Once a popular successor to the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, Hu Chunhua quietly exited the Politburo and was reassigned as the Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Leading up to the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP set to convene in October, Hu Chunhua’s sudden increase in exposure has sparked speculation among observers.
On August 20, the CCP authorities held a ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Subsequently, Hu Chunhua, serving as one of the deputy heads of the central delegation, led a subgroup to inspect the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway project on August 22. Both projects are designated as major undertakings by the CCP, with the Yarlung Tsangpo project, also known as the Motuo Hydropower Station, boasting a dam and reservoir scale far surpassing that of the Three Gorges Dam. Hu Chunhua’s inspection made him the center of attention.
Renowned media figure Yan Chungou posted on Facebook on September 1, remarking that following Xi Jinping’s visit to Tibet, inspection visits by delegation members to local places in Tibet seemed routine, except for Hu Chunhua’s visit to the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project. This project, which Xi had personally signed off on, was significant, and the fact that Hu Chunhua stepped in while Xi did not suggests a difference in his role compared to other delegation members. Moreover, as Hu Chunhua is only the Vice Chairman of the CPPCC and not an expert in hydropower, nor involved in Tibetan affairs, his visit to inspect the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower station raises questions.
Yan Chungou further commented that although Hu Chunhua had previously worked in Tibet for a long time, according to CCP norms, once a cadre leaves their jurisdiction, they typically avoid involvement to steer clear of suspicions. Therefore, Hu Chunhua’s visit was certainly not by his own initiative but must have been arranged by the central authorities. Additionally, since the announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project had been recent, there was little substantial reason for inspection, indicating a deliberate move to give Hu Chunhua a distinctive public appearance among other central delegation members.
Five days later, on August 27, Hu Chunhua appeared in Changchun, Jilin, to attend the opening ceremony of the 15th China-Northeast Asia Expo and deliver a speech. Hu Chunhua had previously attended this expo in August 2019 while serving as a Vice Premier of the State Council and a member of the CCP Politburo. However, his current role as Vice Chairman of the CPPCC carries less weight than that of a Vice Premier, stirring uncertainties surrounding his recent activities.
Furthermore, on the morning of June 23, the twelfth meeting of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the CPPCC was held in Beijing, focusing on consultations concerning the so-called “further deepening of economic system reforms” issues, with Hu Chunhua presiding over the opening session.
Ranked second among the Vice Chairmen of the CPPCC, Hu Chunhua presided over the opening session for the first time during the past twelve Standing Committee meetings, particularly at a meeting related to reforms, raising eyebrows among observers.
Since the era of Deng Xiaoping, the CCP has established a succession plan for top leadership. With Xi Jinping in power, two young Politburo members, Hu Chunhua and Sun Zhengcai, were considered as potential successors. However, prior to the Nineteenth Party Congress in October 2017, Sun Zhengcai fell from grace, while Hu Chunhua did not advance to become a member of the Political Bureau Standing Committee and instead assumed the position of the third-ranking Vice Premier of the State Council.
By the Twentieth National Congress of the CCP in October 2022, Xi Jinping secured his third term as the party leader. Nevertheless, a dramatic scene unfolded during the closing session when Hu Jintao, a former party leader supporting Hu Chunhua, was escorted out of the venue. Hu Chunhua failed to retain his position as a member of the Political Bureau, subsequently being reassigned as the second-ranking Vice Chairman of the CPPCC the following year. Consequently, he acquired the moniker of the “wasted crown prince” among observers.
Over the past three years, Hu Chunhua has maintained a low profile, constantly heaping praise on Xi Jinping in his public statements; nonetheless, his movements continue to attract scrutiny.
Rumors circulating overseas in recent times have hinted at Xi Jinping’s unstable grip on power and possible health issues. With the Fourth Plenary Session of the Twentieth Central Committee of the CCP scheduled for October, speculations abound regarding potential personnel adjustments during this meeting, with Hu Chunhua’s position also under scrutiny.
Yan Chungou noted that although Hu Chunhua’s association with certain factions may pose a political liability, he is indeed one of the figures designated by the Hu-Wen administration to succeed Xi Jinping in the highest echelons of power, a decision grounded on the principle passed down by Deng Xiaoping. Whether Hu Chunhua’s resignation from the Political Bureau membership serves as a strategic retreat to maintain a certain level of visibility without actually wielding power while navigating the corridors of power remains a subject of conjecture.
Yan Chungou further opined that theoretically, Hu Chunhua’s reentry into the Political Bureau or his promotion to its Standing Committee should wait until the Twenty-First Congress; however, there is currently a vacancy among the members of the Political Bureau, which he himself had left. If this vacancy is filled during the Fourth Plenary Session, it would not be considered a violation of protocol.