The highest military commander in the United States Indo-Pacific region has issued a warning that the Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have become extremely frequent, and in the future, China may use this as a cover to launch an attack on Taiwan.
During his speech at the Honolulu Defense Forum, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, also warned about the escalating cooperation among China, Russia, and North Korea, referring to them as the “emerging authoritarian axis”.
At the event organized by the Pacific Forum think-tank, Paparo mentioned that the three countries have formed a “triangle of troublemakers” with increasing cooperation in various aspects such as “strategic bomber patrols deep into the U.S. Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)”, “shared anti-satellite capabilities”, and “from advanced submarine technology to space capabilities”.
In recent years, China has been conducting large-scale military exercises around Taiwan with increasing frequency and scale. Paparo has raised concerns about this trend. He believes that the distinction between large-scale military exercises and actual preparations for attack is becoming increasingly blurred.
“We are very close to this threshold where routine exercises become a cover for real military actions,” he said.
He added, “The aggressive military exercises being carried out around Taiwan are not mere ‘exercises’, they are rehearsals. They are rehearsing for the use of force to unify Taiwan.”
This strategy of using military exercises as a cover for attacks is similar to the actions taken by Russia before invading Ukraine. At that time, Russia conducted large-scale military exercises near the border, increasing the scale and frequency, making it difficult for outsiders to discern their true intentions. Russia claimed that these exercises were in response to NATO threats, but they actually provided cover for their invasion of Ukraine.
Highlighting the increased activities of Russia in the Indo-Pacific region, a U.S. military official mentioned that since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has deployed seven newly built submarines to the Indo-Pacific region, including three nuclear-powered submarines equipped with nuclear weapons, two nuclear-powered submarines carrying guided missiles, and two attack submarines.
Paparo expressed concerns about China’s growing military activities and emphasized the need for the U.S. to rapidly bridge critical gaps, increase Pentagon’s weapon stockpiles in the Indo-Pacific region, and prepare for potential conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.
“Our margin of error is getting smaller and smaller,” Paparo said. “Our adversaries see these gaps, and they are actively exploiting them.”
Paparo recently hosted an artificial intelligence summit and emphasized the need for the U.S. military to urgently procure and deploy various “unmanned systems”.
He stated that artificial intelligence will be a “key tool” to help the U.S. early warning of potential attacks against Taiwan.
Paparo urged for a significant increase in the production of autonomous systems and their deployment in disputed areas such as the Taiwan Strait to create a “hellscape” to deter or disrupt a possible Chinese invasion.
Paparo also warned that the U.S. needs to quickly reform its procurement system.
“It’s a fact that technology alone cannot win this battle,” he said. “We must also reform the defense bureaucracy with an unprecedented sense of urgency.”
(Partial reference from reports by the Financial Times)