On September 14th, the housing purchase restriction policy in the Nansha District of Guangzhou was completely lifted, signaling a major shift in the real estate market in the area. Industry experts have pointed out that with the significant decline in property prices in the region, the restriction policy has been fully removed.
Several industry insiders confirmed to Caixin.com on September 14th that the Nansha District of Guangzhou had completely lifted the housing purchase restriction policy. Additionally, the Guangzhou Research and Development Department of Zhongyuan also released a policy interpretation on their official account.
Currently, in Guangzhou, areas such as Yuexiu, Haizhu, Liwan, Tianhe, and Baiyun, which are central districts of the city, still have the housing purchase restriction policy in place. Nansha, which just had its restriction policy lifted, belongs to the suburban area. Since Nansha became the sixth national new district in 2012 and a free trade zone by the end of 2014, it had been favored by investors during the bullish real estate market period, leading to a significant increase in property prices.
Data shows that the Diecuifeng community in the Nansha District is a benchmark property in the area. The price of this community was around 10,000 yuan per square meter when it opened in 2014, and it continued to rise, reaching a peak of 30,000 yuan per square meter by the end of 2020. In July 2021, a second-hand property in this community was sold for as high as 39,000 yuan per square meter. However, property prices then started to decline significantly. In July 2024, the transaction price of a second-hand property in this community was only 16,000 yuan per square meter, a drop of about 60% compared to three years ago.
The sharp decline in property prices has altered the real estate landscape. Liu Qi, the founder and chairman of Xingrongjishi Development Holdings Co., Ltd. in Guangdong Province, stated, “Investors have long been absent from the real estate market.”
According to Liu Qi’s interview with Caixin, as property prices continue to fall, investing in real estate has become a losing proposition, and no one expects prices to rebound in a short period.
Many real estate agents share the same perspective. They believe that current buyers are mostly end-users purchasing for self-occupation, and there are very few investors. Considering that investors have already retreated, the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy now has limited stimulative effects on the real estate market.
Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, believes that “In terms of effectiveness, the phased withdrawal of the purchase restriction policy from 2022 to 2023 could release some demand. With the current sluggish property market and stronger-than-expected price declines, the impact of lifting the purchase restriction policy on the real estate sector is minimal.”
Data from market research firm Ke Rui shows that in the first half of 2024, the transaction volume of new residential properties in Guangzhou was 3.19 million square meters, a 29% decrease year-on-year, reaching the lowest level in the same period for 15 years. The transaction volume of second-hand residential properties was 4.5841 million square meters, a 13% decrease year-on-year.
The notion that “real estate prices always go up” in first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) is now outdated. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the price of new homes in Guangzhou has been continuously declining for 15 consecutive months, while the price of second-hand homes has been falling for 16 consecutive months in comparison.