 16, with plans to increase production by about 20% in the Asian supply chain. The iPhone 17 Pro Max has become the most difficult model to acquire, with delivery times delayed by several weeks in multiple locations.
Regarding the upgrade wave, Ives believes that approximately 315 million iPhones have not been upgraded in the past four years, and the new design and upgrades of the iPhone 17 have fueled an unexpected surge in upgrades. He suggested that Wall Street’s previous prediction of 230 million units shipped in fiscal year 2026 was underestimated, and a more reasonable range would be 240 to 250 million units.
The newly launched iPhone 17 series includes four models: iPhone 17, iPhone Air, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max.
At retail, the iPhone 17 Pro Max is the most popular, the standard iPhone 17 has exceeded expectations in online sales, and the iPhone Air may be the “pleasant surprise” of this upgrade cycle.
Despite this success, market predictions for Apple and the iPhone 17 vary.
Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan have raised their target prices for Apple to $280 and $310 respectively due to strong demand for the iPhone 17 and prolonged waiting times.
Jefferies has downgraded its rating for Apple’s stock to “underperform” due to previously high expectations.
UBS remains cautious about the future of the iPhone 17, with concerns that the acceptance of the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max may not be as high as the same period last year, while the performance of the iPhone Air is comparable to the iPhone 16 Plus.
Apple’s stock reached a yearly high before and after the release of the iPhone 17, but recent market declines were influenced by President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on China.
Despite concerns in the market about rising costs due to tariffs, Apple has chosen to keep product prices unchanged. With iPhone sales accounting for more than half of Apple’s approximately $390 billion in annual revenue, the sales performance of the iPhone 17 products is expected to help the company address supply chain challenges resulting from trade tensions in 2025.
On October 30th, Apple will release its fourth-quarter financial report ending in September, including initial sales data for the iPhone 17, which the market eagerly anticipates.
Furthermore, there are market rumors suggesting that Apple may launch a foldable iPhone handset next year.