Entering 2024, the trend of the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party regime is becoming increasingly apparent. The highest power structure is in chaos, officials are lying low, the military is in dissent, and public grievances are mounting. The people’s anger towards the CCP regime is like a volcano ready to erupt at any moment. More and more intellectuals have observed that the CCP regime may collapse at any time, and how China will smoothly transition in the future is becoming a prominent issue.
The CCP has ruled China for over 70 years, causing unprecedented crises such as the loss of traditional culture, the decline of faith and morals, and ecological destruction. It will take a long time to rebuild and gradually restore these aspects. After the collapse of the CCP, a pressing issue that China will face is the crisis of national division created by the CCP.
The evil rule of the CCP has destroyed the constitutional framework of the five ethnic groups (Han, Manchu, Mongol, Hui, and Tibetan) republic during the period of the Republic of China. The CCP implemented ethnic genocide policies towards minority groups in border areas like Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia, leading to independence movements in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia.
After the collapse of the CCP, how to regain the trust of the border regions, and build a new country that is both democratic and sovereign, becomes a challenging issue for the future transitional government. Additionally, addressing the division of Taiwan Strait will require the future transitional government to establish a clear action plan. This article aims to propose feasible suggestions for these urgent issues for the future transitional government.
Communist regimes represent a modern historical backlash against tradition and democratic republicanism. From Lenin’s establishment of the first communist regime in 1917 to the collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1991, a historical phenomenon worth noting is that after the collapse of the Communist Party, most countries tend to return to their traditions and reinstate the legal lineage of the pre-communist regime, developing and improving upon it – as seen in Russia, Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Ukraine, and others.
Taking the example of Russia, closely tied to Chinese history, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian Federation was established, fully inheriting the legal lineage of the Russian Republic (First Republic of Russia) established during the February Revolution that Lenin overturned.
Similarly, considering that the CCP regime overturned the first democratic republic in modern Chinese history – the Republic of China – it would be the most historically logical choice for the Chinese people on the mainland to rebuild the legal lineage of the Republic of China after the collapse of the CCP. Furthermore, unlike the complete overthrow of Russia’s First Republic by the Soviet Union, the legal lineage of the Republic of China remains intact in Taiwan, with its constitutional achievements readily available.
The Republic of China experienced two phases on the mainland, under the Beiyang Government and the Nationalist Government of Nanjing, which can be referred to as the First Republic and the Second Republic. Enduring two great wars of national defense – the War of Resistance against Japan and the Civil War against the Communists (a rigorous national war defending the Chinese nation against the descendants of Marxism), the Republic of China still managed to establish its constitutional framework and system in 1947 amidst internal and external challenges. This marked the greatest achievement in a century of constitutional history in China, with the democracy and freedom of present-day Taiwan based on the 1947 Constitution.
The CCP’s rebellion overturned the constitutional system of the Republic of China on the mainland, leading to the division across the Taiwan Strait. In order to protect Taiwan and safeguard the last piece of free land of the Republic of China, the authoritarian rule of the Kuomintang in Taiwan continued for about 40 years until the 1990s when constitutional governance was achieved in Taiwan. Whether it be the mainland in the 1940s or Taiwan in the 1990s, the 1947 Constitution of the Republic of China remains the best resource for rebuilding constitutional governance in future China.
Rebuilding the government of the Republic of China on the mainland is the best way to reunify the two sides. Here, I present a historical logic and realistic proposal.
After the disintegration of the CCP, the new regime on the Chinese mainland (transitional government) can restore the national title to the Republic of China, with the national flag, emblem, and anthem reverting to those of the Republic of China, just like in present-day Taiwan. The mainland government can be named the Mainland Government of the Republic of China, and Taiwan can be called the Taiwan Government of the Republic of China (the current Taiwanese passports already fit this definition). Until unification is achieved, the two sides can operate under a “one country, two capitals” status.
Both governments will have equal political status. Upon reinstating the Republic of China’s seat at the United Nations, representatives from both sides will jointly form the institution representing the Republic of China at the UN, with an equal number of representatives from both sides voting in line with the identity of the Republic of China.
In international sports events, until unification, both sides can send their respective athletes as delegations – the mainland’s delegation will be known as the Mainland Delegation of the Republic of China, and Taiwan’s as the Taiwan Delegation of the Republic of China. Should they win awards, the national flag and anthem used will be those of the Republic of China.
Before unification, the mainland will be fully open to Taiwan (with a slow and controlled opening of Taiwan to the mainland to avoid large-scale population influx). The mainland will lift the household registration restrictions from the CCP era, allowing Taiwan residents holding Taiwanese passports to enjoy residence and operational rights identical to mainland residents, as well as economic rights, ensuring complete equality and national treatment. However, prior to unification, Taiwan residents cannot participate in mainland elections or hold positions in mainland government institutions. This setup allows Taiwanese businesses access to the vast mainland market, providing the most stable prospects for economic development and market assurance, solidifying bilateral relations and laying an economic and cultural foundation for future unification negotiations.
