In recent years, China’s foreign trade exports have surged by 33% while imports have stagnated, leading to concerns from other countries that trade with China is becoming a one-way street of exporting without importing. Analysts attribute this trend to weak consumption and the industrial support policies of the Chinese Communist Party, which have raised doubts about Xi Jinping’s “globalization” agenda being resisted by various countries.
The United States and China reached a preliminary framework agreement last week in London. President Trump wrote on social media that he would “closely cooperate with Xi Jinping to promote China’s openness to American trade.” However, the reality is that while China’s exports have significantly increased, imports remain stagnant.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, data from the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis shows that from the end of 2022 to the end of March this year, China’s foreign trade imports have not grown at all, while exports have surged by 33%.
Data from China’s customs authority also confirms this trend. In the first five months of 2025, the import value decreased by 3.8% compared to the same period last year, while in 2024 it increased by 2.3%, decreasing by 0.3% in 2023, and increasing by 4.3% in 2022.
On the other hand, exports for the first five months of 2025 and the years 2024, 2023, and 2022 have shown year-on-year growth of 7.2%, 7.1%, 0.6%, and 10.5% respectively. The minor growth in 2023 was due to the lockdown measures being lifted, while the significant growth in 2022 was attributed to the export of medical supplies due to the pandemic.
The sharp slowdown in China’s imports sharply contrasts with other developing economies in Asia, where imports increased by 11% from 2022 to the end of March this year, and the US saw a 36% increase in imports.
Analyses suggest that this imbalance is primarily a result of China’s industrial support policies which prioritize funding to manufacturing and high-tech sectors, while neglecting efforts to boost domestic consumption. Additionally, the end of the real estate boom has subdued China’s demand for commodities.
In fact, China has been actively purging American technology from its industries. Chinese companies are replacing foreign suppliers with domestic ones to localize their supply chains, a trend that was further accelerated during the initial phase of the US-China trade war. From key technologies like semiconductors and fighter jets to grain and oilseed production, China is striving for self-sufficiency to reduce reliance on the West in areas such as food, raw materials, and energy.
In September 2022, the State Council of China issued Document 79, requiring central and state-owned enterprises to achieve 100% domestic substitution of imported technologies by 2027, covering the entire industry chain from chips to operating systems to databases. This directive, known as “Dis-A,” aims to exclude American technology from China.
Companies like China Harzone Industry, which manufactures civilian and military emergency vehicles and equipment, have announced plans to heavily promote domestic alternatives for imported parts, citing the impact of US tariffs in a public announcement on April 8.
Since the end of 2022 to the end of May this year, China’s total imports from the US decreased by 11%, while imports from Japan and Germany fell by 17% and 18% respectively.
Major hardware manufacturers like Dell, IBM, and Cisco Systems have seen their equipment gradually replaced by products from Chinese competitors. Software companies like Microsoft and Oracle have also started losing their previous dominance.
As China’s real estate bubble bursts, the demand for commodities is slowing down. Countries like Brazil and South Africa, which used to continuously supply China with iron ore, copper, and energy during the real estate boom, are now seeing a decline in demand.
The import volume of major commodities like iron ore and coal has decreased in the first five months of this year compared to the same period last year. Iron ore imports dropped by 5.2%, and coal imports decreased by 7.9%. Imports of agricultural products like grain and meat decreased by 12.5%, while the import value of crude oil decreased by 11.4% despite a 0.3% increase in quantity. Additionally, natural gas imports decreased by 9.5%.
Consumer spending in China is also on the decline due to concerns about job prospects, income reduction, inadequate social security systems for retirement, healthcare, and education, coupled with shrinking wealth from falling housing prices, causing people to tighten their wallets.
Luxury brands like Swatch, Porsche, and LVMH have reported weak sales in China, reflecting the downward trend in spending among Chinese consumers.
During a French parliamentary hearing on May 28, the Deputy CEO of Louis Vuitton, Stephane Bianchi, mentioned that Chinese tourists’ outbound travel and shopping have decreased in the past three months.
In addition, China’s policies have been pushing out foreign suppliers. German medical technology company Drägerwerk reported a 50% year-on-year drop in sales of respiratory machines and other medical products in the Chinese market in 2024 due to the impact of China’s procurement policy favoring domestic products.
In a document jointly issued by the Chinese Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2021, known as “Document 551,” various medical equipment procurements by the government must meet specific domestic procurement ratios, ranging from 25% to 100%.
Reports indicate that public procurement expenditures by China’s state-owned sector exceeded RMB 48 trillion in 2022.
A spokesperson for Drägerwerk commented that the overall operating environment for foreign companies in China is challenging as the Chinese economy faces difficulties and competition intensifies, with Chinese competitors receiving preferential treatment in public tenders.
However, China’s actions have raised alarms and faced resistance from other countries. Since the end of 2022, over 250 anti-dumping and countervailing measures have been taken against China by some countries, including Vietnam, Turkey, India, and Brazil, aiming to curb the inflow of Chinese steel, aluminum foil, gloves, and other products.
Furthermore, the Financial Times reported that EU member states have voted to exclude Chinese companies from bidding on EU contracts valued over €5 million for the next five years, in a move to counter China’s market discrimination practices in that sector.
In January of this year, the EU pointed out that China’s policies are forcing domestic hospitals to choose local suppliers. An investigation found that 87% of tenders had “direct or indirect discrimination,” including the exclusion of imported medical equipment from bidding.
China’s industrial policies are exacerbating tensions with other countries, as they fear that trade with China is becoming increasingly one-sided. The resistance against a trade relationship perceived as “export-only” is growing among various nations.