Syria undergoes a dramatic change overnight, with the authoritarian rule of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime collapsing in a matter of days, leaving the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) without another “good friend.” Experts analyze the impact of Assad’s regime downfall on the CCP.
The Assad family had ruled Syria with an iron fist for over fifty years. In 2000, Bashar Al-Assad succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled Syria for nearly 30 years before his passing. In 2011, Syrian citizens expressed dissatisfaction with government corruption, high unemployment rates, and political rights suppression, sparking democratic protests that were brutally suppressed by the Assad regime and escalated into a prolonged civil war.
According to the United Nations, the Syrian civil war has resulted in over 300,000 civilian deaths and more than 100,000 people detained or missing. Recently, an opposition alliance led by “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)” and rebel factions launched a major offensive in northwest Syria.
The opposition swiftly captured Aleppo, the second-largest city in Syria, and then swept south towards the capital, Damascus, overwhelming government forces. On December 8th, the opposition entered Damascus, and crowds gathered in the streets to celebrate. Assad fled Syria and sought refuge in Russia.
Syria established formal diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China in 1956, becoming one of the earliest Arab countries to do so. In 1971, Syria supported the proposal to restore China’s seat at the United Nations, leading Beijing to consider it a “good friend.”
The CCP and Syria have maintained a friendly cooperative relationship in international affairs. Syria is one of China’s important trade partners and has received support from China on various international platforms. The two countries have also developed cooperation in infrastructure, energy, and other sectors.
Last year, Syrian President Assad met with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping in Hangzhou, where they announced the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and Syria.
Associate Professor Chen Shimin from the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University stated on December 9th that both Assad and his father ruled Syria with high-pressure dictatorship, leading to escalating discontent among the people. This discontent triggered the Syrian people to resist during the “Arab Spring,” which eventually led to the Syrian civil war.
Chen noted that Syria had support from Russia and Iran, with China being a significant supporter behind Iran and Russia. Therefore, the toppling of the Assad regime signifies a significant decline in China’s influence in the Middle East. The CCP had maintained close ties with the Assad government and even supplied missiles, making the current situation in Syria unfavorable for China.
“Chinese people have limited access to media from the free world. The sight of masses in Damascus cheering and celebrating the downfall of Assad’s authoritarian regime could unsettle the CCP. However, mainland Chinese may not see this due to the strict media and internet control exerted by the CCP,” Chen expressed.
However, some individuals manage to learn about global developments through certain channels. They witness an unpopular authoritarian regime being rejected by the people, inspiring resistance against such oppressive rule. The current discontent within China is evident, and the CCP’s authoritarian rule is increasingly losing favor. Chen believes that an unpopular dictatorship will eventually be overthrown by awakened Chinese citizens.
Senior Researcher and Director of the Institute of National Security Studies at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies, Shen Mingshi, highlighted that the fall of a regime after decades of authoritarian rule would naturally bring joy to mainland Chinese netizens who hope for a similar event in China.
Shen noted the presence of rebel forces in Syria contrasting with China’s lack thereof. The CCP controls the main national armed forces like the People’s Armed Police and the military under a tight grip.
Shen pointed out that if power struggles within the CCP trigger military involvement, leading to defections within the army, the Communist Party would be overthrown. A significant issue within the CCP’s rule could spark uprising or revolution among the people, or enlightened individuals within the military could challenge the CCP’s totalitarian rule.
Xi Jinping, the CCP’s top leader, displays heightened insecurity and fears potential replacements. Shen emphasized the necessity of the awakening of the people to overthrow the authoritarian CCP regime.
He further explained that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in numerous Chinese fatalities, economic chaos, internal disarray, and diplomatic setbacks, diminishing the CCP’s legitimacy. People could voice their demands amidst these circumstances.
As Syria undergoes an “overnight transformation,” mainland netizens analyze that China is the “biggest loser” in the downfall of the Assad regime since China had cooperation with Syria in the Belt and Road Initiative, losing an “important ally” due to Syria’s transformation.