The future transitional government of China will return to the constitutional framework of the Five Nationalities Republic era and implement ethnic regional autonomy in ethnic minority areas such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc., by redrawing autonomous regions, negotiating the scope of autonomy rights, and establishing autonomy agreements. Apart from diplomacy, defense, and central fiscal revenues, the local residents in autonomous regions have the autonomy to form their own local government based on their cultural traditions and the autonomy rights granted by the Constitution of the Republic of China. Within the autonomous regions, there will be freedom of movement, allowing all ethnic groups to settle freely.
In Tibet, the immediate welcome of the Dalai Lama to return to the Republic of China and the establishment of a Tibetan autonomous government is necessary. In Xinjiang, the immediate release of detained Uighur people held in concentration camps and granting autonomy rights to minority residents of Xinjiang are key steps. In Inner Mongolia, ending the policy of cultural annihilation, allowing Mongolians to freely learn Mongolian language, and granting autonomy rights to the Mongolian people are essential measures.
Regarding foreign relations, the following discussion presents a long-term diplomatic direction for China after the collapse of the CCP. Some foreign relations aspects will need immediate adjustment by the transitional government, while others will require gradual adjustment and resolution, while some may remain as they are. The focus will mainly be on the United States, Japan, the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea, Russia, India, and other countries and regions, with diplomatic recommendations made by the author.
After the establishment of the transitional government, an immediate declaration to restore the Allied relations established with the United States during World War II as the Republic of China is essential, forming an alliance with the U.S. Ceasing the current unequal trade practices and intellectual property theft committed by the CCP, establishing an equal, free, and reciprocal trade relationship with the United States, complying with international law and trade agreements, to gradually lift various sanctions imposed during the CCP era, laying the foundation for the economic recovery and normal development of China. Choosing to align politically with the U.S., such as in conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war (if ongoing) or Middle East tension, supporting the Western camp led by the U.S. against aggression and terrorism.
A declaration should be made to develop a friendly relationship with Japan, discarding the anti-Japanese policies instigated by the CCP. Long-term negotiations with Japan about the ownership of the Diaoyu Islands based on historical documents and international law should be pursued (without rushing). Before a sovereignty settlement, a non-military zone should be demarcated around the Diaoyu Islands, with neither Chinese nor Japanese military forces or police allowed entry, and no exploitation of underwater resources permitted, except for civilian fishing vessels, with restricted numbers.
Regarding the South China Sea, based on the Republican era’s control and jurisdiction over the South China Sea, combined with the practical control areas during the CCP era, negotiations should be initiated with neighboring countries to jointly uphold the relevant sovereignty of the South China Sea under the auspices of the Republic of China. An emphasis on strengthening ties with the U.S. to ensure unimpeded international waterways in the South China Sea. Considering the South China Sea dispute’s complexities, the main principle is to ally with the U.S. and gradually resolve sovereignty disputes between China and neighboring countries within the U.S.-China alliance framework.
With India, a historical reference to the aid provided by the Republic of China during India’s independence should be emphasized, emphasizing negotiations based on the Sino-Indian border during the Republican era to resolve territorial disputes. Developing a friendly relationship with India, maintaining peaceful border relations until territorial disputes are resolved through negotiations (which may be prolonged).
Regarding North Korea, cooperating with the U.S. to strictly enforce sanctions on North Korea, cutting off aid to North Korea from the CCP era, supporting the U.S. in achieving denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles. Offering asylum to the Kim family as a condition (Kim Jong-un could choose exile in the U.S., China, or another Western country), in exchange for Kim Jong-un relinquishing power, restoring power to the people, and achieving democratic reunification of the Korean Peninsula.
In the case of Russia, the future mainland government of the Republic of China should clearly state that it does not recognize the territorial seizures forcibly conducted by Russia during the Qing era, reserving the right to reclaim the Northeast and Northwest territories forcefully taken by Imperial Russia in appropriate ways in the future. However, the goal should not be to fight against Russia but develop friendly relations, maintain peace and security on the current China-Russia border. Diplomatically, it is essential to firmly protect the legitimate rights of Chinese citizens trading in Russia. Should the Russia-Ukraine conflict persist, the future mainland government of the Republic of China will stand against the aggression and support Ukraine, demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops.
After unification, the Republic of China will establish a strategic relationship with a unified South Korea and Japan, forming a Northeast Asian Confucian cultural triangle, and a global strategic ally relationship with the U.S.