In recent conflicts between India and Pakistan, the Pakistan Air Force shot down Indian fighter jets, sparking discussions. Particularly, Chinese experts and pro-China media have been praising the J-10 fighter jet and PL-15 missile, while belittling the Indian Air Force. However, some interpretations of the events may be misleading.
On the night of May 7, 2025, Indian and Pakistani fighter jets confronted each other near the border, resulting in a partial beyond-visual-range air battle. Pakistan claimed to have shot down 5 Indian jets, including 3 Rafale fighters, 1 Su-30MKI, and 1 MiG-29. The Indian military acknowledged losses but stated that all pilots had returned safely. Reports from various media outlets suggested that at least 3 Indian jets, including at least 1 Rafale fighter, may have crashed.
There is limited coverage on whether Pakistani fighter jets were shot down, and the Indian military has not announced any such outcomes. Based on this assessment, it appears that in this confrontation and partial air battle, the Pakistan Air Force took the initiative and achieved results. The Indian Air Force seemed ill-prepared and ineffective on the spot, leading to aircraft losses. From the perspective of this partial air battle, Pakistan emerged victorious, while India faced defeat.
India deployed a large number of fighter jets primarily for airstrikes within Pakistani territory, which led to the aerial engagement. As per Pakistani military information, India had up to 70 jets in action, with a potential loss of up to 5. Even with these losses, at least 65 Indian jets were presumably unharmed, which should not significantly impact the airstrike mission.
According to the Indian military, despite suffering losses, they successfully completed the airborne strike mission. If we focus solely on the partial aerial conflict between the two sides, Pakistan achieved a victory but did not entirely thwart Indian jet airstrikes.
Pakistan claimed to have dispatched 42 “high-tech” fighter jets, yet most did not intercept or attack Indian aircraft, merely standing off without active participation in the air battle. Only a few jets launched aerial attacks in the region, claiming to have downed 5 Indian fighter jets.
Based on this evaluation, Pakistani jets likely fired at least 5 air-to-air missiles, with at least 3 hitting their targets; the other 2 missiles were lost, being detected by Indian forces. The actual participating jets in the air battle may have been even fewer if some had fired 2 missiles each.
During the hour-long standoff, most of Pakistan’s jets remained on standby or surveillance duties without engaging Indian aircraft or finding opportunities to attack them. From an overall perspective, while Pakistan achieved results in the partial air battle, they could not completely halt Indian Air Force airstrikes.
According to the Pakistani military’s explanation, the objective was to teach the Indian Air Force a lesson, which they deemed successful. If Pakistan had aimed to completely thwart Indian airstrikes with their 42 jets, they may not have met their objective, indicating no clear victory in the aerial confrontation.
In the confrontation, around 70 Indian jets likely primarily carried out ground strike missions. Some jets may have conducted escort duties or monitored Pakistani aircraft but did not receive commands to engage in cross-border attacks or find opportunities to do so.
In the event that Indian jets were shot down before receiving counterattack orders, or if they received such orders only post-loss, both scenarios would constitute a failure in the aerial battle. Following jet losses, if Indian planes were permitted to retaliate, but failed to engage due to various reasons, it would also be deemed an aerial failure. Despite suffering losses, the Indian Air Force reportedly accomplished the airstrike mission.
The interpretation of the scenario may have faced misconceptions, focusing heavily on aerial combat rather than the airstrikes, sidelining the pivotal role of airstrikes.
Apart from air combat and airstrikes, air forces are also responsible for a plethora of transport tasks, including swift deployment of forces to strategic locations and continuous resupply operations. Reconnaissance aircraft play a vital role in delivering real-time intel crucial for military planning and execution.
Airborne early warning systems facilitate early detection of enemy aircraft, allowing for better control of the overall battlefield situation. Electronic warfare aircraft likely played a role in this conflict, but the extent of their impact is yet to be fully revealed. Tanker aircraft did not seem to be involved in this aerial engagement. Both sides lacked large bomber aircraft, limiting the scale of airstrikes conducted by fighter or attack aircraft.
Radar systems are indispensable for air force operations; at times, certain air defense systems may fall under the jurisdiction of the air force. Satellite technology is increasingly employed to support air force operations, with Chinese satellites reportedly aiding Pakistan during this conflict.
Some analyses delved into the performance and training of Pakistani and Indian air forces but predominantly focused on aerial combat, leading to biased conclusions.
On May 17, the Chinese Central Television publicly stated that the J-10 fighter jet had a successful outing in the Indo-Pak conflict, alongside the PL-15 missile, elevating them in status. The J-10 fighter jet is considered one of the lower-tier fourth-generation fighters in the Chinese Air Force, with noticeable gaps compared to the J-11 and J-16/Su-30 variants. Despite this, the downing of Indian Rafale or Su-30 jets was regarded as a demonstration of superior performance, albeit with bias.
The J-10, a lightweight fighter, primarily operates in air defense and interception roles. Its limited combat range requires careful mission planning to execute strike missions effectively. While the J-10’s interception capabilities have been praised, it faces challenges in performing extensive strike roles due to fuel constraints and load limitations.
Since 2014, there have been at least 7 confirmed incidents of crashed J-10s reported by the media. Pakistan has procured 36 J-10CE fighters, with at least 20 deliveries made. In January 2024, Pakistani J-10CEs escorted Wing Loong II drones to conduct airstrikes against an armed group in Iranian territory. The May 7, 2025 Indo-Pak conflict marked the first combat deployment of J-10 fighters with missile launches.
The French-manufactured Rafale fighter is a medium-range multipurpose aircraft, boasting a more extensive operational range and payload capacity compared to the J-10. While the J-10 primarily focuses on defensive aerial combat, the Rafale has a broader spectrum of operational capabilities, suitable for both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions.
The critical aspect of the Indo-Pak aerial conflict likely revolved around the crucial role of airborne early warning aircraft. Following the launch of PL-15 missiles by multiple J-10 or JF-17s, they swiftly retreated from the battlefield, presumably guided by the early warning system for beyond-visual-range attacks. However, at least 2 missiles failed to hit their targets. Factors like ineffective missile guidance, rapid evasive actions by Indian jets, and limitations in radar-guided missiles may have contributed to these misses.
Indian jets may not have received timely counterattack orders, or upon receiving them, found Pakistani fighters out of range and refrained from risky pursuits, leading to ineffective execution of their aerial combat mission. In the subsequent days, Indian jets launched multiple airstrikes, targeting more Pakistani sites, including multiple airbases. There seemed to be no further interception efforts by the Pakistani Air Force, and no subsequent aerial battles occurred.
(To be continued)