The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Taiwan’s economic growth rate will reach 2.9% this year, which is a 0.2 percentage point increase from the 2.7% estimate made in October last year. This growth outperforms Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore. The report also predicts that Taiwan’s annual consumer price inflation rate for this year will be 1.8%, significantly lower than the global average of 4.3%.
The IMF released its Spring World Economic Outlook report for 2025 today. The report highlights significant policy shifts that are reshaping the global trade system and triggering uncertainty, once again testing the resilience of the global economy. Since February, the United States has announced multiple rounds of tariff measures against its trading partners, and some countries have retaliated.
The report mentions that the US announced tariffs on nearly all trading partners on the 2nd day of the month, leading to a sharp decline in major stock indices and a surge in bond yields. Market stability was only partially restored after the announcement of a temporary suspension of some measures.
The report indicates that uncertainty, especially regarding trade policies, has escalated to unprecedented levels. In the short term, the IMF predicts a global economic growth rate of 2.8% this year and 3% next year, which are 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points lower than the January forecast, respectively.
Regarding Taiwan, the report states that the country’s economic growth rate reached 4.3% in 2024, and it is estimated to be 2.9% and 2.5% for this year and the next, respectively. The forecasted economic growth rate for this year has been revised up by 0.2 percentage points compared to the Autumn report in October last year.
According to the report, Taiwan’s consumer price inflation rate was 2.2% last year, and it is forecasted to decrease to 1.8% this year. Compared to the global average of 4.3%, Taiwan’s inflationary pressure is significantly lower. The consumer price inflation rate is estimated to further decrease to 1.6% next year. In terms of unemployment rate, it is projected that Taiwan will maintain a level of 3.4% this year and next.
In terms of other major Asian countries, the report predicts that Japan’s economic growth rate for this year and the next will be 0.6%, with consumer price inflation rates of 2.4% and 1.7% respectively. China’s economic growth rate is expected to remain at 4.0% for this year and the next, with consumer price inflation rates of 0.0% and 0.6% respectively.
Among the Four Asian Tigers, the report estimates that South Korea’s economic growth rates for this year and the next will be 1.0% and 1.4%, with a consumer price inflation rate remaining at 1.8%. Singapore’s economic growth rates are expected to reach 2.0% and 1.9% for this year and the next, with consumer price inflation rates of 1.3% and 1.5% respectively. Hong Kong’s economic growth rates for this year and the next are projected to be 1.5% and 1.9%, with consumer price inflation rates of 1.9% and 2.2%.
The report predicts that the world’s largest economy, the United States, will see economic growth rates of 1.8% this year and 1.7% next year, with consumer price inflation rates of 3.0% and 2.5% respectively.