On April 30th, the Taiwan Institute for National Policy Research held a symposium to discuss the challenges and reshaping of the international order brought about by the Trump administration. Scholars and experts were invited to analyze the topic.
Professor Fan Shiping from the Department of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan Normal University stated that the only country temporarily exempt from tax by Trump is communist China, while other nations face increased tariffs up to 125%. This highlights Trump’s “isolationist” approach towards China, aiming to isolate the country globally. By leveraging China’s typical united front tactics, Trump aims to make 85 countries fear retaliatory tariffs and 75 countries appreciate tax reductions and extensions, showcasing authority by targeting China and gaining global attention and influence.
Dong Liwen, Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Peace Research Foundation, mentioned that apart from tariff disputes, the US-China confrontation extends to various areas including technology, military, geopolitics, and structural resilience. Both countries have expressed willingness to negotiate, but delay may complicate talks. Without effective containment measures in place, there is uncertainty whether the stalemate will continue or escalate into a full-blown conflict.
Former Taiwanese representative to the US, David Lee, stressed the increasing strategic competition between the US and China. The escalating tensions have led to a cycle of retaliation, with both sides acknowledging the need to counter each other. The relationship has reached a new low, making it challenging to reset the dynamics.
Professor Lin Changqing from National Cheng Kung University discussed Trump’s international economic strategy, which aims to reshape the global economic order through various aggressive measures. Domestically, the strategy focuses on stimulating investment and reducing production costs to boost the economy and consumer spending. The US’s low trade dependence (24%-26%) allows for more aggressive tariff policies, coupled with efforts to cut unnecessary government spending to address fiscal deficits.
Lin further explained that the US’s reciprocal tariff negotiations can be categorized into three levels: “entrance fee” (basic tariff of 10%), “concession fee” (shared between the US and partner countries, i.e., Taiwan at 22%), and promoting investment in the US and granting exemptions for key imports as cooperation incentives. This aims to establish a new partnership network beneficial to the US.
Lien Hsien-ming, Director of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, pointed out that in the first hundred days of Trump’s new policy, there have been successive waves of international trade policies, including fentanyl control, restrictions on steel and aluminum products, and tariff conflicts. China is the only country subject to the US’s effective “reciprocal tariffs,” with rates soaring to 145%. While Taiwan faces a 32% tariff increase, certain products like semiconductors and mobile devices are temporarily exempt for 90 days. Taiwanese companies are urged to seize this opportunity by investing in the US, establishing their brands in the vast market, and enhancing marketing, business, and legal talent.
Special Professor and Director of the Department of Financial Management at Sun Yat-sen University, Tsai Wei-che, highlighted that according to White House trade advisor Navarro, reciprocal tariffs could generate up to an additional $600 billion in annual revenue for the US. He praised Taiwan’s prompt response, increasing the budget allocation from NT$88 billion (~$2.92 billion USD) to NT$410 billion (~$13.61 billion USD) to reinforce economic resilience and security. However, there are still areas where improvements are needed in terms of scope and intensity.
Tsai suggested that the government should first provide concrete support to traditional industries, promote the transformation of manufacturing towards higher quality and value-added production, and enhance capabilities in smart manufacturing and digital transformation. Secondly, assisting domestic firms in establishing more flexible regional placements and accelerating the “relocating from China to the North” strategy by diversifying market presence in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Lastly, creating a diversified industrial supply chain to encourage the establishment of high-standard, transparent production systems to compete effectively against China’s supply chain.
Vice Chairman of the Taiwan Electric Vehicle Alliance and Chairman of M Mobility, Zheng Xiancong, emphasized that Trump’s new policies are accelerating global economic restructuring, prompting Taiwan’s government and industries to reassess the country’s role. Industries must upgrade and diversify, moving away from reliance on a single market. For example, the electric vehicle industry should expand towards markets in Central and South America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. With Taiwan’s complete industrial chain, focusing on electric vehicles, drones, and AI as key advantageous industries, the government should make swift and effective decisions based on industry categories and strategic deployments.
Huang Richan, Founder and Chairman of Taiwan’s Industry Innovation Platform, noted that Taiwan’s industries have undergone challenges and transformation within the red supply chain in recent years. After transitioning, the industry has shown improvement and should continue organizational reform and talent development efforts. While large enterprises have begun the process, small and medium-sized enterprises must catch up promptly. Technology industries should focus on value upgrading, while traditional industries need to diversify their markets.
Research Fellow at the Institute of European and American Studies at the Academia Sinica, Lin Cheng-yi, emphasized that to restore America’s greatness, Trump needs to prioritize areas of mutual concern with allies. This includes reducing dependence on China for critical goods like pharmaceutical ingredients and rare earth metals, establishing supply chains in the free world, and collaborating to counter China’s export subsidy practices.
Senior Advisor at the Institute for National Policy Research and former legislator, Lawrence Lo, mentioned that during Trump’s first three months in office, he signed over a hundred executive orders while proposed bills from the administration decreased. Long-term relations between Taiwan and the US depend on congressional support, urging adjustments to the direction and priorities of the Taiwan-US relationship. With Trump’s lengthy term, efforts to enhance Taiwan-US ties should be met with various prepared responses.
Director of the Institute for National Policy Research, Tian Hongmao, stressed that the government must understand the political and economic situation in China. Internal struggles within the communist party, coupled with economic challenges like fiscal imbalance, rising unemployment, increased debt, and decreased tax revenues, necessitate vigilance for Taiwanese businesses conducting operations in China, as the effects may manifest within the next couple of years.
Tian also highlighted the importance of directing diplomatic efforts towards key countries beyond traditional allies like the US, Japan, and the EU. Strengthening relationships with the Philippines and India is vital, especially as the US establishes multiple military bases in the Philippines, signifying the geopolitical significance and aligning with Taiwan’s Southbound Policy. India, as the world’s most populous democracy with advanced software technology, complements Taiwan and is likely to support US international strategies. It is essential for the government to allocate diplomatic resources effectively to foster mutually beneficial relationships with these countries.