The General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong, passed away on July 19. On the same day, the Chinese Communist Party expressed condolences, and the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, personally visited the Vietnamese Embassy in China the following day to pay his respects. This highly publicized gesture has attracted attention. Dr. Wang Wenyue, Associate Professor and Department Head at the National Post – Asia Research Center at National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan, analyzed the impact of Nguyen Phu Trong’s death on Vietnam itself, as well as on Vietnam-China and Vietnam-US relations. The following is a summary of the interview.
Vietnam’s system was originally modeled after the Soviet Union and China. What changes have occurred compared to China’s system? Is Vietnam still a “socialist” country?
From an economic perspective, Vietnam has made significant adjustments towards a market economy since implementing reform policies in 1986. Foreign investment and private enterprises have become key drivers of Vietnam’s economic development. However, a large sector of state-owned enterprises still exists, drawing inspiration from China’s reform and opening-up policies.
In recent years, Vietnam has faced two main challenges in its transition away from socialism. The first is maintaining political stability, and the second is overcoming economic obstacles that may arise due to its development.
Politically, Vietnam, like China, must guard against potential Western interference in its socialist market reforms. The Communist Party of Vietnam has been emphasizing nationalism in order to maintain its legitimacy and control over the country. Economically, reforms in the private sector have led to inequalities in income distribution and discontent among the population, necessitating significant governmental reforms politically and economically.
Though Vietnam has not faced the same crises as China in terms of politics and economy, failure to continue political and economic reforms could lead to similar problems in the coming years.
Nguyen Phu Trong, the longest-serving and most powerful leader of Vietnam, had a significant impact on the country’s political and economic development. His legacy includes the “bamboo diplomacy,” which elevated Vietnam’s international status. Trong’s staunch Marxist-Leninist beliefs drove his efforts to strengthen ties with Western countries, including the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and India. Moreover, his administration’s anti-corruption campaign is expected to continue.
Trong’s successor lacks extensive diplomatic experience, which may result in the continuation of the current diplomatic path. The shift in leadership could potentially impact Vietnam’s future relations with China, the U.S., and other global actors.
The relationship between China, Vietnam, and the U.S. is complex and will likely continue to evolve. While Vietnamese society seems inclined towards the West, especially in Ho Chi Minh City, the decision-makers are predominantly Communist Party officials. Despite outward appearances, Vietnam’s foreign relations are carefully navigated to balance between Western and Chinese interests for the country’s benefit.