When Congress is stuck and cannot pass bills, state legislatures across the United States are drafting and passing policies that affect millions of people. Currently, these legislatures are operating with less involvement from opposition parties or dissenting governors than ever before.
According to data from Ballotpedia as of October 21, 23 states in the U.S. have seen three consecutive wins for the Republican Party, while 17 states have had three consecutive wins for the Democratic Party. Additionally, 10 states have split governments where neither party has achieved three consecutive wins. Three consecutive wins mean a party secures the governorship along with the majority in both the state House and Senate.
According to data compiled by Stateside, a state and local government consulting firm, out of the 99 federal legislatures up for election in November, 57 have an absolute majority.
In summary, in 35 out of the 50 states, at least one chamber of the legislature has a party with an absolute majority.
However, in 14 states, the absolute majority margin is as slim as three seats or fewer. Michael Behm, the Co-CEO and Chief Advisor at Stateside, told the Epoch Times that organizations affiliated with the Democratic and Republican parties are heavily investing in local elections, which could determine whether they maintain their absolute majority in the upcoming legislative term.
Although voter interest in state-level legislative elections is lower compared to federal elections, experts interviewed by the Epoch Times highlighted its significance. Legislative actions affecting the public, such as on abortion, education, energy, healthcare, taxes, and transportation, mainly stem from state legislature decisions.
Behm said, “Because the federal government is highly polarized and constrained at the moment, action must be taken at the state level.”
The definition of an absolute majority varies among states, but typically, achieving an absolute majority means that a party in a state legislature has enough members to pass laws without minority party votes and to sustain enough votes to override a governor’s veto.
Heading into the 2024 elections, the Republican Party holds absolute majorities in both chambers of the legislatures in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Additionally, Republicans have absolute majorities in one chamber in Iowa, Mississippi, and South Carolina.
The Democratic Party maintains absolute majorities in both chambers of the legislatures in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island. Democrats also have an absolute majority in one chamber in Colorado, Connecticut, and Nevada.
Behm noted this to be the most instances of absolute majorities in state legislatures he has seen. He observed that the dominance of one party ideologically governing the legislatures reflects significant political polarization in these states.
Christopher Cooper, the Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University, mentioned that in divided governments, where one party controls the legislature and the governor belongs to the opposition, the absolute majority effectively limits the governor’s power to implement policy priorities.
Governors Laura Kelly of Kansas, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and Phil Scott of Vermont preside over divided state governments, with the opposition holding absolute majorities in the legislatures of these states.
The legislatures in these four states have stripped away much of the governors’ decision-making power. In June of this year, the Democratic-controlled Vermont legislature overturned six vetoes by Governor Scott in a veto session. Governor Scott commented to the media, “Power has gone to their heads.”
Cooper noted that in North Carolina, the absolute majority in the legislature has largely disregarded the governor’s wishes, and the governor already had limited influence under the state’s constitution.
In recent legislative sessions, Republicans, leveraging their absolute majority, passed new abortion restrictions, drafted new election laws, and further weakened the power of Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.
“They stripped away the governor’s appointment powers,” Cooper said. “They’ve made changes to make an already strong legislature even stronger.”
Behm highlighted the rise of absolute majorities in legislatures to the increased involvement of national party-affiliated organizations. These groups, known as “527 organizations” (established under IRS Section 527), are tax-exempt entities that can receive and spend unlimited funds to influence politics and elections at the federal, state, and local levels.
Behm pointed out that thirty years ago, state legislative elections were typically dominated and funded by local entities like chambers of commerce, unions, and other local political organizations. However, national groups like the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) and the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) now provide substantial resources to state legislative caucuses.
“Both party committees recruit candidates with professionals, organize partisan campaign activities at the state legislative level to gain majority seats,” Behm said. “These 527 organizations have turned state legislative elections into national-level contests.”
Cooper noted that Republicans began taking over state legislatures from 2010 onwards when they launched the “REDMAP project,” an initiative that involved pouring significant funds into previously overlooked state legislative elections to steer them towards the Republican Party.
“They did exactly what they said,” Cooper remarked. “They painted some areas red.”
In 2024, the Democratic Party only needs to win three more seats to secure an absolute majority in the legislatures of Colorado, Connecticut, New Mexico, and Nevada, while Republicans can win absolute majorities in one chamber of the Legislatures of Iowa and South Carolina with the same margin.
Gaining an absolute majority in legislatures would enable the Democratic Party to fully control the legislatures of Connecticut, Colorado, and Nevada, while Republicans could achieve similar advantages in Iowa and South Carolina.
