A recent survey predicts that due to the cooling global demand and increasing trade barriers, China’s export growth in August is expected to be the slowest in the past four months.
According to a Reuters survey, trade data set to be released on Tuesday (September 10) is expected to show that China’s exports in August increased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year, which is lower than July’s 7.0% growth. The survey gathered opinions from 34 economists.
The survey forecasts that China’s imports in August will increase by 2% compared to the same period last year, a significant drop from the 7.2% growth in July. The substantial growth in July compared to the previous year was driven by two factors: a low base last year and anticipation of technology restrictions by the United States causing companies to stockpile chips.
As a major indicator of China’s technology imports, South Korea’s exports to China slowed in August after reaching a 21-month high in July.
The potential soft data in August further exacerbates recent concerns about China’s economic indicators, indicating that China is facing challenges in regaining economic momentum after a sluggish start to the second half of the year.
China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August. Factory gate prices fell to the lowest level in 14 months.
Additionally, the slowdown in import growth highlights weak domestic demand in China, with the economy being weighed down by continued sluggishness in the real estate market and increasing job insecurity.
Analysts believe that with increased fiscal spending and resilient exports, China’s economy may see some growth recovery in the remaining months of this year.
However, significant risks persist, with escalating trade tensions and impending tariff hikes casting a shadow over China’s economic growth prospects.
Last month, Canada announced a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric cars. Prior to that, the United States and European Union had already announced similar measures.
In Asia, India’s Ministry of Steel is pushing for higher import tariffs on steel from countries including China, while Malaysia has initiated anti-dumping investigations on plastic products from China and Indonesia.
The think tank Oxford Economics stated in a recent report, “The peak of China’s export momentum may have passed.” The think tank also warned that as tariffs take effect, factors supporting prices may weaken.
According to Reuters’ survey, China’s trade surplus in August is expected to be $82.05 billion, slightly down from July’s $84.65 billion.