Democrats retained an absolute majority in the Senate of New York by a one-seat margin, as did Republicans in the legislatures of Montana and North Carolina. The Delaware House requires only two more Democratic seats, and the Senate in Florida, Kansas, and Missouri requires two additional Republican seats to ensure an absolute majority.
Representatives from the RSLC and DLCC did not respond to requests for comment from the Epoch Times. However, these organizations regularly issue public memoranda detailing their plans for the upcoming elections.
In June, RSLC Chair Dee Duncan stated that the organization and its affiliate political action committees planned to spend $38 million to defend Republican majorities and supermajorities nationwide while undermining “Democratic strongholds.”
Duncan stated in the memorandum, “The biggest long-term threat to our party, without question, is Democrats potentially regaining control of the majority of state legislatures across the country for the first time since 2010.”
In the latest memo, DLCC requested more funds to support its candidates in state legislative elections.
The memo stated, “DLCC has set a goal budget of $60 million for 2023-2024, our largest budget to date, but we need more resources before November to fully support our community power-building efforts.”
DLCC Chair Heather Williams, on October 10th, stated, “Without a significant increase in financial support, collective Democratic efforts to win key state legislative elections could fall short.” The memo noted that with less than a month before the election day, DLCC still needed $26 million to achieve its goals.
The memo also pointed out that DLCC’s internal data suggested that Democrats might face a scenario similar to what occurred in 2020, where they barely clung to victory in federal elections but lost 100 state legislative seats and two legislative majorities. The memo highlighted a phenomenon known as ballot leakage, where Democratic voters tend to vote for federal electors but not directly for state and local candidates.
Williams stated in the memo, “Republicans have avoided the negative impact of ballot leakage over the past decade, affecting only 37% of elections, while in competitive elections, Democratic ballot leakage rates reach as high as 80%.”
Political observers in two crucial states, North Carolina and Nevada, expressed concerns similar to the DLCC regarding the upcoming state legislative elections. They noted that voters are inundated with information about federal elections but are relatively unaware of state legislative contests. Both North Carolina and Nevada face critical elections that will decide the future of their divided state governments.
In November, voters in North Carolina will elect a new governor and determine whether Republicans can maintain veto-proof majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
In Nevada, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, when the state legislature reconvenes in 2025, faces a Democratic absolute majority in both chambers. Democrats need to win just one Senate seat to override Lombardo’s vetoes.
John Tsarpalas, the Chairman of the Nevada Policy Research Institute, informed the Epoch Times that Lombardo issued a record number of vetoes during the 2023 legislative session. Tsarpalas noted that the governor also established a political action committee, raising $8 million for Republican legislative candidates.
Nevertheless, Tsarpalas mentioned the prevailing sentiment in Nevada indicated that Democrats were likely to achieve an absolute majority in the Senate. Republicans had control of the legislature until 2016, after which Democrats gained a majority but fell short of an absolute majority. Tsarpalas remarked that Democrats used their newfound power to redraw favorable district maps, stating that redistricting would help Democratic power in Nevada.
He predicted that if Democrats succeed in November, they would pursue a liberal policy agenda focusing on increasing revenues through taxes and mandatory fees. Democrats also promised subsidizing increased affordable housing, implementing rent control, and providing economic assistance for low-income Nevadans.
Cooper noted that polling in North Carolina shows Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein might prevail against Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson in the gubernatorial race. However, he noted that due to previous Republican efforts, the Democratic chances of winning a majority in North Carolina were “virtually nil.”
Cooper mentioned that the North Carolina legislature was historically controlled by Democrats for 100 years, originally consistent with much of the South’s solid Democratic support, reflecting the state’s politically diverse population. The tables turned in 2010, with Republicans winning a majority and then redistricting to solidify their control.
Donald Bryson, the CEO of the Raleigh-based John Locke Foundation, highlighted that Republicans only secured veto-proof majorities in both houses in 2023 when former Democratic State Representative Tricia Cotham switched parties.
Bryson noted that Governor Roy Cooper used a record number of vetoes to resist the Republican legislative agenda. During his tenure, the GOP pursued what Bryson described as the “most basic conservative agenda” of reducing taxes and expanding charter school access.
Both Bryson and Cooper refrained from predicting whether Republicans would maintain absolute majorities in both chambers of the legislature come November. Cooper emphasized that five elections would decide the fate of the state legislature.
Bryson remarked that winning an absolute majority would determine whether Republicans have to negotiate with Democratic governors to pass state budgets and other critical matters or set the agenda without obstruction.
—